MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 12, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersAnalytics LabHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
← June 11, 2026Back to Results ArchiveJune 13, 2026 →
Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 12, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
405
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 12, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Kyle Leahy18.4%Home Run
#2Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Gage Jump18.2%No Home Run
#3Shea LangeliersAthleticsvs Unknown Pitcher17.8%Home Run
#4Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Jacob Misiorowski17.5%No Home Run
#5Pete Alonso—vs Griffin Canning17.5%No Home Run
#6Juan Soto—vs Spencer Strider17.5%Home Run
#7Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Sandy Alcantara17.4%Home Run
#8Christian Walker—vs Luinder Avila17.4%Home Run
#9Taylor Ward—vs Griffin Canning17.1%No Home Run
#10Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Jacob Misiorowski17.0%No Home Run
#11Tyler SoderstromAthleticsvs Unknown Pitcher16.9%No Home Run
#12Nick KurtzAthleticsvs Unknown Pitcher16.7%Home Run
#13Tyler O'Neill—vs Griffin Canning16.7%No Home Run
#14Colson Montgomery—vs Roki Sasaki16.7%No Home Run
#15Ketel Marte—vs Nick Lodolo16.5%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Jacob MisiorowskiPhiladelphia Phillies8.015+7.0
Bryce MillerWashington Nationals7.47-0.4On Target
Nolan McLeanAtlanta Braves7.16-1.1
Ryan WeathersToronto Blue Jays6.82-4.8
Trey YesavageNew York Yankees6.73-3.7
Braxton AshcraftMiami Marlins6.54-2.5
Shane BazSan Diego Padres6.21-5.2
Roki SasakiChicago White Sox6.14-2.1
Spencer StriderNew York Mets6.13-3.1
Jack LeiterBoston Red Sox5.73-2.7
Joe RyanSt. Louis Cardinals5.78+2.3
Shane McClanahanLos Angeles Angels5.67+1.4
Tanner BibeeDetroit Tigers5.68+2.4
Jack FlahertyCleveland Guardians5.41-4.4
Sandy AlcantaraPittsburgh Pirates5.37+1.7
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Joc Pederson—vs Sonny Gray65.0%Hit
Rhys Hoskins—vs Jack Flaherty65.0%Hit
Andrew Vaughn—vs Andrew Painter65.0%No Hit
Gabriel Moreno—vs Nick Lodolo65.0%Hit
Mickey Gasper—vs Jack Leiter65.0%Hit
Freddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgersvs Anthony Kay65.0%No Hit
Luis García Jr.Washington Nationalsvs Bryce Miller65.0%No Hit
Blake Dunn—vs Eduardo Rodriguez65.0%No Hit
Matt McLain—vs Eduardo Rodriguez65.0%No Hit
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Gage Jump65.0%No Hit
Sal Stewart—vs Eduardo Rodriguez65.0%No Hit
Dane MyersCincinnati Redsvs Eduardo Rodriguez65.0%No Hit
Spencer Steer—vs Eduardo Rodriguez65.0%No Hit
Corbin CarrollArizona Diamondbacksvs Nick Lodolo65.0%Hit
Colton Cowser—vs Griffin Canning65.0%No Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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