Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 30, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
10
Games covered
263
Hitters evaluated
20
Pitchers evaluated
July 30, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 31.1% | Home Run |
| #2 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Noah Cameron | 28.6% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Bailey Ober | 26.6% | Home Run |
| #4 | Luke Raley | — | vs Roki Sasaki | 26.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | vs Ryan Weathers | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Ryan Weathers | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | vs Bailey Ober | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Grant Holmes | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Roki Sasaki | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Eury Pérez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Nolan McLean | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Andrew Benintendi | Chicago White Sox | vs Ryan Weathers | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Miguel Vargas | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Yohan Ramírez | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Andre Pallante | 23.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eury Pérez | New York Mets | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Nolan McLean | Miami Marlins | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Sean Burke | New York Yankees | 5.5 | 10 | +4.5 | |
| Roki Sasaki | Seattle Mariners | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Bryan Woo | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 8 | +2.9 | |
| Jake Irvin | Atlanta Braves | 5.1 | 1 | -4.1 | |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| JP Sears | San Francisco Giants | 4.5 | 2 | -2.5 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Chicago White Sox | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Shane McClanahan | Texas Rangers | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Noah Cameron | Minnesota Twins | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 | |
| Andre Pallante | Chicago Cubs | 4.3 | 3 | -1.3 | |
| Grant Holmes | Washington Nationals | 4.2 | 4 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Javier Assad | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.2 | 6 | +1.8 | |
| Rhett Lowder | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.1 | 5 | +0.9 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Unknown Pitcher | 63.0% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Sonny Gray | 63.0% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Andre Pallante | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | — | vs JP Sears | 62.1% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Bryan Woo | 60.9% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Cole Winn | 60.8% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | vs Javier Assad | 60.5% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Grant Holmes | 60.5% | No Hit |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Grant Holmes | 60.4% | No Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Roki Sasaki | 60.2% | Hit |
| Heliot Ramos | — | vs JP Sears | 60.1% | Hit |
| Nick Kurtz | — | vs Sonny Gray | 60.1% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Yohan Ramírez | 59.9% | Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 59.7% | Hit |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | vs Andre Pallante | 59.7% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Brandon Lowe — 31.1% HR probability
- Jac Caglianone — 26.6% HR probability
- Kody Clemens — 23.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Eury Pérez — proj 5.7, recorded 6
- Nolan McLean — proj 5.7, recorded 6
- Sean Burke — proj 5.5, recorded 10
Biggest Surprises
- Sean Burke — proj 5.5, recorded 10
- Jake Irvin — proj 5.1, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 31.1% — result: Home Run.
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