MLB Results — June 22, 2026

MLB Model Results — June 22, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Jake Bennett 23.4% No Home Run

#2 Byron Buxton— · vs Eric Lauer 23.2% Home Run

#3 Kerry Carpenter— · vs Gerrit Cole 23.0% No Home Run

#4 Bryce Harper— · vs Foster Griffin 22.7% No Home Run

#5 Pete Alonso— · vs Sam Aldegheri 22.6% No Home Run

#6 Austin Riley— · vs Michael King 22.3% No Home Run

#7 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Zebby Matthews 22.3% Home Run

#8 Tyler O'Neill— · vs Sam Aldegheri 19.5% No Home Run

#9 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Michael Wacha 19.5% No Home Run

#10 Gunnar Henderson— · vs Sam Aldegheri 19.5% No Home Run

#11 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Foster Griffin 19.5% No Home Run

#12 Riley Greene— · vs Gerrit Cole 19.5% Home Run

#13 Christian Walker— · vs Unknown Pitcher 19.5% No Home Run

#14 Max Muncy— · vs Zebby Matthews 19.1% No Home Run

#15 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Unknown Pitcher 18.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs Houston Astros 9.4 8 -1.4

Gavin Williamsvs Chicago White Sox 6.3 8 +1.7

Kyle Bradishvs Los Angeles Angels 5.8 9 +3.2

Hunter Brownvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.8 4 -1.8

Drew Rasmussenvs Kansas City Royals 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Gerrit Colevs Detroit Tigers 5.0 5 +0.0On target

Foster Griffinvs Philadelphia Phillies 5.0 9 +4.0

Zebby Matthewsvs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.8 5 +0.2On target

Michael Kingvs Atlanta Braves 4.0 5 +1.0On target

Michael Wachavs Tampa Bay Rays 3.9 5 +1.1

Kumar Rockervs Miami Marlins 3.9 9 +5.2

Andre Pallantevs Arizona Diamondbacks 3.9 2 -1.9

Eric Lauervs Minnesota Twins 3.9 2 -1.9

Merrill Kellyvs St. Louis Cardinals 3.9 2 -1.9

Grant Holmesvs San Diego Padres 3.9 4 +0.1On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Dillon Dingler— · vs Gerrit Cole 62.1% No Hit

Colt Keith— · vs Gerrit Cole 61.8% Hit

Kevin McGonigle— · vs Gerrit Cole 60.3% Hit

Kerry Carpenter— · vs Gerrit Cole 60.3% Hit

Esteury Ruiz— · vs Tyler Alexander 59.5% No Hit

Riley Greene— · vs Gerrit Cole 58.8% Hit

Anthony Volpe— · vs Framber Valdez 58.7% Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Sam Aldegheri 57.8% Hit

Amed Rosario— · vs Framber Valdez 57.5% Hit

Austin Hedges— · vs Anthony Kay 57.5% No Hit

Daniel Schneemann— · vs Anthony Kay 57.4% Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Tyler Alexander 57.3% Hit

Colton Cowser— · vs Sam Aldegheri 57.0% No Hit

Josh Bell— · vs Eric Lauer 57.0% No Hit

Bryson Stott— · vs Foster Griffin 56.9% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Byron Buxton — 23.2% HR probability
Shohei Ohtani — 22.3% HR probability
Riley Greene — 19.5% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Gavin Williams — proj 6.3, recorded 8
Kyle Bradish — proj 5.8, recorded 9
Gerrit Cole — proj 5.0, recorded 5

Biggest Surprises

Kumar Rocker — proj 3.9, recorded 9
Jake Bennett — proj 3.9, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 23.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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