Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 3, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
349
Hitters evaluated
27
Pitchers evaluated
July 3, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Logan Webb | 31.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 31.3% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Foster Griffin | 30.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Zach Neto | — | vs Jake Bennett | 30.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Logan Webb | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Willy Adames | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Michael King | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Casey Schmitt | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Luis Castillo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Jack Perkins | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #13 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Nick Martinez | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #14 | Gunnar Henderson | — | vs Brady Singer | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Dylan Cease | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Seattle Mariners | 8.0 | 9 | +1.0 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | San Diego Padres | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 | |
| Reid Detmers | Boston Red Sox | 6.7 | 5 | -1.7 | |
| Foster Griffin | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Christian Scott | Atlanta Braves | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Gavin Williams | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| Jake Bennett | Los Angeles Angels | 4.6 | 6 | +1.4 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Minnesota Twins | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 | |
| Luis Castillo | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Logan Webb | Colorado Rockies | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 | |
| Michael King | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.9 | 5 | +1.1 | |
| Nick Martinez | Houston Astros | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Trevor Rogers | Cincinnati Reds | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Michael King | 63.8% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 63.2% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Nick Martinez | 63.1% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Grant Holmes | 62.2% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Mike Paredes | 62.1% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 62.1% | Hit |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | — | vs Tyler Phillips | 62.0% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Nick Kurtz | — | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.8% | Hit |
| Luis Arraez | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 61.8% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Spencer Arrighetti | 61.5% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | — | vs Brady Singer | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Edouard Julien | — | vs Logan Webb | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Grant Holmes | 61.1% | Hit |
| Iván Herrera | — | vs David Peterson | 61.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Owen Caissie — 24.1% HR probability
- Yordan Alvarez — 24.1% HR probability
- Heriberto Hernández — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 8.0, recorded 9
- Shohei Ohtani — proj 7.0, recorded 9
- Christian Scott — proj 5.3, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Ryan Feltner — proj 3.6, recorded 9
- Jack Perkins — proj 3.5, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Owen Caissie. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.
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