MLB Results — July 23, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 23, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Ian Seymour 25.4% No Home Run

#2 Jackson Merrill— · vs Chris Sale 24.1% No Home Run

#3 Byron Buxton— · vs Gavin Williams 24.1% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Casey Legumina 24.1% No Home Run

#5 Royce Lewis— · vs Gavin Williams 21.6% No Home Run

#6 Salvador Perez— · vs Troy Melton 18.9% No Home Run

#7 Austin Riley— · vs Griffin Canning 18.6% No Home Run

#8 Alec Burleson— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 18.6% No Home Run

#9 Matt Olson— · vs Griffin Canning 18.6% No Home Run

#10 Carter Jensen— · vs Troy Melton 18.6% No Home Run

#11 Michael Harris II— · vs Griffin Canning 18.6% Home Run

#12 Austin Riley— · vs Kyle Hart 18.6% No Home Run

#13 José Ramírez— · vs Taj Bradley 18.6% No Home Run

#14 Kyle Manzardo— · vs Taj Bradley 18.6% No Home Run

#15 Rhys Hoskins— · vs Taj Bradley 18.6% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chris Salevs San Diego Padres 7.2 11 +3.8

Troy Meltonvs Kansas City Royals 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Gavin Williamsvs Minnesota Twins 5.5 11 +5.5

Taj Bradleyvs Cleveland Guardians 5.4 5 -0.4On target

Griffin Canningvs Atlanta Braves 4.8 4 -0.8On target

Brandon Pfaadtvs St. Louis Cardinals 4.4 1 -3.4

Michael McGreevyvs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.4 3 -1.4

Shane Biebervs Tampa Bay Rays 4.0 3 -1.0

Randy Dobnakvs Detroit Tigers 3.6 3 -0.6On target

Ian Seymourvs Toronto Blue Jays 3.3 7 +3.7

Kyle Hartvs Atlanta Braves 2.8 1 -1.8

Casey Leguminavs Toronto Blue Jays 2.6 2 -0.6On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Riley Greene— · vs Randy Dobnak 62.2% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Shane Bieber 61.8% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Chris Sale 61.8% Hit

Kevin McGonigle— · vs Randy Dobnak 61.4% Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Shane Bieber 61.2% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Gavin Williams 61.0% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 60.6% Hit

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Casey Legumina 60.5% Hit

Dillon Dingler— · vs Randy Dobnak 60.3% Hit

Drake Baldwin— · vs Kyle Hart 59.9% Hit

Jonathan ArandaTampa Bay Rays · vs Shane Bieber 59.6% No Hit

Michael Harris II— · vs Kyle Hart 59.5% Hit

Matt Olson— · vs Kyle Hart 59.1% No Hit

Gleyber Torres— · vs Randy Dobnak 58.9% Hit

Gabriel Moreno— · vs Michael McGreevy 58.9% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Michael Harris II — 18.6% HR probability
Michael Harris II — 18.5% HR probability
Drake Baldwin — 15.3% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chris Sale — proj 7.2, recorded 11
Gavin Williams — proj 5.5, recorded 11
Ian Seymour — proj 3.3, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Gavin Williams — proj 5.5, recorded 11
Chris Sale — proj 7.2, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Michael Harris II. Model HR probability 18.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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