MLB Results — July 3, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 3, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

349

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 3, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Logan Webb	31.4%	No Home Run
#2	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Unknown Pitcher	31.3%	No Home Run
#3	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Foster Griffin	30.6%	No Home Run
#4	Zach Neto	—	vs Jake Bennett	30.4%	No Home Run
#5	Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies	vs Unknown Pitcher	25.3%	No Home Run
#6	Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies	vs Logan Webb	25.2%	No Home Run
#7	Willy Adames	San Francisco Giants	vs Ryan Feltner	25.2%	No Home Run
#8	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Michael King	25.0%	No Home Run
#9	Casey Schmitt	San Francisco Giants	vs Ryan Feltner	25.0%	No Home Run
#10	Kazuma Okamoto	Toronto Blue Jays	vs Luis Castillo	24.2%	No Home Run
#11	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Trevor Rogers	24.2%	No Home Run
#12	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Nick Martinez	24.1%	Home Run
#13	Owen Caissie	Miami Marlins	vs Jack Perkins	24.1%	No Home Run
#14	Ketel Marte	—	vs Kyle Harrison	23.9%	No Home Run
#15	Michael Conforto	—	vs Andre Pallante	23.9%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Dylan Cease	Seattle Mariners	8.0	9	+1.0
Shohei Ohtani	San Diego Padres	7.0	9	+2.0
Reid Detmers	Boston Red Sox	6.7	5	-1.7
Foster Griffin	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.7	2	-3.7
Christian Scott	Atlanta Braves	5.3	7	+1.7
Kyle Harrison	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.2	3	-2.2
Gavin Williams	Chicago White Sox	5.2	6	+0.8	On Target
Spencer Arrighetti	Tampa Bay Rays	5.0	4	-1.0
Jake Bennett	Los Angeles Angels	4.6	6	+1.4
Gerrit Cole	Minnesota Twins	4.5	7	+2.5
Luis Castillo	Toronto Blue Jays	4.5	4	-0.5	On Target
Logan Webb	Colorado Rockies	4.1	2	-2.1
Michael King	Los Angeles Dodgers	3.9	5	+1.1
Nick Martinez	Houston Astros	3.9	3	-0.9	On Target
Trevor Rogers	Cincinnati Reds	3.9	4	+0.1	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Michael King	63.8%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Ryan Feltner	63.2%	Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Nick Martinez	63.1%	Hit
Juan Soto	New York Mets	vs Grant Holmes	62.2%	Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Mike Paredes	62.1%	Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Trevor Rogers	62.1%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Shohei Ohtani	62.0%	No Hit
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	—	vs Tyler Phillips	62.0%	Hit
Luis Arraez	San Francisco Giants	vs Ryan Feltner	61.8%	Hit
Nick Kurtz	Athletics	vs Tyler Phillips	61.8%	Hit
Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Brady Singer	61.5%	No Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Spencer Arrighetti	61.5%	Hit
Edouard Julien	Colorado Rockies	vs Logan Webb	61.1%	No Hit
Brett Baty	New York Mets	vs Grant Holmes	61.1%	Hit
Iván Herrera	St. Louis Cardinals	vs David Peterson	61.0%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.

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