MLB Results — September 13, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 13, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Michael Harris II— · vs Andrew Painter 31.0% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Dylan Cease 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Trevor Rogers 31.0% Home Run

#4 Jac Caglianone— · vs Payton Tolle 30.8% No Home Run

#5 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Emmet Sheehan 30.8% No Home Run

#6 Carter Jensen— · vs Payton Tolle 29.8% No Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Grant Holmes 29.0% No Home Run

#8 Salvador Perez— · vs Payton Tolle 28.0% No Home Run

#9 Zach Neto— · vs Riley Cornelio 27.1% Home Run

#10 Nolan Gorman— · vs David Sandlin 26.2% No Home Run

#11 Jahmai Jones— · vs Noah Cameron 26.1% No Home Run

#12 Nolan Gorman— · vs Unknown Pitcher 25.4% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Stowers— · vs Emmet Sheehan 25.2% No Home Run

#14 Royce Lewis— · vs Tanner Bibee 25.2% No Home Run

#15 Brandon Lowe— · vs Matthew Boyd 25.0% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs Baltimore Orioles 7.7 9 +1.3

Cam Schlittlervs New York Mets 7.3 8 +0.7On target

Chase Burnsvs Milwaukee Brewers 6.4 5 -1.4

Payton Tollevs Kansas City Royals 5.9 7 +1.1

Joe Ryanvs Cleveland Guardians 5.7 1 -4.7

Christian Scottvs New York Yankees 5.7 7 +1.3

Emmet Sheehanvs Miami Marlins 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Bryce Millervs Athletics 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Nick Pivettavs San Francisco Giants 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Noah Cameronvs Boston Red Sox 5.5 4 -1.5

Jacob Lopezvs Seattle Mariners 5.2 3 -2.2

Jackson Jobevs Colorado Rockies 5.2 8 +2.8

David Sandlinvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Jake Irvinvs Los Angeles Angels 5.1 6 +0.9On target

Matthew Boydvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.0 3 -2.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Bryce Harper— · vs Grant Holmes 62.3% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Robert Gasser 62.2% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Freddy Peralta 61.8% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Logan Webb 61.7% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Grant Holmes 61.4% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Matthew Boyd 61.4% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Bubba Chandler 61.1% No Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Jacob Lopez 61.0% Hit

Aaron Judge— · vs Christian Scott 61.0% No Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Grant Holmes 60.8% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 60.5% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Hayden Wesneski 60.5% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Matthew Boyd 60.5% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Cam Schlittler 60.4% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Emmet Sheehan 60.3% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kazuma Okamoto — 31.0% HR probability
Zach Neto — 27.1% HR probability
Matt Olson — 24.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Dylan Cease — proj 7.7, recorded 9
Cam Schlittler — proj 7.3, recorded 8
Payton Tolle — proj 5.9, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Joe Ryan — proj 5.7, recorded 1
Grant Holmes — proj 3.4, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kazuma Okamoto. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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