Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 5, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
438
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
April 5, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 13.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Pete Fairbanks | 13.5% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Chris Paddack | 12.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 12.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 11.5% | Home Run |
| #6 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Lance McCullers Jr. | 11.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Lance McCullers Jr. | 9.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 9.6% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Pete Fairbanks | 8.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Chris Paddack | 8.3% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Chris Bassitt | 8.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Zach Neto | — | vs Luis Castillo | 7.8% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Chris Bassitt | 7.8% | Home Run |
| #14 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Foster Griffin | 7.7% | Home Run |
| #15 | Ramón Laureano | — | vs Ranger Suarez | 7.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | Texas Rangers | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 | |
| Jack Leiter | Cincinnati Reds | 6.2 | 9 | +2.8 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Baltimore Orioles | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 | |
| Kris Bubic | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Kodai Senga | San Francisco Giants | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Edward Cabrera | Cleveland Guardians | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Athletics | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Kansas City Royals | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Parker Messick | Chicago Cubs | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Luis Castillo | Los Angeles Angels | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| Logan Webb | New York Mets | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Cleveland Guardians | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Slade Cecconi | Chicago Cubs | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| Max Fried | Miami Marlins | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 64.4% | Hit |
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 64.0% | Hit |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Jacob Lopez | 63.3% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs George Klassen | 63.1% | Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 62.8% | Hit |
| Zach Neto | — | vs Luis Castillo | 62.7% | Hit |
| Adolis García | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 62.6% | Hit |
| Taylor Ward | — | vs Braxton Ashcraft | 62.3% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 62.3% | Hit |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Lance McCullers Jr. | 62.1% | Hit |
| Carlos Correa | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 62.1% | Hit |
| Giancarlo Stanton | — | vs Pete Fairbanks | 62.1% | Hit |
| Xavier Edwards | — | vs Max Fried | 61.9% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Keider Montero | 61.8% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.8% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Yordan Alvarez — 11.5% HR probability
- Oneil Cruz — 7.8% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 7.7% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chase Burns — proj 7.3, recorded 9
- Jack Leiter — proj 6.2, recorded 9
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 6.1, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Eric Lauer — proj 4.6, recorded 0
- Chris Bassitt — proj 3.0, recorded 0
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 11.5% — result: Home Run.
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