Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 1, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
436
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
September 1, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Eric Lauer | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Kyle Bradish | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Logan Webb | 30.1% | Home Run |
| #4 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 29.7% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Tyler Phillips | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 27.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Nick Lodolo | 26.2% | Home Run |
| #8 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Tyler Phillips | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael McGreevy | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Zach Neto | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 24.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Jedixson Paez | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Randy Dobnak | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Sean Burke | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Robert Gasser | 24.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | Colorado Rockies | 7.4 | 4 | -3.4 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Los Angeles Angels | 7.0 | 5 | -2.0 | |
| Paul Skenes | San Francisco Giants | 6.4 | 4 | -2.4 | |
| Sean Burke | Houston Astros | 6.0 | 6 | -0.0 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Athletics | 6.0 | 4 | -2.0 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Bryan Woo | Boston Red Sox | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Gavin Williams | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 13 | +7.4 | |
| Sean Manaea | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| Logan Webb | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | 1 | -4.3 | |
| Freddy Peralta | New York Mets | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Grayson Rodriguez | New York Yankees | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Troy Melton | Minnesota Twins | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Robert Gasser | Chicago Cubs | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Tyler Phillips | Kansas City Royals | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael McGreevy | 64.3% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Nick Lodolo | 63.0% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Randy Dobnak | 62.3% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Jedixson Paez | 61.9% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Sean Burke | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Robert Gasser | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 61.4% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Paul Skenes | 61.2% | Hit |
| Josh Naylor | Seattle Mariners | vs Jedixson Paez | 61.2% | Hit |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Gabriel Hughes | 61.2% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Gabriel Hughes | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Randy Vásquez | 61.2% | Hit |
| Dominic Canzone | Seattle Mariners | vs Jedixson Paez | 61.1% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Freddy Peralta | 61.0% | No Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Kyle Bradish | 61.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Brandon Lowe — 30.1% HR probability
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — 26.2% HR probability
- Royce Lewis — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jesús Luzardo — proj 5.9, recorded 6
- Bryan Woo — proj 5.7, recorded 7
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.6, recorded 13
Biggest Surprises
- Gavin Williams — proj 5.6, recorded 13
- Logan Webb — proj 5.3, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 30.1% — result: Home Run.
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