Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — August 31, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
13
Games covered
336
Hitters evaluated
26
Pitchers evaluated
August 31, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tanner Gordon | 31.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Unknown Pitcher | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Cade Povich | 29.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Will Dion | 29.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Payton Tolle | 28.0% | Home Run |
| #6 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Brady Singer | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Kyle Harrison | 26.1% | Home Run |
| #8 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Peter Lambert | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tanner Gordon | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Brady Singer | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Kyle Harrison | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Unknown Pitcher | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Peter Lambert | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #15 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Anthony Kay | 24.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | Seattle Mariners | 7.2 | 6 | -1.2 | |
| Taj Bradley | Detroit Tigers | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Chicago Cubs | 6.3 | 3 | -3.3 | |
| Michael King | Cincinnati Reds | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Ian Seymour | New York Mets | 6.0 | 10 | +4.0 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Athletics | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| Gage Jump | Texas Rangers | 5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Tanner Gordon | Baltimore Orioles | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Peter Lambert | Chicago White Sox | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Walbert Ureña | New York Yankees | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| Aaron Nola | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| Brandon Pfaadt | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 | |
| Bryce Elder | San Francisco Giants | 4.8 | 3 | -1.8 | |
| George Kirby | Boston Red Sox | 4.7 | 2 | -2.7 | |
| Clay Holmes | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.3 | 8 | +3.7 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 63.9% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Bryce Elder | 63.5% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Anthony Kay | 62.9% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Brady Singer | 62.7% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tanner Gordon | 62.5% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 62.5% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Michael King | 62.4% | No Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Clay Holmes | 62.3% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Kyle Harrison | 62.2% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Drake Baldwin | — | vs Anthony Molina | 62.1% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Walbert Ureña | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Robert Stock | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tanner Gordon | 61.8% | No Hit |
| Zach Neto | — | vs Elmer Rodríguez | 61.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Cal Raleigh — 28.0% HR probability
- Michael Conforto — 26.1% HR probability
- Colson Montgomery — 24.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Taj Bradley — proj 6.3, recorded 9
- Ian Seymour — proj 6.0, recorded 10
- Jacob deGrom — proj 6.0, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Anthony Molina — proj 0.8, recorded 6
- Brandon Pfaadt — proj 5.1, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Cal Raleigh. Model HR probability 28.0% — result: Home Run.
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