Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 22, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
13
Games covered
364
Hitters evaluated
26
Pitchers evaluated
June 22, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Jake Bennett | 23.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Eric Lauer | 23.2% | Home Run |
| #3 | Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 23.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Bryce Harper | — | vs Foster Griffin | 22.7% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Sam Aldegheri | 22.6% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Austin Riley | — | vs Michael King | 22.3% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 22.3% | Home Run |
| #8 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Sam Aldegheri | 19.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Michael Wacha | 19.5% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Sam Aldegheri | 19.5% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Foster Griffin | 19.5% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | vs Gerrit Cole | 19.5% | Home Run |
| #13 | Christian Walker | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 19.5% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Max Muncy | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 19.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 18.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Houston Astros | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 | |
| Gavin Williams | Chicago White Sox | 6.3 | 8 | +1.7 | |
| Kyle Bradish | Los Angeles Angels | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | |
| Hunter Brown | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Drew Rasmussen | Kansas City Royals | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Gerrit Cole | Detroit Tigers | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Foster Griffin | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 | |
| Zebby Matthews | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Michael King | Atlanta Braves | 4.0 | 5 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Michael Wacha | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.9 | 5 | +1.1 | |
| Kumar Rocker | Miami Marlins | 3.9 | 9 | +5.2 | |
| Andre Pallante | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 | |
| Eric Lauer | Minnesota Twins | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 | |
| Merrill Kelly | St. Louis Cardinals | 3.9 | 2 | -1.9 | |
| Grant Holmes | San Diego Padres | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Dingler | Detroit Tigers | vs Gerrit Cole | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Colt Keith | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 61.8% | Hit |
| Kevin McGonigle | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 60.3% | Hit |
| Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 60.3% | Hit |
| Esteury Ruiz | — | vs Tyler Alexander | 59.5% | No Hit |
| Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | vs Gerrit Cole | 58.8% | Hit |
| Anthony Volpe | — | vs Framber Valdez | 58.7% | Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Sam Aldegheri | 57.8% | Hit |
| Amed Rosario | — | vs Framber Valdez | 57.5% | Hit |
| Austin Hedges | — | vs Anthony Kay | 57.5% | No Hit |
| Daniel Schneemann | — | vs Anthony Kay | 57.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Tyler Alexander | 57.3% | Hit |
| Colton Cowser | Baltimore Orioles | vs Sam Aldegheri | 57.0% | No Hit |
| Josh Bell | Minnesota Twins | vs Eric Lauer | 57.0% | No Hit |
| Bryson Stott | — | vs Foster Griffin | 56.9% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Byron Buxton — 23.2% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 22.3% HR probability
- Riley Greene — 19.5% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Gavin Williams — proj 6.3, recorded 8
- Kyle Bradish — proj 5.8, recorded 9
- Gerrit Cole — proj 5.0, recorded 5
Biggest Surprises
- Kumar Rocker — proj 3.9, recorded 9
- Jake Bennett — proj 3.9, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 23.2% — result: Home Run.
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