Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 29, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
446
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
July 29, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Jesús Luzardo | 31.0% | Home Run |
| #2 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 30.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Tarik Skubal | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Zack Littell | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Kyle Hart | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Joe Ryan | 27.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Unknown Pitcher | 26.6% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 26.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Jacob Lopez | 26.1% | Home Run |
| #10 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Emerson Hancock | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | vs Joe Ryan | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Luke Raley | — | vs Eric Lauer | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Joey Cantillo | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | James Wood | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Cam Schlittler | 24.0% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Baltimore Orioles | 8.0 | 6 | -2.0 | |
| Chris Sale | New York Mets | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 | |
| Joe Ryan | Kansas City Royals | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Christian Scott | Atlanta Braves | 5.9 | 7 | +1.1 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Miami Marlins | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Cam Schlittler | Chicago White Sox | 5.6 | 8 | +2.4 | |
| Hayden Wesneski | Los Angeles Angels | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Gabriel Hughes | San Diego Padres | 5.6 | 2 | -3.6 | |
| Jared Jones | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | Cincinnati Reds | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Washington Nationals | 5.2 | 4 | -1.2 | |
| MacKenzie Gore | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.2 | 9 | +3.8 | |
| Thomas Pannone | San Francisco Giants | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Emerson Hancock | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Dustin May | Chicago Cubs | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Grayson Rodriguez | 64.5% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Emerson Hancock | 64.4% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Joey Cantillo | 62.4% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Gabriel Hughes | 61.9% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Ryan Gusto | 61.7% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | vs Eric Lauer | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Patrick Sandoval | 61.3% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Trey Yesavage | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Emerson Hancock | 61.0% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 61.0% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Davis Martin | 60.9% | Hit |
| Trevor Larnach | — | vs Randy Dobnak | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Julio Rodríguez | — | vs Eric Lauer | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | Boston Red Sox | vs Jacob Lopez | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Dominic Canzone | — | vs Eric Lauer | 60.4% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Heriberto Hernández — 31.0% HR probability
- Jahmai Jones — 26.1% HR probability
- Munetaka Murakami — 23.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Chris Sale — proj 7.3, recorded 9
- Christian Scott — proj 5.9, recorded 7
- Cam Schlittler — proj 5.6, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Jacob Lopez — proj 4.1, recorded 8
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 5.2, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.
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