Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 14, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
392
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
June 14, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ketel Marte | Arizona Diamondbacks | vs Andrew Abbott | 28.5% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Michael McGreevy | 22.5% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Jeffrey Springs | 22.1% | Home Run |
| #4 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Stephen Kolek | 21.7% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Kyle Harrison | 21.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Trevor Rogers | 21.3% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Erick Fedde | 20.1% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Erick Fedde | 19.8% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Nick Kurtz | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 19.7% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Walker Buehler | 19.6% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Max Meyer | 19.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 19.0% | Home Run |
| #13 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Bryce Elder | 18.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Stephen Kolek | 18.5% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | vs Casey Legumina | 18.3% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.3 | 9 | +2.7 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Boston Red Sox | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Emerson Hancock | Washington Nationals | 6.3 | 2 | -4.3 | |
| Emmet Sheehan | Chicago White Sox | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.9 | 3 | -2.9 | |
| Connelly Early | Texas Rangers | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Kansas City Royals | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Paul Skenes | Miami Marlins | 5.6 | 10 | +4.4 | |
| Will Warren | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 1 | -4.6 | |
| Logan Webb | Chicago Cubs | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Freddy Peralta | Atlanta Braves | 5.5 | 2 | -3.5 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Bryce Elder | New York Mets | 5.5 | 2 | -3.5 | |
| Taj Bradley | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Stephen Kolek | Houston Astros | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Erick Fedde | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Liam Hicks | — | vs Paul Skenes | 65.0% | Hit |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Jeffrey Springs | 65.0% | Hit |
| Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Stephen Kolek | 65.0% | Hit |
| Geraldo Perdomo | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 65.0% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Michael McGreevy | 65.0% | Hit |
| Tommy Troy | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 65.0% | Hit |
| Nolan Arenado | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 65.0% | Hit |
| Dominic Canzone | — | vs Miles Mikolas | 65.0% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Erick Fedde | 65.0% | No Hit |
| JJ Bleday | — | vs Zac Gallen | 65.0% | Hit |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | vs Andrew Abbott | 65.0% | Hit |
| Corbin Carroll | — | vs Andrew Abbott | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Patrick Corbin | 65.0% | Hit |
| Otto Lopez | — | vs Paul Skenes | 65.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 22.1% HR probability
- Tyler Soderstrom — 19.0% HR probability
- Junior Caminero — 16.4% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Max Meyer — proj 6.3, recorded 9
- Emmet Sheehan — proj 6.0, recorded 8
- Spencer Arrighetti — proj 5.7, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Will Warren — proj 5.6, recorded 1
- Paul Skenes — proj 5.6, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 22.1% — result: Home Run.
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