MLB Results — July 20, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 20, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

396

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 20, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs Payton Tolle	31.4%	No Home Run
#2	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Emmet Sheehan	31.2%	No Home Run
#3	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Ryan Weathers	30.6%	No Home Run
#4	Pete Alonso	—	vs Payton Tolle	29.4%	No Home Run
#5	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Andrew Alvarez	28.0%	No Home Run
#6	James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Kyle Freeland	27.9%	No Home Run
#7	Jac Caglianone	—	vs Trevor McDonald	26.5%	No Home Run
#8	Tyler O'Neill	—	vs Payton Tolle	25.6%	No Home Run
#9	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	vs Tanner Bibee	25.4%	No Home Run
#10	Royce Lewis	—	vs Tanner Bibee	25.2%	No Home Run
#11	Andrew Benintendi	—	vs Jacob deGrom	25.0%	No Home Run
#12	Colson Montgomery	Chicago White Sox	vs Jacob deGrom	24.4%	No Home Run
#13	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Janson Junk	24.2%	Home Run
#14	Kazuma Okamoto	—	vs Nick Martinez	24.2%	No Home Run
#15	Munetaka Murakami	—	vs Jacob deGrom	24.1%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Jacob Misiorowski	New York Mets	7.3	6	-1.3
Emmet Sheehan	Philadelphia Phillies	5.9	6	+0.1	On Target
Dylan Cease	Tampa Bay Rays	5.8	7	+1.2
Ryan Weathers	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Payton Tolle	Baltimore Orioles	5.7	9	+3.3
Jacob deGrom	Chicago White Sox	5.6	6	+0.4	On Target
Jack Flaherty	Chicago Cubs	5.6	4	-1.6
Joe Ryan	Cleveland Guardians	5.6	3	-2.6
Braxton Ashcraft	New York Yankees	5.5	2	-3.5
Ronel Blanco	Miami Marlins	5.5	8	+2.5
George Kirby	Cincinnati Reds	5.4	6	+0.6	On Target
Cristopher Sánchez	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.3	7	+1.7
José Soriano	St. Louis Cardinals	5.1	7	+1.9
Andrew Alvarez	Colorado Rockies	5.1	2	-3.1
Shane Baz	Boston Red Sox	5.1	6	+0.9	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Janson Junk	62.5%	Hit
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Cristopher Sánchez	62.3%	No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Bryce Elder	62.2%	No Hit
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Mitch Bratt	62.1%	Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Emmet Sheehan	62.1%	Hit
Shea Langeliers	Athletics	vs Mitch Bratt	61.9%	Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Michael Wacha	61.6%	Hit
James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Kyle Freeland	61.5%	Hit
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	vs Kyle Freeland	61.4%	Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Braxton Ashcraft	61.4%	Hit
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Emmet Sheehan	61.4%	No Hit
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Emmet Sheehan	61.3%	Hit
Juan Soto	New York Mets	vs Jacob Misiorowski	61.2%	No Hit
Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	vs Tanner Bibee	61.1%	Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Ryan Weathers	61.1%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 24.2% — result: Home Run.

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