MLB Results — April 4, 2026

MLB Model Results — April 4, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Brennan Bernardino 13.6% No Home Run

#2 Aaron Judge— · vs Max Meyer 13.1% No Home Run

#3 Pete Alonso— · vs Carmen Mlodzinski 13.0% No Home Run

#4 Gary SánchezMilwaukee Brewers · vs Luinder Avila 11.8% No Home Run

#5 Brandon Lowe— · vs Shane Baz 10.6% No Home Run

#6 Shea Langeliers— · vs Tatsuya Imai 10.0% No Home Run

#7 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Luis Morales 9.9% No Home Run

#8 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jake Irvin 9.7% No Home Run

#9 Bryce Harper— · vs Brennan Bernardino 9.5% No Home Run

#10 Freddie Freeman— · vs Jake Irvin 9.1% No Home Run

#11 Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Tatsuya Imai 8.8% No Home Run

#12 Oneil Cruz— · vs Shane Baz 8.7% No Home Run

#13 Taylor Ward— · vs Carmen Mlodzinski 8.6% No Home Run

#14 Giancarlo Stanton— · vs Max Meyer 8.5% No Home Run

#15 Christian Walker— · vs Luis Morales 7.8% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tyler Glasnowvs Washington Nationals 6.7 9 +2.3

Jesús Luzardovs Colorado Rockies 6.5 11 +4.5

Emerson Hancockvs Los Angeles Angels 6.5 5 -1.5

Connelly Earlyvs San Diego Padres 6.3 4 -2.3

Michael Sorokavs Atlanta Braves 5.7 3 -2.7

Landen Rouppvs New York Mets 5.5 7 +1.5

Tatsuya Imaivs Athletics 5.3 9 +3.7

Shane Bazvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Carmen Mlodzinskivs Baltimore Orioles 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Shota Imanagavs Cleveland Guardians 5.0 4 -1.0

Rhett Lowdervs Texas Rangers 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Max Meyervs New York Yankees 4.8 6 +1.2

Jack Flahertyvs St. Louis Cardinals 4.7 6 +1.3

Chad Patrickvs Kansas City Royals 4.6 3 -1.6

Ryan Weathersvs Miami Marlins 4.6 4 -0.6On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Brandon Lowe— · vs Shane Baz 63.9% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Tyler Glasnow 63.4% Hit

Ryan O'Hearn— · vs Shane Baz 63.4% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Mick Abel 63.4% Hit

Sal Stewart— · vs Kumar Rocker 63.1% Hit

Brandon Nimmo— · vs Rhett Lowder 62.7% No Hit

Jose Altuve— · vs Luis Morales 62.6% Hit

Kyle Tucker— · vs Jake Irvin 62.6% Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Carmen Mlodzinski 62.5% Hit

Luis García Jr.— · vs Tyler Glasnow 62.4% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Jack Kochanowicz 62.2% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Max Meyer 62.2% No Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Brennan Bernardino 62.2% Hit

Adolis García— · vs Brennan Bernardino 62.2% No Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jake Irvin 62.1% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Christian Walker — 7.8% HR probability
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 6.6% HR probability
Munetaka Murakami — 6.0% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tyler Glasnow — proj 6.7, recorded 9
Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.5, recorded 11
Landen Roupp — proj 5.5, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.5, recorded 11
Steven Matz — proj 3.6, recorded 8

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Christian Walker. Model HR probability 7.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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