MLB Model Results — September 13, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Baltimore Orioles | 7.7 | 9 | +1.3 | |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Mets | 7.3 | 8 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Chase Burns | Milwaukee Brewers | 6.4 | 5 | -1.4 | |
| Payton Tolle | Kansas City Royals | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Joe Ryan | Cleveland Guardians | 5.7 | 1 | -4.7 | |
| Christian Scott | New York Yankees | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Emmet Sheehan | Miami Marlins | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Bryce Miller | Athletics | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Nick Pivetta | San Francisco Giants | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Noah Cameron | Boston Red Sox | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| Jacob Lopez | Seattle Mariners | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Jackson Jobe | Colorado Rockies | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 | |
| David Sandlin | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Jake Irvin | Los Angeles Angels | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Matthew Boyd | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 7.7, recorded 9
- Cam Schlittler — proj 7.3, recorded 8
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.9, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Joe Ryan — proj 5.7, recorded 1
- Grant Holmes — proj 3.4, recorded 0
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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