MLB Results — July 26, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 26, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Reynaldo López 30.8% No Home Run

#2 Royce Lewis— · vs Jeffrey Springs 28.6% No Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 28.4% No Home Run

#4 Brandon Lowe— · vs Jameson Taillon 27.7% No Home Run

#5 Byron Buxton— · vs Jeffrey Springs 26.7% No Home Run

#6 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Will Warren 26.6% No Home Run

#7 Luke Raley— · vs Jacob deGrom 25.2% No Home Run

#8 Zach Neto— · vs Carson Whisenhunt 25.0% No Home Run

#9 Joc Pederson— · vs Logan Gilbert 24.4% No Home Run

#10 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Ranger Suarez 24.2% No Home Run

#11 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Erick Fedde 24.2% No Home Run

#12 Salvador Perez— · vs Framber Valdez 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Francisco Lindor— · vs Emmet Sheehan 24.1% No Home Run

#14 Jordan Walker— · vs Andrew Abbott 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Mickey Moniak— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Colorado Rockies 8.1 12 +3.9

Logan Gilbertvs Texas Rangers 7.1 4 -3.1

Jacob deGromvs Seattle Mariners 6.8 4 -2.8

Cristopher Sánchezvs New York Yankees 6.1 6 -0.1On target

Braxton Ashcraftvs Chicago Cubs 5.7 5 -0.7On target

Ronel Blancovs Chicago White Sox 5.6 4 -1.6

Ranger Suarezvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Emmet Sheehanvs New York Mets 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Drew Rasmussenvs Cleveland Guardians 5.2 9 +3.8

Kevin Gausmanvs Boston Red Sox 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Parker Messickvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.1 6 +0.9On target

José Sorianovs San Francisco Giants 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Connor Prielippvs Athletics 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Will Warrenvs Philadelphia Phillies 4.6 5 +0.4On target

Shane Bazvs Atlanta Braves 4.5 2 -2.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Freddy Peralta 64.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Erick Fedde 64.5% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Janson Junk 63.2% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs José Soriano 62.0% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Kohl Drake 61.8% Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Jeffrey Springs 61.7% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Kyle Leahy 61.7% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Freddy Peralta 61.5% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Walker Buehler 61.4% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Will Warren 61.3% Hit

Zach Neto— · vs Carson Whisenhunt 61.3% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Connor Prielipp 61.2% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Emmet Sheehan 61.1% No Hit

Andrew VaughnMilwaukee Brewers · vs Kyle Freeland 60.9% Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Andrew Abbott 60.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Marcus Semien — 23.8% HR probability
Pete Alonso — 23.8% HR probability
James Wood — 23.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.1, recorded 12
Ranger Suarez — proj 5.3, recorded 6
Drew Rasmussen — proj 5.2, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Kyle Leahy — proj 4.5, recorded 9
Jeffrey Springs — proj 4.4, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Marcus Semien. Model HR probability 23.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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