MLB Results — July 19, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 19, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

423

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 19, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Jahmai Jones	—	vs Shane McClanahan	31.5%	No Home Run
#2	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Robert Gasser	31.0%	No Home Run
#3	Kazuma Okamoto	—	vs Sean Burke	30.7%	No Home Run
#4	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	vs Shota Imanaga	28.6%	No Home Run
#5	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Nolan McLean	27.4%	No Home Run
#6	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Brandon Young	26.5%	No Home Run
#7	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Cam Schlittler	25.0%	No Home Run
#8	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Noah Cameron	25.0%	Home Run
#9	Andrew Benintendi	—	vs Trey Yesavage	25.0%	No Home Run
#10	Zach Neto	—	vs Casey Mize	25.0%	No Home Run
#11	Colson Montgomery	—	vs Trey Yesavage	24.4%	Home Run
#12	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Ryan Feltner	24.4%	No Home Run
#13	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Hunter Greene	24.2%	Home Run
#14	Austin Riley	—	vs Nathan Eovaldi	24.1%	Home Run
#15	Munetaka Murakami	—	vs Trey Yesavage	24.1%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Hunter Greene	Colorado Rockies	7.9	7	-0.9	On Target
Nolan McLean	Philadelphia Phillies	6.4	10	+3.6
Casey Mize	Los Angeles Angels	5.9	5	-0.9	On Target
Eury Pérez	Milwaukee Brewers	5.9	9	+3.1
Nathan Eovaldi	Atlanta Braves	5.7	2	-3.7
Logan Gilbert	San Francisco Giants	5.6	10	+4.4
Paul Skenes	Cleveland Guardians	5.6	8	+2.4
Cam Schlittler	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.5	8	+2.5
Shota Imanaga	Minnesota Twins	5.4	4	-1.4
Sean Burke	Toronto Blue Jays	5.3	5	-0.3	On Target
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	New York Yankees	5.3	7	+1.7
Foster Griffin	Athletics	5.0	2	-3.0
Hunter Brown	Baltimore Orioles	4.9	4	-0.9	On Target
Joey Cantillo	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.9	7	+2.1
Sonny Gray	Tampa Bay Rays	4.9	5	+0.1	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Brandon Young	63.6%	Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Ryan Feltner	62.2%	Hit
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Cam Schlittler	62.2%	Hit
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Unknown Pitcher	61.1%	Hit
JJ Bleday	—	vs Ryan Feltner	61.1%	Hit
Juan Soto	New York Mets	vs Alan Rangel	61.1%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Noah Cameron	61.1%	Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto	61.0%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Sonny Gray	61.0%	No Hit
James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Jacob Lopez	61.0%	No Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Nolan McLean	60.8%	No Hit
Brett Baty	New York Mets	vs Alan Rangel	60.8%	Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Joey Cantillo	60.7%	No Hit
Wilyer Abreu	Boston Red Sox	vs Shane McClanahan	60.7%	No Hit
Spencer Steer	—	vs Ryan Feltner	60.6%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Jackson Merrill. Model HR probability 25.0% — result: Home Run.

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