Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 13, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
390
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 13, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Matthew Liberatore | 18.4% | Home Run |
| #2 | Nick Kurtz | Athletics | vs Kyle Freeland | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Kyle Freeland | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Sean Burke | 18.4% | Home Run |
| #5 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Joey Estes | 18.2% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Randy Vásquez | 17.9% | Home Run |
| #7 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Noah Cameron | 17.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Drohan | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Noah Cameron | 17.5% | Home Run |
| #10 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Martín Pérez | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Kyle Freeland | 17.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Drohan | 17.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Lake Bachar | 16.8% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs José Soriano | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Mike Trout | — | vs Griffin Jax | 15.7% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Chicago White Sox | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Michael Soroka | Cincinnati Reds | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Kevin Gausman | New York Yankees | 6.3 | 7 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Jacob deGrom | Boston Red Sox | 6.3 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| Joey Estes | Colorado Rockies | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Luis Castillo | Washington Nationals | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Noah Cameron | Houston Astros | 6.0 | 1 | -5.0 | |
| Cade Cavalli | Seattle Mariners | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Ranger Suarez | Texas Rangers | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Ben Brown | San Francisco Giants | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| Martín Pérez | New York Mets | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Sean Burke | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.6 | 6 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Tarik Skubal | Cleveland Guardians | 5.5 | 4 | -1.5 | |
| José Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Shane Drohan | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Noah Cameron | 65.0% | Hit |
| Jake Burger | Texas Rangers | vs Ranger Suarez | 65.0% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Matthew Liberatore | 65.0% | Hit |
| Nick Kurtz | Athletics | vs Kyle Freeland | 65.0% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Kyle Freeland | 64.7% | Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Lake Bachar | 64.4% | No Hit |
| Shea Langeliers | Athletics | vs Kyle Freeland | 64.2% | Hit |
| Colt Keith | — | vs Joey Cantillo | 64.2% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Trey Gibson | 64.0% | Hit |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Randy Vásquez | 64.0% | Hit |
| Dillon Dingler | Detroit Tigers | vs Joey Cantillo | 63.7% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Kevin Gausman | 63.7% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Connor Prielipp | 63.5% | Hit |
| Blaze Alexander | Baltimore Orioles | vs Randy Vásquez | 63.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Byron Buxton — 18.4% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 18.4% HR probability
- Pete Alonso — 17.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 6.4, recorded 7
- Michael Soroka — proj 6.4, recorded 7
- Kevin Gausman — proj 6.3, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Noah Cameron — proj 6.0, recorded 1
- Rhett Lowder — proj 1.1, recorded 6
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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