Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — March 27, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
8
Games covered
196
Hitters evaluated
16
Pitchers evaluated
March 27, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Gavin Williams | 24.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | — | vs Robbie Ray | 16.9% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees | vs Robbie Ray | 15.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Jung Hoo Lee | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 15.6% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Riley Greene | — | vs Michael King | 15.5% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 15.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Kevin Gausman | 15.0% | Home Run |
| #8 | Spencer Torkelson | — | vs Michael King | 14.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Zach McKinstry | — | vs Michael King | 13.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Jose Altuve | — | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 13.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Willy Adames | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 13.5% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Corbin Carroll | — | vs Emmet Sheehan | 13.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Carlos Correa | — | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 13.4% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Matt Chapman | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 13.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Jo Adell | — | vs Mike Burrows | 13.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman | Athletics | 6.3 | 11 | +4.7 | |
| Framber Valdez | San Diego Padres | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 | |
| Robbie Ray | New York Yankees | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 | |
| Gavin Williams | Seattle Mariners | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Chris Sale | Kansas City Royals | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Mike Burrows | Los Angeles Angels | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Michael King | Detroit Tigers | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| George Kirby | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Emmet Sheehan | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Cam Schlittler | San Francisco Giants | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 | |
| Cole Ragans | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Ryne Nelson | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Houston Astros | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Colorado Rockies | 4.7 | 5 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Luis Severino | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Ryne Nelson | 59.0% | No Hit |
| Jung Hoo Lee | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 58.8% | No Hit |
| Cal Raleigh | — | vs Gavin Williams | 57.7% | No Hit |
| Aaron Judge | — | vs Robbie Ray | 57.5% | Hit |
| George Springer | — | vs Luis Severino | 56.4% | No Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Gavin Williams | 54.7% | No Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Emmet Sheehan | 54.5% | Hit |
| Carlos Correa | — | vs Yusei Kikuchi | 54.1% | Hit |
| Geraldo Perdomo | — | vs Emmet Sheehan | 53.9% | Hit |
| Maikel Garcia | — | vs Chris Sale | 53.4% | Hit |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Luis Severino | 52.7% | Hit |
| Jacob Wilson | — | vs Kevin Gausman | 52.7% | No Hit |
| Ernie Clement | — | vs Luis Severino | 52.4% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 51.9% | No Hit |
| Brendan Donovan | — | vs Gavin Williams | 51.8% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Shea Langeliers — 15.0% HR probability
- Mike Trout — 11.8% HR probability
- Zach Neto — 10.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Kevin Gausman — proj 6.3, recorded 11
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.5, recorded 7
- Chris Sale — proj 5.4, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Kevin Gausman — proj 6.3, recorded 11
- Cam Schlittler — proj 5.2, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Shea Langeliers. Model HR probability 15.0% — result: Home Run.
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