MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 12, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 12, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
405
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 12, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Kyle Leahy18.4%Home Run
#2Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Gage Jump18.2%No Home Run
#3Shea LangeliersAthleticsvs Unknown Pitcher17.8%Home Run
#4Pete AlonsoBaltimore Oriolesvs Griffin Canning17.5%No Home Run
#5Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Jacob Misiorowski17.5%No Home Run
#6Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Spencer Strider17.5%Home Run
#7Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Luinder Avila17.4%Home Run
#8Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Sandy Alcantara17.4%Home Run
#9Taylor Ward—vs Griffin Canning17.1%No Home Run
#10Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Jacob Misiorowski17.0%No Home Run
#11Tyler SoderstromAthleticsvs Unknown Pitcher16.9%No Home Run
#12Colson Montgomery—vs Roki Sasaki16.7%No Home Run
#13Tyler O'Neill—vs Griffin Canning16.7%No Home Run
#14Nick KurtzAthleticsvs Unknown Pitcher16.7%Home Run
#15Ketel MarteArizona Diamondbacksvs Nick Lodolo16.5%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Jacob MisiorowskiPhiladelphia Phillies8.015+7.0
Bryce MillerWashington Nationals7.47-0.4On Target
Nolan McLeanAtlanta Braves7.16-1.1
Ryan WeathersToronto Blue Jays6.82-4.8
Trey YesavageNew York Yankees6.73-3.7
Braxton AshcraftMiami Marlins6.54-2.5
Shane BazSan Diego Padres6.21-5.2
Roki SasakiChicago White Sox6.14-2.1
Spencer StriderNew York Mets6.13-3.1
Jack LeiterBoston Red Sox5.73-2.7
Joe RyanSt. Louis Cardinals5.78+2.3
Shane McClanahanLos Angeles Angels5.67+1.4
Tanner BibeeDetroit Tigers5.68+2.4
Jack FlahertyCleveland Guardians5.41-4.4
Sandy AlcantaraPittsburgh Pirates5.37+1.7
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Luis García Jr.—vs Bryce Miller65.0%No Hit
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Gage Jump65.0%No Hit
Freddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgersvs Anthony Kay65.0%No Hit
Matt McLain—vs Eduardo Rodriguez65.0%No Hit
Blake Dunn—vs Eduardo Rodriguez65.0%No Hit
Andrew Vaughn—vs Andrew Painter65.0%No Hit
Mickey Gasper—vs Jack Leiter65.0%Hit
Coby Mayo—vs Griffin Canning65.0%No Hit
Dominic Canzone—vs Zack Littell65.0%Hit
Gabriel MorenoArizona Diamondbacksvs Nick Lodolo65.0%Hit
Joc PedersonTexas Rangersvs Sonny Gray65.0%Hit
Rhys Hoskins—vs Jack Flaherty65.0%Hit
Andy PagesLos Angeles Dodgersvs Anthony Kay65.0%No Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Jacob Misiorowski65.0%No Hit
Travis Bazzana—vs Jack Flaherty65.0%No Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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