Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 4, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
441
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
July 4, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Robbie Ray | 31.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Willy Adames | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 30.9% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Zack Littell | 30.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Willy Adames | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 30.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Robbie Ray | 30.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Heliot Ramos | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 28.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Aaron Civale | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Casey Schmitt | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Michael Wacha | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Aaron Civale | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Jesús Luzardo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Jesús Luzardo | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Drew Rasmussen | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #15 | Kyle Manzardo | — | vs Sean Burke | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | New York Mets | 7.2 | 3 | -4.2 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Kansas City Royals | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Washington Nationals | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Drew Rasmussen | Houston Astros | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Brandon Woodruff | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Logan Gilbert | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Hunter Greene | Baltimore Orioles | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Sean Burke | Cleveland Guardians | 5.5 | 11 | +5.5 | |
| Hunter Brown | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | San Diego Padres | 5.4 | 10 | +4.6 | |
| Sonny Gray | Los Angeles Angels | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Parker Messick | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Jack Flaherty | Texas Rangers | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Sean Manaea | Atlanta Braves | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Shota Imanaga | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Michael Wacha | 64.4% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 63.6% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Michael Wacha | 63.1% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Aaron Civale | 63.1% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Brendan Beck | 62.8% | Hit |
| Heliot Ramos | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 62.6% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 62.5% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Drew Rasmussen | 62.3% | Hit |
| Luis Arraez | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 62.3% | Hit |
| Nick Kurtz | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Michael Wacha | 61.8% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.7% | Hit |
| Casey Schmitt | — | vs Sean Sullivan | 61.6% | Hit |
| Trevor Larnach | — | vs Brendan Beck | 61.4% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | — | vs Zack Littell | 61.3% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Yordan Alvarez — 24.1% HR probability
- Colson Montgomery — 23.9% HR probability
- Austin Riley — 23.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.5, recorded 9
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 6.3, recorded 7
- Logan Gilbert — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Sean Burke — proj 5.5, recorded 11
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 5.4, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.
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