MLB Results — July 31, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 31, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Michael Wacha 31.1% No Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Andrew Painter 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Freddy Peralta 30.0% No Home Run

#4 Jahmai Jones— · vs Edgardo Henriquez 29.8% No Home Run

#5 Jac Caglianone— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 29.0% No Home Run

#6 Salvador Perez— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 29.0% No Home Run

#7 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 28.4% No Home Run

#8 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Kodai Senga 27.3% No Home Run

#9 Jackson Merrill— · vs Carson Whisenhunt 26.4% No Home Run

#10 Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Carson Whisenhunt 26.2% No Home Run

#11 Brandon Lowe— · vs Hunter Greene 26.2% No Home Run

#12 Zach Neto— · vs Shane Drohan 25.0% No Home Run

#13 Austin Riley— · vs Foster Griffin 25.0% No Home Run

#14 Mickey Moniak— · vs Michael Wacha 24.9% No Home Run

#15 Pete Alonso— · vs Andrew Painter 24.4% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Hunter Greenevs Pittsburgh Pirates 7.3 4 -3.3

Paul Skenesvs Cincinnati Reds 7.1 7 -0.1On target

Nathan Eovaldivs Houston Astros 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Dylan Ceasevs St. Louis Cardinals 5.8 7 +1.2

Shane Drohanvs Los Angeles Angels 5.6 7 +1.4

Ranger Suarezvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.4 2 -3.4

Shota Imanagavs New York Yankees 5.4 6 +0.6On target

Hunter Brownvs Texas Rangers 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Foster Griffinvs Atlanta Braves 5.2 3 -2.2

Kodai Sengavs Miami Marlins 5.1 4 -1.1

Bryce Eldervs Washington Nationals 5.0 3 -2.0

Brandon Youngvs Philadelphia Phillies 4.5 5 +0.5On target

Zebby Matthewsvs Seattle Mariners 4.5 10 +5.5

Bryce Millervs Minnesota Twins 4.5 3 -1.5

Will Warrenvs Chicago Cubs 4.5 7 +2.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Ranger Suarez 64.5% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Carson Whisenhunt 62.3% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Brandon Young 62.3% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Kodai Senga 62.3% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs Janson Junk 62.2% No Hit

Enrique Hernández— · vs Ranger Suarez 62.2% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Nathan Eovaldi 62.2% Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Bryce Elder 62.1% Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Erick Fedde 62.0% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Brandon Young 61.9% No Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Tyler Holton 61.8% No Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Bradgley Rodriguez 61.7% No Hit

Mickey Moniak— · vs Michael Wacha 61.6% Hit

James Wood— · vs Bryce Elder 61.6% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Paul Skenes 61.5% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Pete Alonso — 24.4% HR probability
Carter Jensen — 24.2% HR probability
Shohei Ohtani — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Dylan Cease — proj 5.8, recorded 7
Shane Drohan — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Shota Imanaga — proj 5.4, recorded 6

Biggest Surprises

Zebby Matthews — proj 4.5, recorded 10
Ranger Suarez — proj 5.4, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Pete Alonso. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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