MLB Results — July 18, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 18, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Shane Drohan 30.9% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Spencer Arrighetti 30.8% No Home Run

#3 Mickey Moniak— · vs Rhett Lowder 30.3% No Home Run

#4 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Trevor Rogers 26.6% No Home Run

#5 Zach Neto— · vs Tarik Skubal 26.1% No Home Run

#6 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Ryan Weathers 25.4% No Home Run

#7 Brandon Lowe— · vs Gavin Williams 25.0% No Home Run

#8 Jackson Merrill— · vs Randy Dobnak 25.0% No Home Run

#9 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Sean Manaea 24.4% Home Run

#10 Jac Caglianone— · vs Griffin Canning 24.4% No Home Run

#11 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 24.3% No Home Run

#12 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Davis Martin 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Francisco Lindor— · vs Jesús Luzardo 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Salvador Perez— · vs Griffin Canning 23.9% Home Run

#15 Ketel Marte— · vs Dustin May 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs Los Angeles Angels 7.3 9 +1.7

Jared Jonesvs Cleveland Guardians 6.0 9 +3.0

Max Meyervs Milwaukee Brewers 5.6 5 -0.6On target

MacKenzie Gorevs Atlanta Braves 5.6 7 +1.4

Jesús Luzardovs New York Mets 5.6 7 +1.4

Gavin Williamsvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4 11 +5.6

Patrick Sandovalvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Sean Manaeavs Philadelphia Phillies 4.9 7 +2.1

Matthew Boydvs Minnesota Twins 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Shane Drohanvs Miami Marlins 4.9 9 +4.1

Spencer Arrighettivs Baltimore Orioles 4.9 6 +1.1

Bryan Woovs San Francisco Giants 4.9 7 +2.1

Griffin Canningvs Kansas City Royals 4.5 4 -0.5On target

Dustin Mayvs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.3 6 +1.7

Taj Bradleyvs Chicago Cubs 4.2 6 +1.8

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 64.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Trevor Rogers 63.0% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Randy Dobnak 63.0% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Ryan Weathers 62.8% Hit

Edouard Julien— · vs Rhett Lowder 62.6% Hit

JJ Bleday— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 62.3% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Rhett Lowder 62.2% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Jesús Luzardo 62.1% No Hit

Mickey Moniak— · vs Rhett Lowder 62.0% Hit

Jake McCarthy— · vs Rhett Lowder 61.9% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Sean Manaea 61.8% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Sean Manaea 61.8% Hit

Spencer Steer— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 61.8% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Patrick Sandoval 61.7% Hit

Willi Castro— · vs Rhett Lowder 61.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kyle Schwarber — 24.4% HR probability
Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability
Willy Adames — 23.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tarik Skubal — proj 7.3, recorded 9
Jared Jones — proj 6.0, recorded 9
Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.6, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Gavin Williams — proj 5.4, recorded 11
Shane Drohan — proj 4.9, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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