MLB Results — April 5, 2026

MLB Model Results — April 5, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 13.9% No Home Run

#2 Aaron Judge— · vs Pete Fairbanks 13.5% No Home Run

#3 Aaron Judge— · vs Chris Paddack 12.7% No Home Run

#4 Pete Alonso— · vs Braxton Ashcraft 12.2% No Home Run

#5 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jacob Lopez 11.5% Home Run

#6 Shea Langeliers— · vs Lance McCullers Jr. 11.0% No Home Run

#7 Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Lance McCullers Jr. 9.9% No Home Run

#8 Bryce Harper— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 9.6% No Home Run

#9 Giancarlo Stanton— · vs Pete Fairbanks 8.4% No Home Run

#10 Giancarlo Stanton— · vs Chris Paddack 8.3% No Home Run

#11 Brandon Lowe— · vs Chris Bassitt 8.0% No Home Run

#12 Zach Neto— · vs Luis Castillo 7.8% No Home Run

#13 Oneil Cruz— · vs Chris Bassitt 7.8% Home Run

#14 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Foster Griffin 7.7% Home Run

#15 Ramón Laureano— · vs Ranger Suarez 7.6% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chase Burnsvs Texas Rangers 7.3 9 +1.7

Jack Leitervs Cincinnati Reds 6.2 9 +2.8

Braxton Ashcraftvs Baltimore Orioles 6.1 8 +1.9

Kris Bubicvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.7 8 +2.3

Kodai Sengavs San Francisco Giants 5.7 7 +1.3

Edward Cabreravs Cleveland Guardians 5.6 4 -1.6

Lance McCullers Jr.vs Athletics 5.6 4 -1.6

Kyle Harrisonvs Kansas City Royals 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Foster Griffinvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Parker Messickvs Chicago Cubs 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Luis Castillovs Los Angeles Angels 5.0 4 -1.0

Logan Webbvs New York Mets 5.0 3 -2.0

Shota Imanagavs Cleveland Guardians 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Slade Cecconivs Chicago Cubs 4.8 6 +1.2

Max Friedvs Miami Marlins 4.7 4 -0.7On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Jacob Lopez 64.4% Hit

Jose Altuve— · vs Jacob Lopez 64.0% Hit

Christian Walker— · vs Jacob Lopez 63.3% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs George Klassen 63.1% Hit

Trea Turner— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 62.8% Hit

Zach Neto— · vs Luis Castillo 62.7% Hit

Adolis García— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 62.6% Hit

Taylor Ward— · vs Braxton Ashcraft 62.3% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 62.3% Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Lance McCullers Jr. 62.1% Hit

Carlos Correa— · vs Jacob Lopez 62.1% Hit

Giancarlo Stanton— · vs Pete Fairbanks 62.1% Hit

Xavier Edwards— · vs Max Fried 61.9% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Keider Montero 61.8% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 61.8% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Yordan Alvarez — 11.5% HR probability
Oneil Cruz — 7.8% HR probability
Shohei Ohtani — 7.7% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chase Burns — proj 7.3, recorded 9
Jack Leiter — proj 6.2, recorded 9
Braxton Ashcraft — proj 6.1, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Eric Lauer — proj 4.6, recorded 0
Chris Bassitt — proj 3.0, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 11.5% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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