Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 8, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
446
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
September 8, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tanner Bibee | 31.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Sean Burke | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Sean Manaea | 30.8% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Cam Schlittler | 30.8% | Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hayden Wesneski | 29.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Riley Cornelio | 27.7% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Jack Perkins | 27.3% | Home Run |
| #8 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Riley Cornelio | 26.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Reid Detmers | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Landen Roupp | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Andrew Painter | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Zach Neto | — | vs Patrick Sandoval | 25.0% | Home Run |
| #13 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Cal Quantrill | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Bryce Miller | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Cincinnati Reds | 8.4 | 5 | -3.4 | |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Chicago Cubs | 7.2 | 9 | +1.8 | |
| Sean Burke | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.7 | 2 | -4.7 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Colorado Rockies | 6.5 | 10 | +3.5 | |
| Sean Manaea | Miami Marlins | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 | |
| Bryce Miller | Texas Rangers | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Patrick Sandoval | Los Angeles Angels | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Atlanta Braves | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| José Soriano | Athletics | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Andrew Painter | Houston Astros | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Jack Perkins | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Corbin Burnes | Kansas City Royals | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 | |
| Tanner Bibee | Baltimore Orioles | 5.2 | 1 | -4.2 | |
| Dean Kremer | Detroit Tigers | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Hayden Wesneski | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Riley Cornelio | 62.5% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Andrew Painter | 62.5% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hayden Wesneski | 61.7% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Quinn Mathews | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | vs Gabriel Hughes | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Tarik Skubal | 60.9% | Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | Milwaukee Brewers | vs David Peterson | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs AJ Smith-Shawver | 60.9% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Gabriel Hughes | 60.7% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hayden Wesneski | 60.6% | Hit |
| Teoscar Hernández | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 60.6% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Sean Burke | 60.5% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Sandy Alcantara | 60.5% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Sandy Alcantara | 60.4% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 30.8% HR probability
- Kazuma Okamoto — 27.3% HR probability
- Zach Neto — 25.0% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 7.2, recorded 9
- Cam Schlittler — proj 6.5, recorded 10
- Bryce Miller — proj 5.6, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Sean Burke — proj 6.7, recorded 2
- Tanner Bibee — proj 5.2, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 30.8% — result: Home Run.
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