MLB Results — June 23, 2026

MLB Model Results — June 23, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Sonny Gray 23.5% No Home Run

#2 Byron Buxton— · vs Justin Wrobleski 23.2% No Home Run

#3 Bryce Harper— · vs Zack Littell 23.1% No Home Run

#4 Christian Walker— · vs Shane Bieber 23.1% No Home Run

#5 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Shane Bieber 23.0% No Home Run

#6 Cal Raleigh— · vs Mitch Keller 22.9% Home Run

#7 Pete Alonso— · vs Ryan Johnson 22.9% No Home Run

#8 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Peter Lambert 22.8% No Home Run

#9 Brandon Lowe— · vs George Kirby 22.7% No Home Run

#10 Colson Montgomery— · vs Parker Messick 22.5% No Home Run

#11 Juan Soto— · vs Edward Cabrera 22.4% No Home Run

#12 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs JR Ritchie 22.3% Home Run

#13 Nick Kurtz— · vs Robbie Ray 22.3% No Home Run

#14 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Luinder Avila 19.5% Home Run

#15 Rafael Devers— · vs Aaron Civale 19.5% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Carlos Rodónvs Detroit Tigers 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Parker Messickvs Chicago White Sox 5.8 10 +4.2

Jesús Luzardovs Washington Nationals 5.7 13 +7.3

Casey Mizevs New York Yankees 5.4 6 +0.6On target

Shane Biebervs Houston Astros 5.3 2 -3.3

Sean Burkevs Cleveland Guardians 5.2 6 +0.8On target

George Kirbyvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Shane McClanahanvs Kansas City Royals 5.0 4 -1.0On target

Brandon Sproatvs Cincinnati Reds 5.0 10 +5.0

Shane Bazvs Los Angeles Angels 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Peter Lambertvs Toronto Blue Jays 4.5 6 +1.5

Sandy Alcantaravs Texas Rangers 4.0 4 -0.0On target

Zack Littellvs Philadelphia Phillies 3.9 5 +1.1

Edward Cabreravs New York Mets 3.9 4 +0.1On target

Mitch Kellervs Seattle Mariners 3.9 4 +0.1On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Ryan Johnson 61.5% Hit

Jose Altuve— · vs Shane Bieber 60.4% Hit

George Springer— · vs Peter Lambert 60.3% Hit

Alec Bohm— · vs Zack Littell 59.2% Hit

Leody Taveras— · vs Ryan Johnson 58.9% Hit

Bryson Stott— · vs Zack Littell 58.9% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Zack Littell 58.7% Hit

Corbin Carroll— · vs Kyle Leahy 58.3% No Hit

Yainer Diaz— · vs Shane Bieber 58.3% Hit

Brandon Valenzuela— · vs Peter Lambert 57.9% No Hit

Jose Siri— · vs Shane Baz 57.6% Hit

Esteury Ruiz— · vs Cal Quantrill 57.5% No Hit

Connor Wong— · vs Sean Sullivan 57.3% Hit

Isaac Paredes— · vs Shane Bieber 57.3% Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Ryan Johnson 57.1% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Cal Raleigh — 22.9% HR probability
Fernando Tatis Jr. — 22.3% HR probability
Junior Caminero — 19.5% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Parker Messick — proj 5.8, recorded 10
Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.7, recorded 13
Casey Mize — proj 5.4, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.7, recorded 13
Sonny Gray — proj 3.9, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Cal Raleigh. Model HR probability 22.9% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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