MLB Results — August 31, 2026

MLB Model Results — August 31, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Tanner Gordon 31.8% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Unknown Pitcher 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Cade Povich 29.6% No Home Run

#4 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Will Dion 29.0% No Home Run

#5 Cal Raleigh— · vs Payton Tolle 28.0% Home Run

#6 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Brady Singer 26.2% No Home Run

#7 Michael Conforto— · vs Kyle Harrison 26.1% Home Run

#8 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Peter Lambert 26.1% No Home Run

#9 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 25.4% No Home Run

#10 Pete Alonso— · vs Tanner Gordon 25.4% No Home Run

#11 Jackson Merrill— · vs Brady Singer 25.3% No Home Run

#12 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Kyle Harrison 25.2% No Home Run

#13 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Unknown Pitcher 24.4% No Home Run

#14 Colson Montgomery— · vs Peter Lambert 24.1% Home Run

#15 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Anthony Kay 24.1% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Payton Tollevs Seattle Mariners 7.2 6 -1.2

Taj Bradleyvs Detroit Tigers 6.3 9 +2.7

Kyle Harrisonvs Chicago Cubs 6.3 3 -3.3

Michael Kingvs Cincinnati Reds 6.2 6 -0.2On target

Ian Seymourvs New York Mets 6.0 10 +4.0

Jacob deGromvs Athletics 6.0 8 +2.0

Gage Jumpvs Texas Rangers 5.8 2 -3.8

Tanner Gordonvs Baltimore Orioles 5.6 3 -2.6

Peter Lambertvs Chicago White Sox 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Walbert Ureñavs New York Yankees 5.5 8 +2.5

Aaron Nolavs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.2 4 -1.2

Brandon Pfaadtvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.1 1 -4.1

Bryce Eldervs San Francisco Giants 4.8 3 -1.8

George Kirbyvs Boston Red Sox 4.7 2 -2.7

Clay Holmesvs Milwaukee Brewers 4.3 8 +3.7

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Bryce Harper— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 63.9% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Bryce Elder 63.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Anthony Kay 62.9% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Brady Singer 62.7% Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Tanner Gordon 62.5% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 62.5% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Michael King 62.4% No Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Clay Holmes 62.3% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Kyle Harrison 62.2% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 62.1% No Hit

Drake Baldwin— · vs Anthony Molina 62.1% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Walbert Ureña 62.1% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Robert Stock 62.0% No Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Tanner Gordon 61.8% No Hit

Zach Neto— · vs Elmer Rodríguez 61.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Cal Raleigh — 28.0% HR probability
Michael Conforto — 26.1% HR probability
Colson Montgomery — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Taj Bradley — proj 6.3, recorded 9
Ian Seymour — proj 6.0, recorded 10
Jacob deGrom — proj 6.0, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Anthony Molina — proj 0.8, recorded 6
Brandon Pfaadt — proj 5.1, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Cal Raleigh. Model HR probability 28.0% — result: Home Run.

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