MLB Results — July 27, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 27, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Brandon Lowe— · vs Merrill Kelly 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Zack Wheeler 30.3% Home Run

#3 Coby Mayo— · vs Keider Montero 29.8% Home Run

#4 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Phillips 28.1% No Home Run

#5 Zach Neto— · vs Tatsuya Imai 25.0% No Home Run

#6 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Walbert Ureña 24.2% No Home Run

#7 Kyle Manzardo— · vs Chase Burns 24.1% Home Run

#8 Joc Pederson— · vs George Kirby 24.1% Home Run

#9 Luke Raley— · vs Kumar Rocker 24.1% No Home Run

#10 Colby Thomas— · vs Payton Tolle 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Eddy Yean 24.1% No Home Run

#12 Esmerlyn Valdez— · vs Merrill Kelly 24.0% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Stowers— · vs Zack Wheeler 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Andrew Alvarez 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Colson Montgomery— · vs Max Fried 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Kyle Bradishvs Detroit Tigers 7.2 4 -3.2

Zack Wheelervs Miami Marlins 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Max Friedvs Chicago White Sox 5.7 4 -1.7

Chase Burnsvs Cleveland Guardians 5.7 4 -1.7

Jack Perkinsvs Boston Red Sox 5.4 4 -1.4

Payton Tollevs Athletics 5.4 7 +1.6

George Kirbyvs Texas Rangers 5.2 3 -2.2

Andrew Alvarezvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.1 3 -2.1

Brandon Sproatvs San Francisco Giants 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Kumar Rockervs Seattle Mariners 5.1 7 +1.9

Keider Monterovs Baltimore Orioles 5.0 1 -4.0

Matthew Liberatorevs Chicago Cubs 4.8 5 +0.2On target

Walbert Ureñavs Houston Astros 4.8 5 +0.2On target

Tatsuya Imaivs Los Angeles Angels 4.7 1 -3.7

Zac Thorntonvs Atlanta Braves 4.6 5 +0.4On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

CJ Abrams— · vs Max Scherzer 63.4% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Walbert Ureña 63.2% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Brandon Sproat 61.9% No Hit

Paul Goldschmidt— · vs Noah Schultz 61.7% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Matthew Liberatore 61.7% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Slade Cecconi 61.7% Hit

James Wood— · vs Max Scherzer 61.6% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Tyler Phillips 61.6% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Tyler Phillips 61.5% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tyler Phillips 61.3% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Payton Tolle 61.2% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Noah Schultz 61.2% Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs David Peterson 61.0% Hit

Jeremy Peña— · vs Walbert Ureña 61.0% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Merrill Kelly 60.8% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Heriberto Hernández — 30.3% HR probability
Coby Mayo — 29.8% HR probability
Joc Pederson — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Zack Wheeler — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Payton Tolle — proj 5.4, recorded 7
Kumar Rocker — proj 5.1, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Keider Montero — proj 5.0, recorded 1
Tatsuya Imai — proj 4.7, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 30.3% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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