MLB Results — July 29, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 29, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Jesús Luzardo 31.0% Home Run

#2 Brandon Lowe— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 30.1% No Home Run

#3 Coby Mayo— · vs Tarik Skubal 30.0% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Zack Littell 28.4% No Home Run

#5 Hunter Goodman— · vs Kyle Hart 28.0% No Home Run

#6 Jac Caglianone— · vs Joe Ryan 27.4% No Home Run

#7 Hunter Goodman— · vs Unknown Pitcher 26.6% No Home Run

#8 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 26.5% No Home Run

#9 Jahmai Jones— · vs Jacob Lopez 26.1% Home Run

#10 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Emerson Hancock 25.2% No Home Run

#11 Salvador Perez— · vs Joe Ryan 25.2% No Home Run

#12 Luke Raley— · vs Eric Lauer 25.2% No Home Run

#13 Elly De La Cruz— · vs Joey Cantillo 24.2% No Home Run

#14 James Wood— · vs Trey Yesavage 24.1% No Home Run

#15 Colson Montgomery— · vs Cam Schlittler 24.0% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs Baltimore Orioles 8.0 6 -2.0

Chris Salevs New York Mets 7.3 9 +1.7

Joe Ryanvs Kansas City Royals 6.2 4 -2.2

Christian Scottvs Atlanta Braves 5.9 7 +1.1

Jesús Luzardovs Miami Marlins 5.6 5 -0.6On target

Cam Schlittlervs Chicago White Sox 5.6 8 +2.4

Hayden Wesneskivs Los Angeles Angels 5.6 4 -1.6

Gabriel Hughesvs San Diego Padres 5.6 2 -3.6

Jared Jonesvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Joey Cantillovs Cincinnati Reds 5.4 8 +2.6

Trey Yesavagevs Washington Nationals 5.2 4 -1.2

MacKenzie Gorevs Tampa Bay Rays 5.2 9 +3.8

Thomas Pannonevs San Francisco Giants 5.1 2 -3.1

Emerson Hancockvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Dustin Mayvs Chicago Cubs 5.1 3 -2.1

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Grayson Rodriguez 64.5% No Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Emerson Hancock 64.4% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Joey Cantillo 62.4% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Gabriel Hughes 61.9% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Ryan Gusto 61.7% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Eric Lauer 61.3% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Patrick Sandoval 61.3% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Trey Yesavage 61.2% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Emerson Hancock 61.0% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Eduardo Rodriguez 61.0% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Davis Martin 60.9% Hit

Trevor Larnach— · vs Randy Dobnak 60.6% No Hit

Julio Rodríguez— · vs Eric Lauer 60.6% No Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Jacob Lopez 60.5% No Hit

Dominic Canzone— · vs Eric Lauer 60.4% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Heriberto Hernández — 31.0% HR probability
Jahmai Jones — 26.1% HR probability
Munetaka Murakami — 23.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Chris Sale — proj 7.3, recorded 9
Christian Scott — proj 5.9, recorded 7
Cam Schlittler — proj 5.6, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Jacob Lopez — proj 4.1, recorded 8
MacKenzie Gore — proj 5.2, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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