Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 12, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
405
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 12, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 18.4% | Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Gage Jump | 18.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shea Langeliers | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 17.8% | Home Run |
| #4 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Griffin Canning | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Spencer Strider | 17.5% | Home Run |
| #7 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Sandy Alcantara | 17.4% | Home Run |
| #8 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Luinder Avila | 17.4% | Home Run |
| #9 | Taylor Ward | Seattle Mariners | vs Griffin Canning | 17.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 17.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 16.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 16.7% | Home Run |
| #13 | Tyler O'Neill | — | vs Griffin Canning | 16.7% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Roki Sasaki | 16.7% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Ketel Marte | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 16.5% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Philadelphia Phillies | 8.0 | 15 | +7.0 | |
| Bryce Miller | Washington Nationals | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Nolan McLean | Atlanta Braves | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.8 | 2 | -4.8 | |
| Trey Yesavage | New York Yankees | 6.7 | 3 | -3.7 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Miami Marlins | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| Shane Baz | San Diego Padres | 6.2 | 1 | -5.2 | |
| Roki Sasaki | Chicago White Sox | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Spencer Strider | New York Mets | 6.1 | 3 | -3.1 | |
| Jack Leiter | Boston Red Sox | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| Joe Ryan | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Shane McClanahan | Los Angeles Angels | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Tanner Bibee | Detroit Tigers | 5.6 | 8 | +2.4 | |
| Jack Flaherty | Cleveland Guardians | 5.4 | 1 | -4.4 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | — | vs Sonny Gray | 65.0% | Hit |
| Rhys Hoskins | — | vs Jack Flaherty | 65.0% | Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Andrew Painter | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Gabriel Moreno | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 65.0% | Hit |
| Mickey Gasper | — | vs Jack Leiter | 65.0% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Anthony Kay | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Luis García Jr. | — | vs Bryce Miller | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Blake Dunn | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Matt McLain | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Gage Jump | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Sal Stewart | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Dane Myers | Cincinnati Reds | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Spencer Steer | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Corbin Carroll | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 65.0% | Hit |
| Colton Cowser | — | vs Griffin Canning | 65.0% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Byron Buxton — 18.4% HR probability
- Shea Langeliers — 17.8% HR probability
- Juan Soto — 17.5% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.0, recorded 15
- Joe Ryan — proj 5.7, recorded 8
- Shane McClanahan — proj 5.6, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.0, recorded 15
- Shane Baz — proj 6.2, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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