MLB Results — September 15, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 15, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Sean Manaea 31.8% Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 30.4% Home Run

#3 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Michael Soroka 30.3% No Home Run

#4 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Kyle Freeland 29.2% Home Run

#5 Jackson Merrill— · vs Kyle Freeland 28.5% No Home Run

#6 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Drew Anderson 27.9% No Home Run

#7 Zach Neto— · vs Logan Gilbert 27.7% No Home Run

#8 Nolan Gorman— · vs Blade Tidwell 25.4% No Home Run

#9 Jo Adell— · vs Chris Murphy 25.2% Home Run

#10 Austin Riley— · vs Kevin Gausman 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jackson Kent 24.2% Home Run

#12 Jac Caglianone— · vs Hunter Brown 24.2% No Home Run

#13 Michael Harris II— · vs Kevin Gausman 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Carter Jensen— · vs Hunter Brown 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Michael Wacha 23.9% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Pittsburgh Pirates 8.8 7 -1.8

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs Cincinnati Reds 8.1 7 -1.1

Logan Gilbertvs Los Angeles Angels 7.3 7 -0.3On target

Jacob deGromvs Boston Red Sox 7.2 8 +0.8On target

Cristopher Sánchezvs Washington Nationals 6.9 5 -1.9

Sean Manaeavs Baltimore Orioles 6.5 6 -0.5On target

Kevin Gausmanvs Atlanta Braves 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Hunter Brownvs Kansas City Royals 5.6 10 +4.4

Shane Bazvs New York Mets 5.5 2 -3.5

Max Friedvs Minnesota Twins 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Michael Sorokavs Miami Marlins 5.2 6 +0.8On target

Foster Griffinvs Chicago White Sox 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Patrick Sandovalvs Texas Rangers 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Jack Perkinsvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 8 +3.0

Griffin Jaxvs Athletics 5.0 7 +2.0

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Kyle Freeland 64.4% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Michael Wacha 62.4% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Martín Pérez 62.1% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Bailey Ober 62.0% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Walker Buehler 61.8% Hit

Jackson Merrill— · vs Kyle Freeland 61.8% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Ryan Johnson 61.8% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Michael Soroka 61.5% No Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Blade Tidwell 61.4% Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Ryan Johnson 61.4% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Jackson Kent 61.4% No Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Shane Baz 61.3% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jackson Kent 61.3% Hit

Luis García Jr.— · vs Bailey Ober 60.9% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 60.9% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Coby Mayo — 31.8% HR probability
Brandon Lowe — 30.4% HR probability
Fernando Tatis Jr. — 29.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jacob deGrom — proj 7.2, recorded 8
Kevin Gausman — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Hunter Brown — proj 5.6, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

Hunter Brown — proj 5.6, recorded 10
Davis Martin — proj 3.8, recorded 0

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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