Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 31, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
451
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
July 31, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 | |
| Paul Skenes | Cincinnati Reds | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Houston Astros | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Dylan Cease | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 | |
| Shane Drohan | Los Angeles Angels | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Ranger Suarez | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| Shota Imanaga | New York Yankees | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Texas Rangers | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Kodai Senga | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Bryce Elder | Washington Nationals | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Brandon Young | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Zebby Matthews | Seattle Mariners | 4.5 | 10 | +5.5 | |
| Bryce Miller | Minnesota Twins | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Will Warren | Chicago Cubs | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 5.8, recorded 7
- Shane Drohan — proj 5.6, recorded 7
- Shota Imanaga — proj 5.4, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Zebby Matthews — proj 4.5, recorded 10
- Ranger Suarez — proj 5.4, recorded 2
Highest Performing Projection — Strikeout Projection: Dylan Cease. Projected 5.8 strikeouts — recorded 7.
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