Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 7, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
12
Games covered
353
Hitters evaluated
24
Pitchers evaluated
September 7, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Joey Cantillo | 31.8% | Home Run |
| #2 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Chase Burns | 30.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Grant Holmes | 29.0% | Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Jacob Lopez | 27.3% | Home Run |
| #5 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Jonah Tong | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Derek Law | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Logan Webb | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Derek Law | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | vs Joe Ryan | 24.2% | Home Run |
| #10 | Jo Adell | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Joey Cantillo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Zach Neto | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Jesús Luzardo | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Max Muncy | — | vs Chase Burns | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Eury Pérez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Athletics | 8.6 | 6 | -2.6 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Atlanta Braves | 7.4 | 12 | +4.6 | |
| Emmet Sheehan | Cincinnati Reds | 6.1 | 10 | +3.9 | |
| Nick Pivetta | Washington Nationals | 6.0 | 2 | -4.0 | |
| Joe Ryan | Detroit Tigers | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | |
| Chase Burns | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | Baltimore Orioles | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Brayan Bello | Los Angeles Angels | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Eury Pérez | New York Mets | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Trevor Rogers | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Troy Melton | Minnesota Twins | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 | |
| Jacob Lopez | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.8 | 1 | -3.8 | |
| Jake Irvin | San Diego Padres | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Matthew Boyd | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.1 | 7 | +2.9 | |
| Logan Webb | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.0 | 8 | +4.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Michael McGreevy | 62.4% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Grant Holmes | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Jonah Tong | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Jake Irvin | 61.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Grant Holmes | 61.1% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Robert Gasser | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Chase Burns | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Eury Pérez | 60.4% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Unknown Pitcher | 60.2% | Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 60.1% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Emmet Sheehan | 60.0% | Hit |
| Mickey Gasper | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 59.8% | No Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Matthew Boyd | 59.8% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Eury Pérez | 59.7% | Hit |
| Zach Neto | — | vs Brayan Bello | 59.6% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Coby Mayo — 31.8% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 29.0% HR probability
- Kazuma Okamoto — 27.3% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 7.4, recorded 12
- Emmet Sheehan — proj 6.1, recorded 10
- Joe Ryan — proj 6.0, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Jonah Tong — proj 1.5, recorded 7
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 7.4, recorded 12
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.8% — result: Home Run.
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