Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 23, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
6
Games covered
151
Hitters evaluated
12
Pitchers evaluated
July 23, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | San Diego Padres | 7.2 | 11 | +3.8 | |
| Troy Melton | Kansas City Royals | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Minnesota Twins | 5.5 | 11 | +5.5 | |
| Taj Bradley | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Griffin Canning | Atlanta Braves | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Brandon Pfaadt | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.4 | 1 | -3.4 | |
| Michael McGreevy | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 | |
| Shane Bieber | Tampa Bay Rays | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| Randy Dobnak | Detroit Tigers | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Ian Seymour | Toronto Blue Jays | 3.3 | 7 | +3.7 | |
| Kyle Hart | Atlanta Braves | 2.8 | 1 | -1.8 | |
| Casey Legumina | Toronto Blue Jays | 2.6 | 2 | -0.6 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chris Sale — proj 7.2, recorded 11
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.5, recorded 11
- Ian Seymour — proj 3.3, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.5, recorded 11
- Chris Sale — proj 7.2, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Chris Sale. Projected 7.2 strikeouts — recorded 11.
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