Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 2, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
438
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
September 2, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Trevor Rogers | 31.7% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 31.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Noah Cameron | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Zach Neto | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 30.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Joey Cantillo | 28.6% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Eury Pérez | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Landen Roupp | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Taylor Clarke | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Nolan Gorman | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Hayden Wesneski | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | James Wood | — | vs Grant Holmes | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Trent Grisham | — | vs Reid Detmers | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Unknown Pitcher | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Jo Adell | — | vs Dylan Cease | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler | Los Angeles Angels | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 | |
| Reid Detmers | New York Yankees | 7.4 | 8 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Chicago Cubs | 7.2 | 5 | -2.2 | |
| Dylan Cease | Cleveland Guardians | 6.6 | 4 | -2.6 | |
| Griffin Jax | New York Mets | 6.3 | 1 | -5.3 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | St. Louis Cardinals | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| Noah Cameron | Miami Marlins | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Eury Pérez | Kansas City Royals | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Jacob Lopez | Texas Rangers | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Patrick Sandoval | Seattle Mariners | 5.3 | 2 | -3.3 | |
| David Peterson | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| Bryce Miller | Boston Red Sox | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| Landen Roupp | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| Trevor Rogers | Colorado Rockies | 5.3 | 11 | +5.7 | |
| Dean Kremer | Detroit Tigers | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Brandon Williamson | 64.4% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Taylor Clarke | 62.5% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 62.1% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Bubba Chandler | 62.1% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Unknown Pitcher | 61.8% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Casey Mize | 61.7% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Taylor Clarke | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Landen Roupp | 61.5% | Hit |
| Samad Taylor | — | vs Brandon Williamson | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Jackson Merrill | — | vs Brandon Williamson | 61.4% | No Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 61.4% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Davis Martin | 61.2% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Griffin Jax | 61.0% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Patrick Sandoval | 60.9% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability
- Rafael Devers — 18.8% HR probability
- Kyle Stowers — 18.6% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Cam Schlittler — proj 7.8, recorded 9
- Reid Detmers — proj 7.4, recorded 8
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 6.0, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Trevor Rogers — proj 5.3, recorded 11
- Griffin Jax — proj 6.3, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Salvador Perez. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.
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