Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 14, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
10
Games covered
281
Hitters evaluated
20
Pitchers evaluated
September 14, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jonah Tong | 31.2% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Casey Mize | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 27.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Troy Melton | 26.6% | Home Run |
| #5 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Corbin Burnes | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Landen Roupp | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Reid Detmers | 25.0% | Home Run |
| #8 | Jo Adell | — | vs Sean Newcomb | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Brandon Young | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Reynaldo López | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Reynaldo López | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #12 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Corbin Burnes | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Matt Olson | — | vs David Peterson | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Kody Clemens | — | vs Will Warren | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | José Ramírez | — | vs Sean Newcomb | 22.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Cincinnati Reds | 8.0 | 9 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Chicago White Sox | 6.5 | 7 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Reid Detmers | Seattle Mariners | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Dean Kremer | New York Yankees | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| José Soriano | Detroit Tigers | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Jonah Tong | Baltimore Orioles | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Will Warren | Minnesota Twins | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Kade Anderson | Los Angeles Angels | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| David Peterson | Atlanta Braves | 4.8 | 7 | +2.2 | |
| Casey Mize | Colorado Rockies | 4.7 | 0 | -4.7 | |
| Quinn Mathews | San Francisco Giants | 4.5 | 8 | +3.5 | |
| Brandon Young | New York Mets | 4.4 | 6 | +1.6 | |
| Landen Roupp | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.4 | 4 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Troy Melton | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.3 | 3 | -1.3 | |
| Nick Lodolo | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 64.1% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Corbin Burnes | 63.6% | Hit |
| Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.4% | Hit |
| Aaron Judge | New York Yankees | vs Dean Kremer | 61.1% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Brandon Young | 60.9% | No Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Casey Mize | 60.8% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Reynaldo López | 60.7% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Brandon Young | 60.7% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Tarik Skubal | 60.7% | Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Corbin Burnes | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Teoscar Hernández | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 60.5% | Hit |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 60.5% | Hit |
| Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs Kade Anderson | 60.5% | Hit |
| Manny Machado | San Diego Padres | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 60.4% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Reid Detmers | 60.2% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kazuma Okamoto — 26.6% HR probability
- Cal Raleigh — 25.0% HR probability
- Pete Crow-Armstrong — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tarik Skubal — proj 8.0, recorded 9
- Gavin Williams — proj 6.5, recorded 7
- Reid Detmers — proj 5.4, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Casey Mize — proj 4.7, recorded 0
- Quinn Mathews — proj 4.5, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kazuma Okamoto. Model HR probability 26.6% — result: Home Run.
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