MLB Results — July 19, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 19, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Jahmai Jones— · vs Shane McClanahan 31.5% No Home Run

#2 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Robert Gasser 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Sean Burke 30.7% No Home Run

#4 Royce Lewis— · vs Shota Imanaga 28.6% No Home Run

#5 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Nolan McLean 27.4% No Home Run

#6 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Brandon Young 26.5% No Home Run

#7 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Cam Schlittler 25.0% No Home Run

#8 Jackson Merrill— · vs Noah Cameron 25.0% Home Run

#9 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Trey Yesavage 25.0% No Home Run

#10 Zach Neto— · vs Casey Mize 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Colson Montgomery— · vs Trey Yesavage 24.4% Home Run

#12 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Ryan Feltner 24.4% No Home Run

#13 Hunter Goodman— · vs Hunter Greene 24.2% Home Run

#14 Austin Riley— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 24.1% Home Run

#15 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Trey Yesavage 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Hunter Greenevs Colorado Rockies 7.9 7 -0.9On target

Nolan McLeanvs Philadelphia Phillies 6.4 10 +3.6

Casey Mizevs Los Angeles Angels 5.9 5 -0.9On target

Eury Pérezvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.9 9 +3.1

Nathan Eovaldivs Atlanta Braves 5.7 2 -3.7

Logan Gilbertvs San Francisco Giants 5.6 10 +4.4

Paul Skenesvs Cleveland Guardians 5.6 8 +2.4

Cam Schlittlervs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.5 8 +2.5

Shota Imanagavs Minnesota Twins 5.4 4 -1.4

Sean Burkevs Toronto Blue Jays 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs New York Yankees 5.3 7 +1.7

Foster Griffinvs Athletics 5.0 2 -3.0

Hunter Brownvs Baltimore Orioles 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Joey Cantillovs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9 7 +2.1

Sonny Grayvs Tampa Bay Rays 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Brandon Young 63.6% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Ryan Feltner 62.2% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Cam Schlittler 62.2% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Unknown Pitcher 61.1% Hit

JJ Bleday— · vs Ryan Feltner 61.1% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Alan Rangel 61.1% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Noah Cameron 61.1% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 61.0% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Sonny Gray 61.0% No Hit

James Wood— · vs Jacob Lopez 61.0% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Nolan McLean 60.8% No Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Alan Rangel 60.8% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Joey Cantillo 60.7% No Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Shane McClanahan 60.7% No Hit

Spencer Steer— · vs Ryan Feltner 60.6% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Jackson Merrill — 25.0% HR probability
Colson Montgomery — 24.4% HR probability
Hunter Goodman — 24.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Nolan McLean — proj 6.4, recorded 10
Eury Pérez — proj 5.9, recorded 9
Logan Gilbert — proj 5.6, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

Logan Gilbert — proj 5.6, recorded 10
Trey Yesavage — proj 4.8, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Jackson Merrill. Model HR probability 25.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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