Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — March 28, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
419
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
March 28, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jacob Latz | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jacob deGrom | 27.9% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 24.8% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | — | vs Tyler Mahle | 16.9% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Taylor Ward | — | vs Taj Bradley | 16.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees | vs Tyler Mahle | 15.7% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Jung Hoo Lee | — | vs Will Warren | 15.6% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Riley Greene | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 15.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Eury Pérez | 15.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Dylan Cease | 15.0% | Home Run |
| #11 | Mike Yastrzemski | — | vs Michael Wacha | 14.8% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Michael McGreevy | 14.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 14.4% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Spencer Torkelson | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 14.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Zach McKinstry | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 13.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | Cleveland Guardians | 7.0 | 9 | +2.0 | |
| Dylan Cease | Athletics | 6.7 | 12 | +5.3 | |
| Sonny Gray | Cincinnati Reds | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Michael McGreevy | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Randy Vásquez | Detroit Tigers | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Eury Pérez | Colorado Rockies | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Reynaldo López | Kansas City Royals | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| Tyler Mahle | New York Yankees | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Aaron Nola | Texas Rangers | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Chad Patrick | Chicago White Sox | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Tyler Glasnow | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Kyle Bradish | Minnesota Twins | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Cade Horton | Washington Nationals | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Cristian Javier | Los Angeles Angels | 5.4 | 1 | -4.4 | |
| Jack Flaherty | San Diego Padres | 5.2 | 2 | -3.2 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jacob Latz | 59.5% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jacob deGrom | 59.5% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 59.0% | No Hit |
| Jung Hoo Lee | — | vs Will Warren | 58.8% | Hit |
| Cal Raleigh | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 57.7% | Hit |
| Aaron Judge | — | vs Tyler Mahle | 57.5% | Hit |
| George Springer | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 56.4% | Hit |
| Brice Turang | — | vs Sean Burke | 55.4% | Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 54.7% | No Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Jacob Latz | 54.5% | No Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Tyler Glasnow | 54.5% | Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 54.5% | No Hit |
| Bo Bichette | — | vs Mitch Keller | 54.3% | Hit |
| Carlos Correa | — | vs Reid Detmers | 54.1% | Hit |
| Geraldo Perdomo | — | vs Tyler Glasnow | 53.9% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Shea Langeliers — 15.0% HR probability
- Ian Happ — 12.5% HR probability
- Elly De La Cruz — 12.4% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Bryan Woo — proj 7.0, recorded 9
- Dylan Cease — proj 6.7, recorded 12
- Randy Vásquez — proj 5.4, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Dylan Cease — proj 6.7, recorded 12
- Cristian Javier — proj 5.4, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Shea Langeliers. Model HR probability 15.0% — result: Home Run.
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