Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 20, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
365
Hitters evaluated
28
Pitchers evaluated
June 20, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Paul Skenes | 19.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Zac Gallen | 19.2% | Home Run |
| #4 | Christian Walker | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 18.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Connelly Early | 18.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Bryce Harper | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 17.3% | Home Run |
| #7 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Troy Melton | 17.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Juan Soto | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 16.8% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Freddy Peralta | 16.7% | Home Run |
| #10 | Shohei Ohtani | — | vs Trevor Rogers | 16.5% | Home Run |
| #11 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Austin Riley | — | vs Kyle Harrison | 16.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 16.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Jake Burger | — | vs Walker Buehler | 16.0% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | Colorado Rockies | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| Trevor McDonald | Miami Marlins | 5.8 | 1 | -4.8 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | New York Mets | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| J.T. Ginn | Los Angeles Angels | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Chris Sale | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| Will Warren | Cincinnati Reds | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Baltimore Orioles | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Max Meyer | San Francisco Giants | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 1 | -4.4 | |
| Walbert Ureña | Athletics | 5.4 | 6 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Cleveland Guardians | 5.3 | 8 | +2.7 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Atlanta Braves | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Emerson Hancock | Boston Red Sox | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Taj Bradley | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 60.8% | Hit |
| Amed Rosario | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 59.2% | No Hit |
| Bo Bichette | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 58.8% | Hit |
| Jake Burger | — | vs Walker Buehler | 58.2% | Hit |
| Cody Bellinger | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 58.1% | Hit |
| Endy Rodríguez | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 57.5% | No Hit |
| Joc Pederson | — | vs Walker Buehler | 57.2% | No Hit |
| Ezequiel Duran | — | vs Walker Buehler | 56.9% | No Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 56.8% | Hit |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 56.6% | No Hit |
| Elias Díaz | — | vs Walker Buehler | 56.6% | No Hit |
| Brandon Valenzuela | — | vs Colin Rea | 56.4% | Hit |
| Nick Gonzales | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 56.4% | No Hit |
| Jake Mangum | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 56.4% | Hit |
| Josh Bell | Minnesota Twins | vs Zac Gallen | 56.3% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Byron Buxton — 19.2% HR probability
- Bryce Harper — 17.3% HR probability
- Kyle Schwarber — 16.7% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Paul Skenes — proj 6.0, recorded 8
- Chris Sale — proj 5.5, recorded 7
- Will Warren — proj 5.4, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Trevor McDonald — proj 5.8, recorded 1
- Joey Cantillo — proj 4.6, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 19.2% — result: Home Run.
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