MLB Results — July 20, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 20, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Payton Tolle 31.4% No Home Run

#2 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Emmet Sheehan 31.2% No Home Run

#3 Brandon Lowe— · vs Ryan Weathers 30.6% No Home Run

#4 Pete Alonso— · vs Payton Tolle 29.4% No Home Run

#5 Hunter Goodman— · vs Andrew Alvarez 28.0% No Home Run

#6 James Wood— · vs Kyle Freeland 27.9% No Home Run

#7 Jac Caglianone— · vs Trevor McDonald 26.5% No Home Run

#8 Tyler O'Neill— · vs Payton Tolle 25.6% No Home Run

#9 Byron Buxton— · vs Tanner Bibee 25.4% No Home Run

#10 Royce Lewis— · vs Tanner Bibee 25.2% No Home Run

#11 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Jacob deGrom 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Colson Montgomery— · vs Jacob deGrom 24.4% No Home Run

#13 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Janson Junk 24.2% Home Run

#14 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Nick Martinez 24.2% No Home Run

#15 Ketel Marte— · vs Jeffrey Springs 24.1% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs New York Mets 7.3 6 -1.3

Emmet Sheehanvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Dylan Ceasevs Tampa Bay Rays 5.8 7 +1.2

Ryan Weathersvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Payton Tollevs Baltimore Orioles 5.7 9 +3.3

Jacob deGromvs Chicago White Sox 5.6 6 +0.4On target

Jack Flahertyvs Chicago Cubs 5.6 4 -1.6

Joe Ryanvs Cleveland Guardians 5.6 3 -2.6

Braxton Ashcraftvs New York Yankees 5.5 2 -3.5

Ronel Blancovs Miami Marlins 5.5 8 +2.5

George Kirbyvs Cincinnati Reds 5.4 6 +0.6On target

Cristopher Sánchezvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.3 7 +1.7

José Sorianovs St. Louis Cardinals 5.1 7 +1.9

Andrew Alvarezvs Colorado Rockies 5.1 2 -3.1

Shane Bazvs Boston Red Sox 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Janson Junk 62.5% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 62.3% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Bryce Elder 62.2% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Mitch Bratt 62.1% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Emmet Sheehan 62.1% Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Mitch Bratt 61.9% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Michael Wacha 61.6% Hit

James Wood— · vs Kyle Freeland 61.5% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Kyle Freeland 61.4% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Emmet Sheehan 61.4% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Braxton Ashcraft 61.4% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Emmet Sheehan 61.3% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 61.2% No Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Tanner Bibee 61.1% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Ryan Weathers 61.1% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Yordan Alvarez — 24.2% HR probability
Ketel Marte — 24.1% HR probability
Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Emmet Sheehan — proj 5.9, recorded 6
Dylan Cease — proj 5.8, recorded 7
Payton Tolle — proj 5.7, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Nick Martinez — proj 4.1, recorded 0
Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.5, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 24.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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