Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 9, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
436
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
September 9, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Foster Griffin | 31.8% | Home Run |
| #2 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Lake Bachar | 30.3% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Robert Stock | 29.8% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Brown | 27.9% | Home Run |
| #5 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Brady Basso | 27.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Will Warren | 27.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Zac Gallen | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Zach Neto | — | vs Jake Bennett | 26.1% | Home Run |
| #9 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Blade Tidwell | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | vs Zebby Matthews | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Zac Gallen | 24.4% | Home Run |
| #12 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Griffin Jax | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Foster Griffin | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Cody Bradford | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Davis Martin | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Cincinnati Reds | 7.8 | 10 | +2.2 | |
| Logan Henderson | Chicago Cubs | 7.3 | 6 | -1.3 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Houston Astros | 7.1 | 3 | -4.1 | |
| Jake Bennett | Los Angeles Angels | 6.4 | 2 | -4.4 | |
| Hunter Brown | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | Baltimore Orioles | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Kevin Gausman | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Zebby Matthews | Detroit Tigers | 5.6 | 2 | -3.6 | |
| Will Warren | Colorado Rockies | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 | |
| Griffin Jax | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | 2 | -3.2 | |
| Shane Baz | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Walker Buehler | Washington Nationals | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Jackson Kent | San Diego Padres | 4.0 | 2 | -2.0 | |
| Andre Pallante | San Francisco Giants | 4.0 | 4 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Ryan Johnson | Boston Red Sox | 3.9 | 5 | +1.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 64.5% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Jackson Kent | 64.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Brown | 64.1% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Janson Junk | 62.7% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 62.4% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Hunter Brown | 62.2% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 62.2% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Reynaldo López | 62.2% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Janson Junk | 62.2% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Robert Stock | 62.2% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 62.1% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs Ryan Johnson | 62.1% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Cody Bradford | 62.0% | Hit |
| James Wood | — | vs Walker Buehler | 61.9% | Hit |
| Mickey Gasper | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 61.5% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Coby Mayo — 31.8% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 27.9% HR probability
- Zach Neto — 26.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 7.8, recorded 10
- Hunter Brown — proj 6.0, recorded 7
- Kevin Gausman — proj 5.9, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Jake Bennett — proj 6.4, recorded 2
- Cristopher Sánchez — proj 7.1, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.8% — result: Home Run.
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