MLB Results — September 14, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 14, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Jonah Tong 31.2% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Casey Mize 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Jackson Merrill— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 27.7% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Troy Melton 26.6% Home Run

#5 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Corbin Burnes 26.1% No Home Run

#6 Nolan Gorman— · vs Landen Roupp 25.2% No Home Run

#7 Cal Raleigh— · vs Reid Detmers 25.0% Home Run

#8 Jo Adell— · vs Sean Newcomb 24.2% No Home Run

#9 Francisco Lindor— · vs Brandon Young 24.1% No Home Run

#10 Kyle Stowers— · vs Corbin Burnes 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Michael Conforto— · vs Reynaldo López 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Reynaldo López 23.9% Home Run

#13 Matt Olson— · vs David Peterson 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Kody Clemens— · vs Will Warren 23.8% No Home Run

#15 José Ramírez— · vs Sean Newcomb 22.6% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs Cincinnati Reds 8.0 9 +1.0On target

Gavin Williamsvs Chicago White Sox 6.5 7 +0.5On target

Reid Detmersvs Seattle Mariners 5.4 8 +2.6

Dean Kremervs New York Yankees 5.4 5 -0.4On target

José Sorianovs Detroit Tigers 5.4 5 -0.4On target

Jonah Tongvs Baltimore Orioles 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Will Warrenvs Minnesota Twins 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Kade Andersonvs Los Angeles Angels 5.0 5 -0.0On target

David Petersonvs Atlanta Braves 4.8 7 +2.2

Casey Mizevs Colorado Rockies 4.7 0 -4.7

Quinn Mathewsvs San Francisco Giants 4.5 8 +3.5

Brandon Youngvs New York Mets 4.4 6 +1.6

Landen Rouppvs St. Louis Cardinals 4.4 4 -0.4On target

Troy Meltonvs Toronto Blue Jays 4.3 3 -1.3

Nick Lodolovs Los Angeles Dodgers 3.9 4 +0.1On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 64.1% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Corbin Burnes 63.6% Hit

Jackson Merrill— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 61.4% Hit

Aaron Judge— · vs Dean Kremer 61.1% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Brandon Young 60.9% No Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Casey Mize 60.8% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Brandon Young 60.7% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Tarik Skubal 60.7% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Reynaldo López 60.7% Hit

Otto Lopez— · vs Corbin Burnes 60.6% No Hit

Teoscar Hernández— · vs Nick Lodolo 60.5% Hit

Ty France— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 60.5% Hit

Zach Neto— · vs Kade Anderson 60.5% Hit

Manny Machado— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 60.4% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Landen Roupp 60.2% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kazuma Okamoto — 26.6% HR probability
Cal Raleigh — 25.0% HR probability
Pete Crow-Armstrong — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Tarik Skubal — proj 8.0, recorded 9
Gavin Williams — proj 6.5, recorded 7
Reid Detmers — proj 5.4, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Casey Mize — proj 4.7, recorded 0
Quinn Mathews — proj 4.5, recorded 8

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kazuma Okamoto. Model HR probability 26.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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