MLB Results

MLB Model Results — July 4, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 4, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

17
Games covered
441
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
July 4, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Robbie Ray31.9%No Home Run
#2Willy AdamesSan Francisco Giantsvs Tomoyuki Sugano31.0%No Home Run
#3Kazuma Okamoto—vs Logan Gilbert30.9%No Home Run
#4Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Zack Littell30.8%No Home Run
#5Willy AdamesSan Francisco Giantsvs Sean Sullivan30.7%No Home Run
#6Mickey MoniakColorado Rockiesvs Robbie Ray30.1%No Home Run
#7Heliot Ramos—vs Sean Sullivan28.2%No Home Run
#8Owen CaissieMiami Marlinsvs Aaron Civale26.6%No Home Run
#9Casey SchmittSan Francisco Giantsvs Sean Sullivan25.3%No Home Run
#10Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Michael Wacha25.2%No Home Run
#11Heriberto Hernández—vs Aaron Civale24.4%No Home Run
#12Carter Jensen—vs Jesús Luzardo24.2%No Home Run
#13Jac CaglianoneKansas City Royalsvs Jesús Luzardo24.1%No Home Run
#14Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Drew Rasmussen24.1%Home Run
#15Kyle Manzardo—vs Sean Burke24.1%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Chris SaleNew York Mets7.23-4.2
Jesús LuzardoKansas City Royals6.59+2.5
Braxton AshcraftWashington Nationals6.37+0.7On Target
Drew RasmussenHouston Astros5.72-3.7
Brandon WoodruffArizona Diamondbacks5.66+0.4On Target
Logan GilbertToronto Blue Jays5.67+1.4
Hunter GreeneBaltimore Orioles5.67+1.4
Sean BurkeCleveland Guardians5.511+5.5
Hunter BrownTampa Bay Rays5.43-2.4
Yoshinobu YamamotoSan Diego Padres5.410+4.6
Sonny GrayLos Angeles Angels5.27+1.8
Parker MessickChicago White Sox5.23-2.2
Jack FlahertyTexas Rangers5.15-0.1On Target
Sean ManaeaAtlanta Braves5.04-1.0On Target
Shota ImanagaSt. Louis Cardinals5.08+3.0
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Michael Wacha64.4%Hit
Rafael DeversSan Francisco Giantsvs Sean Sullivan63.6%Hit
Kyle StowersMiami Marlinsvs Aaron Civale63.1%Hit
Brandon MarshPhiladelphia Philliesvs Michael Wacha63.1%No Hit
Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Brendan Beck62.8%Hit
Heliot Ramos—vs Sean Sullivan62.6%Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Yoshinobu Yamamoto62.5%Hit
Luis ArraezSan Francisco Giantsvs Sean Sullivan62.3%Hit
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Drew Rasmussen62.3%Hit
Nick Kurtz—vs Sandy Alcantara62.0%No Hit
Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Michael Wacha61.8%Hit
Rafael DeversSan Francisco Giantsvs Tomoyuki Sugano61.7%Hit
Casey SchmittSan Francisco Giantsvs Sean Sullivan61.6%Hit
Trevor Larnach—vs Brendan Beck61.4%Hit
Bryan ReynoldsPittsburgh Piratesvs Zack Littell61.3%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.
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