MLB Results — September 1, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 1, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Nolan Gorman— · vs Eric Lauer 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Kyle Bradish 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Brandon Lowe— · vs Logan Webb 30.1% Home Run

#4 Mickey Moniak— · vs Kyle Bradish 29.7% No Home Run

#5 Jac Caglianone— · vs Tyler Phillips 28.4% No Home Run

#6 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 27.4% No Home Run

#7 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Nick Lodolo 26.2% Home Run

#8 Salvador Perez— · vs Tyler Phillips 25.4% No Home Run

#9 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Michael McGreevy 25.0% No Home Run

#10 Zach Neto— · vs Gerrit Cole 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Jackson Merrill— · vs Nick Lodolo 24.9% No Home Run

#12 Cal Raleigh— · vs Jedixson Paez 24.4% No Home Run

#13 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Randy Dobnak 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sean Burke 24.2% No Home Run

#15 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Robert Gasser 24.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Kyle Bradishvs Colorado Rockies 7.4 4 -3.4

Gerrit Colevs Los Angeles Angels 7.0 5 -2.0

Paul Skenesvs San Francisco Giants 6.4 4 -2.4

Sean Burkevs Houston Astros 6.0 6 -0.0On target

MacKenzie Gorevs Athletics 6.0 4 -2.0

Jesús Luzardovs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Bryan Woovs Boston Red Sox 5.7 7 +1.3

Gavin Williamsvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.6 13 +7.4

Sean Manaeavs Tampa Bay Rays 5.4 2 -3.4

Logan Webbvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.3 1 -4.3

Freddy Peraltavs New York Mets 5.1 7 +1.9

Grayson Rodriguezvs New York Yankees 5.0 7 +2.0

Troy Meltonvs Minnesota Twins 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Robert Gasservs Chicago Cubs 4.8 4 -0.8On target

Tyler Phillipsvs Kansas City Royals 4.8 4 -0.8On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Michael McGreevy 64.3% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Nick Lodolo 63.0% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Randy Dobnak 62.3% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Jedixson Paez 61.9% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Sean Burke 61.9% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Robert Gasser 61.6% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 61.4% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Paul Skenes 61.2% Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Jedixson Paez 61.2% Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Gabriel Hughes 61.2% Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Gabriel Hughes 61.2% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Randy Vásquez 61.2% Hit

Dominic Canzone— · vs Jedixson Paez 61.1% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Freddy Peralta 61.0% No Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Kyle Bradish 61.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Brandon Lowe — 30.1% HR probability
Fernando Tatis Jr. — 26.2% HR probability
Royce Lewis — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.9, recorded 6
Bryan Woo — proj 5.7, recorded 7
Gavin Williams — proj 5.6, recorded 13

Biggest Surprises

Gavin Williams — proj 5.6, recorded 13
Logan Webb — proj 5.3, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 30.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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