Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 31, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
451
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
July 31, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Michael Wacha | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Andrew Painter | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Freddy Peralta | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Jahmai Jones | — | vs Edgardo Henriquez | 29.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 29.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 29.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Heriberto Hernández | Miami Marlins | vs Kodai Senga | 27.3% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Jackson Merrill | San Diego Padres | vs Carson Whisenhunt | 26.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Carson Whisenhunt | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Hunter Greene | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Zach Neto | Los Angeles Angels | vs Shane Drohan | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Austin Riley | — | vs Foster Griffin | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Mickey Moniak | — | vs Michael Wacha | 24.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Andrew Painter | 24.4% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.3 | 4 | -3.3 | |
| Paul Skenes | Cincinnati Reds | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Houston Astros | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Dylan Cease | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.8 | 7 | +1.2 | |
| Shane Drohan | Los Angeles Angels | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Ranger Suarez | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| Shota Imanaga | New York Yankees | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Hunter Brown | Texas Rangers | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Kodai Senga | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Bryce Elder | Washington Nationals | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Brandon Young | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Zebby Matthews | Seattle Mariners | 4.5 | 10 | +5.5 | |
| Bryce Miller | Minnesota Twins | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Will Warren | Chicago Cubs | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Ranger Suarez | 64.5% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Carson Whisenhunt | 62.3% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brandon Young | 62.3% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Kodai Senga | 62.3% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Janson Junk | 62.2% | No Hit |
| Enrique Hernández | — | vs Ranger Suarez | 62.2% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 62.2% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | — | vs Bryce Elder | 62.1% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Erick Fedde | 62.0% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Brandon Young | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Tyler Holton | 61.8% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Bradgley Rodriguez | 61.7% | No Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | — | vs Michael Wacha | 61.6% | Hit |
| James Wood | — | vs Bryce Elder | 61.6% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Paul Skenes | 61.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Pete Alonso — 24.4% HR probability
- Carter Jensen — 24.2% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 5.8, recorded 7
- Shane Drohan — proj 5.6, recorded 7
- Shota Imanaga — proj 5.4, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Zebby Matthews — proj 4.5, recorded 10
- Ranger Suarez — proj 5.4, recorded 2
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Pete Alonso. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.
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