Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 4, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
420
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
April 4, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brennan Bernardino | 13.6% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Max Meyer | 13.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 13.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Gary Sánchez | — | vs Luinder Avila | 11.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Shane Baz | 10.6% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Tatsuya Imai | 10.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Luis Morales | 9.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Jake Irvin | 9.7% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brennan Bernardino | 9.5% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Freddie Freeman | — | vs Jake Irvin | 9.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Tatsuya Imai | 8.8% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Shane Baz | 8.7% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Taylor Ward | — | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 8.6% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Max Meyer | 8.5% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Luis Morales | 7.8% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | Washington Nationals | 6.7 | 9 | +2.3 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Colorado Rockies | 6.5 | 11 | +4.5 | |
| Emerson Hancock | Los Angeles Angels | 6.5 | 5 | -1.5 | |
| Connelly Early | San Diego Padres | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 | |
| Michael Soroka | Atlanta Braves | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| Landen Roupp | New York Mets | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Tatsuya Imai | Athletics | 5.3 | 9 | +3.7 | |
| Shane Baz | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | Baltimore Orioles | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Shota Imanaga | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| Rhett Lowder | Texas Rangers | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Max Meyer | New York Yankees | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| Jack Flaherty | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.7 | 6 | +1.3 | |
| Chad Patrick | Kansas City Royals | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Miami Marlins | 4.6 | 4 | -0.6 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Shane Baz | 63.9% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Tyler Glasnow | 63.4% | Hit |
| Ryan O'Hearn | — | vs Shane Baz | 63.4% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Mick Abel | 63.4% | Hit |
| Sal Stewart | — | vs Kumar Rocker | 63.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Nimmo | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 62.7% | No Hit |
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Luis Morales | 62.6% | Hit |
| Kyle Tucker | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Jake Irvin | 62.6% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 62.5% | Hit |
| Luis García Jr. | — | vs Tyler Glasnow | 62.4% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs Jack Kochanowicz | 62.2% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Max Meyer | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Brennan Bernardino | 62.2% | Hit |
| Adolis García | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brennan Bernardino | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Jake Irvin | 62.1% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Christian Walker — 7.8% HR probability
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 6.6% HR probability
- Munetaka Murakami — 6.0% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tyler Glasnow — proj 6.7, recorded 9
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.5, recorded 11
- Landen Roupp — proj 5.5, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 6.5, recorded 11
- Steven Matz — proj 3.6, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Christian Walker. Model HR probability 7.8% — result: Home Run.
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