Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 9, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
6
Games covered
126
Hitters evaluated
11
Pitchers evaluated
April 9, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 8.9% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Seth Lugo | 4.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Royce Lewis | — | vs Jack Flaherty | 4.3% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Liam Hicks | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 4.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Carter Jensen | — | vs Anthony Kay | 4.3% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Matt Wallner | — | vs Jack Flaherty | 4.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Max Meyer | 4.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Owen Caissie | Miami Marlins | vs Rhett Lowder | 4.0% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Jose Fernandez | — | vs Nolan McLean | 3.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Griffin Conine | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 3.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Ryan Weathers | 3.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Dillon Dingler | — | vs Mick Abel | 3.8% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Mark Vientos | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 3.8% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 3.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Mick Abel | 3.7% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.4 | 8 | +2.6 | |
| Max Meyer | Cincinnati Reds | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Jeffrey Springs | New York Yankees | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 | |
| Jack Flaherty | Minnesota Twins | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 | |
| Seth Lugo | Chicago White Sox | 4.3 | 4 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Rhett Lowder | Miami Marlins | 4.0 | 2 | -2.0 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Athletics | 4.0 | 7 | +3.0 | |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | New York Mets | 4.0 | 3 | -1.0 | |
| Randy Vásquez | Colorado Rockies | 4.0 | 8 | +4.0 | |
| Mick Abel | Detroit Tigers | 3.2 | 6 | +2.8 | |
| Anthony Kay | Kansas City Royals | 2.9 | 6 | +3.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Stewart | — | vs Max Meyer | 61.1% | Hit |
| Aaron Judge | — | vs Jeffrey Springs | 58.8% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs Max Meyer | 58.8% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 58.6% | Hit |
| Ildemaro Vargas | — | vs Nolan McLean | 58.0% | Hit |
| TJ Friedl | — | vs Max Meyer | 58.0% | No Hit |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Jack Flaherty | 57.7% | No Hit |
| Nathaniel Lowe | — | vs Max Meyer | 57.7% | No Hit |
| Gleyber Torres | — | vs Mick Abel | 57.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Isbel | — | vs Anthony Kay | 57.2% | No Hit |
| Francisco Alvarez | New York Mets | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 56.7% | No Hit |
| Maikel Garcia | — | vs Anthony Kay | 56.3% | Hit |
| Jeff McNeil | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 56.1% | No Hit |
| Colt Keith | — | vs Mick Abel | 56.0% | Hit |
| Josh Bell | — | vs Jack Flaherty | 55.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Sal Stewart — 2.8% HR probability
- Josh Bell — 2.6% HR probability
- Luis Robert Jr. — 2.5% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Nolan McLean — proj 5.4, recorded 8
- Jeffrey Springs — proj 4.3, recorded 6
- Jack Flaherty — proj 4.3, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Randy Vásquez — proj 4.0, recorded 8
- Anthony Kay — proj 2.9, recorded 6
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Sal Stewart. Model HR probability 2.8% — result: Home Run.
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