Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — March 26, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
11
Games covered
225
Hitters evaluated
22
Pitchers evaluated
March 26, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 27.9% | Home Run |
| #2 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 24.8% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Taylor Ward | — | vs Joe Ryan | 16.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Riley Greene | — | vs Nick Pivetta | 15.5% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Spencer Torkelson | — | vs Nick Pivetta | 14.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Matthew Liberatore | 14.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Cade Cavalli | 14.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Jose Altuve | — | vs José Soriano | 13.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Trevor Rogers | 13.6% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Corbin Carroll | — | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 13.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Carlos Correa | — | vs José Soriano | 13.4% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jo Adell | — | vs Hunter Brown | 13.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Zac Gallen | 13.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jorge Polanco | — | vs Paul Skenes | 13.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Matthew Boyd | 13.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | San Diego Padres | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 | |
| Garrett Crochet | Cincinnati Reds | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | New York Mets | 7.0 | 1 | -6.0 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Arizona Diamondbacks | 6.9 | 6 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Los Angeles Angels | 6.8 | 9 | +2.2 | |
| Joe Ryan | Baltimore Orioles | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Nick Pivetta | Detroit Tigers | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.2 | 7 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Andrew Abbott | Boston Red Sox | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Texas Rangers | 5.4 | 10 | +4.6 | |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Chicago White Sox | 5.4 | 11 | +5.6 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Trevor Rogers | Minnesota Twins | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Matthew Liberatore | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| Matthew Boyd | Washington Nationals | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 50.8% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Zac Gallen | 50.3% | Hit |
| Cal Raleigh | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 49.2% | No Hit |
| Brice Turang | — | vs Shane Smith | 47.3% | Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Tanner Bibee | 46.7% | No Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 46.5% | No Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 46.5% | Hit |
| Bo Bichette | — | vs Paul Skenes | 46.3% | No Hit |
| Carlos Correa | — | vs José Soriano | 46.2% | No Hit |
| Geraldo Perdomo | — | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 46.0% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Paul Skenes | 45.7% | Hit |
| Nico Hoerner | — | vs Cade Cavalli | 45.6% | No Hit |
| Alec Bohm | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 44.9% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Drew Rasmussen | 44.3% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Zac Gallen | 44.3% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kyle Schwarber — 27.9% HR probability
- Brandon Lowe — 12.9% HR probability
- Andy Pages — 12.4% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Garrett Crochet — proj 7.9, recorded 8
- Hunter Brown — proj 6.8, recorded 9
- Joe Ryan — proj 6.4, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Paul Skenes — proj 7.0, recorded 1
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 5.4, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 27.9% — result: Home Run.
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