Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 3, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
380
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
April 3, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Kyle Bradish | 13.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Cristian Javier | 13.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Chase DeLauter | — | vs Cade Horton | 13.1% | Home Run |
| #4 | Brice Turang | — | vs Luinder Avila | 12.7% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Gary Sánchez | — | vs Luinder Avila | 12.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Josh Bell | — | vs Joe Boyle | 12.6% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Ben Rice | — | vs Eury Pérez | 12.4% | Home Run |
| #8 | Liam Hicks | — | vs Will Warren | 12.0% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Konnor Griffin | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 11.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Dillon Dingler | — | vs Michael McGreevy | 11.7% | Home Run |
| #11 | Christian Vázquez | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 11.6% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Michael King | 11.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | vs Joey Cantillo | 11.4% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jake Bauers | — | vs Luinder Avila | 11.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Michael Lorenzen | 11.3% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | Los Angeles Angels | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Dylan Cease | Chicago White Sox | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Cincinnati Reds | 5.4 | 9 | +3.6 | |
| Aaron Nola | Colorado Rockies | 5.2 | 9 | +3.8 | |
| Kyle Bradish | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Nolan McLean | San Francisco Giants | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| Joe Boyle | Minnesota Twins | 4.9 | 9 | +4.1 | |
| Eury Pérez | New York Yankees | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Michael King | Boston Red Sox | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Framber Valdez | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Sonny Gray | San Diego Padres | 4.2 | 3 | -1.2 | |
| Cristian Javier | Athletics | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 | |
| Mitch Keller | Baltimore Orioles | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Emmet Sheehan | Washington Nationals | 4.0 | 2 | -2.0 | |
| Joey Cantillo | Chicago Cubs | 4.0 | 6 | +2.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Moore | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 68.8% | No Hit |
| TJ Friedl | — | vs MacKenzie Gore | 68.8% | No Hit |
| Otto Kemp | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 68.0% | No Hit |
| Jonny DeLuca | — | vs Bailey Ober | 67.2% | No Hit |
| Leody Taveras | — | vs Mitch Keller | 67.2% | No Hit |
| Coby Mayo | — | vs Mitch Keller | 66.8% | No Hit |
| Ryan Vilade | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Bailey Ober | 66.5% | No Hit |
| Jake Mangum | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 66.3% | No Hit |
| Austin Martin | Minnesota Twins | vs Joe Boyle | 65.4% | No Hit |
| James Outman | — | vs Joe Boyle | 64.7% | No Hit |
| Ryan O'Hearn | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 58.4% | No Hit |
| Brice Turang | — | vs Luinder Avila | 58.4% | Hit |
| Konnor Griffin | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 58.2% | Hit |
| Drake Baldwin | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 57.9% | Hit |
| Brendan Donovan | — | vs Reid Detmers | 57.8% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Chase DeLauter — 13.1% HR probability
- Ben Rice — 12.4% HR probability
- Dillon Dingler — 11.7% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 5.7, recorded 6
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 5.4, recorded 9
- Aaron Nola — proj 5.2, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Joe Boyle — proj 4.9, recorded 9
- Aaron Nola — proj 5.2, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Chase DeLauter. Model HR probability 13.1% — result: Home Run.
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