MLB Model Results — September 15, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.8 | 7 | -1.8 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Cincinnati Reds | 8.1 | 7 | -1.1 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Los Angeles Angels | 7.3 | 7 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Jacob deGrom | Boston Red Sox | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Washington Nationals | 6.9 | 5 | -1.9 | |
| Sean Manaea | Baltimore Orioles | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Kevin Gausman | Atlanta Braves | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Kansas City Royals | 5.6 | 10 | +4.4 | |
| Shane Baz | New York Mets | 5.5 | 2 | -3.5 | |
| Max Fried | Minnesota Twins | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Michael Soroka | Miami Marlins | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Patrick Sandoval | Texas Rangers | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Jack Perkins | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 | |
| Griffin Jax | Athletics | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob deGrom — proj 7.2, recorded 8
- Kevin Gausman — proj 5.8, recorded 6
- Hunter Brown — proj 5.6, recorded 10
Biggest Surprises
- Hunter Brown — proj 5.6, recorded 10
- Davis Martin — proj 3.8, recorded 0
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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