MLB Results — July 30, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Brandon Lowe— · vs Rhett Lowder 31.1% Home Run

#2 Royce Lewis— · vs Noah Cameron 28.6% No Home Run

#3 Jac Caglianone— · vs Bailey Ober 26.6% Home Run

#4 Luke Raley— · vs Roki Sasaki 26.0% No Home Run

#5 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Ryan Weathers 24.3% No Home Run

#6 Colson Montgomery— · vs Ryan Weathers 24.2% No Home Run

#7 Salvador Perez— · vs Bailey Ober 24.2% No Home Run

#8 James Wood— · vs Grant Holmes 24.1% No Home Run

#9 Cal Raleigh— · vs Roki Sasaki 23.9% No Home Run

#10 Francisco Lindor— · vs Eury Pérez 23.9% No Home Run

#11 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Nolan McLean 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Ryan Weathers 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Miguel Vargas— · vs Ryan Weathers 23.8% No Home Run

#14 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Yohan Ramírez 23.8% No Home Run

#15 Michael Conforto— · vs Andre Pallante 23.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Eury Pérezvs New York Mets 5.7 6 +0.3On target

Nolan McLeanvs Miami Marlins 5.7 6 +0.3On target

Sean Burkevs New York Yankees 5.5 10 +4.5

Roki Sasakivs Seattle Mariners 5.4 7 +1.6

Bryan Woovs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 8 +2.9

Jake Irvinvs Atlanta Braves 5.1 1 -4.1

Sonny Grayvs Athletics 5.1 5 -0.1On target

JP Searsvs San Francisco Giants 4.5 2 -2.5

Ryan Weathersvs Chicago White Sox 4.5 4 -0.5On target

Shane McClanahanvs Texas Rangers 4.5 3 -1.5

Noah Cameronvs Minnesota Twins 4.5 7 +2.5

Andre Pallantevs Chicago Cubs 4.3 3 -1.3

Grant Holmesvs Washington Nationals 4.2 4 -0.2On target

Javier Assadvs St. Louis Cardinals 4.2 6 +1.8

Rhett Lowdervs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.1 5 +0.9On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Unknown Pitcher 63.0% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Sonny Gray 63.0% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Andre Pallante 62.2% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs JP Sears 62.1% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Bryan Woo 60.9% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Cole Winn 60.8% Hit

Alec Burleson— · vs Javier Assad 60.5% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Grant Holmes 60.5% No Hit

James Wood— · vs Grant Holmes 60.4% No Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Roki Sasaki 60.2% Hit

Heliot Ramos— · vs JP Sears 60.1% Hit

Nick Kurtz— · vs Sonny Gray 60.1% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Yohan Ramírez 59.9% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Rhett Lowder 59.7% Hit

Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Andre Pallante 59.7% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Brandon Lowe — 31.1% HR probability
Jac Caglianone — 26.6% HR probability
Kody Clemens — 23.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Eury Pérez — proj 5.7, recorded 6
Nolan McLean — proj 5.7, recorded 6
Sean Burke — proj 5.5, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

Sean Burke — proj 5.5, recorded 10
Jake Irvin — proj 5.1, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 31.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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