Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — March 31, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
14
Games covered
368
Hitters evaluated
28
Pitchers evaluated
March 31, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs PJ Poulin | 21.8% | Home Run |
| #2 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Tanner Bibee | 19.8% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 19.5% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Max Fried | 19.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jo Adell | — | vs Jameson Taillon | 18.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | James Wood | — | vs Andrew Painter | 18.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Andre Pallante | 17.6% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Riley Greene | — | vs Brandon Pfaadt | 17.5% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jacob deGrom | 17.4% | Home Run |
| #10 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Brandon Woodruff | 17.3% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Brandon Williamson | 17.1% | Home Run |
| #12 | Corbin Carroll | — | vs Casey Mize | 16.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Michael Busch | Chicago Cubs | vs José Soriano | 16.5% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 15.6% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Rafael Devers | — | vs Germán Márquez | 15.5% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | Boston Red Sox | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 | |
| Brandon Woodruff | Tampa Bay Rays | 8.8 | 6 | -2.8 | |
| Logan Gilbert | New York Yankees | 8.6 | 6 | -2.6 | |
| Bubba Chandler | Cincinnati Reds | 8.6 | 6 | -2.6 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Baltimore Orioles | 8.1 | 7 | -1.1 | |
| Logan Webb | San Diego Padres | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 | |
| José Suarez | Athletics | 7.4 | 6 | -1.4 | |
| Max Fried | Seattle Mariners | 7.2 | 6 | -1.2 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | Cleveland Guardians | 7.0 | 6 | -1.0 | |
| Janson Junk | Chicago White Sox | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| Tanner Bibee | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| José Soriano | Chicago Cubs | 6.4 | 4 | -2.4 | |
| Jameson Taillon | Los Angeles Angels | 6.2 | 3 | -3.2 | |
| Brandon Williamson | Pittsburgh Pirates | 6.2 | 3 | -3.2 | |
| Max Scherzer | Colorado Rockies | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Frelick | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Shane McClanahan | 69.3% | Hit |
| Ernie Clement | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 69.1% | Hit |
| Brendan Donovan | — | vs Max Fried | 68.8% | Hit |
| Henry Davis | — | vs Brandon Williamson | 68.7% | No Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Max Fried | 68.6% | Hit |
| Jung Hoo Lee | — | vs Germán Márquez | 68.5% | Hit |
| Steven Kwan | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 68.4% | No Hit |
| Jacob Young | — | vs Andrew Painter | 68.4% | No Hit |
| Spencer Horwitz | — | vs Brandon Williamson | 68.3% | No Hit |
| Adam Frazier | — | vs Jameson Taillon | 68.1% | No Hit |
| Alec Bohm | — | vs PJ Poulin | 68.1% | No Hit |
| Curtis Mead | — | vs Andrew Painter | 68.0% | No Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jacob deGrom | 67.9% | Hit |
| Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees | vs Logan Gilbert | 67.9% | Hit |
| Brice Turang | — | vs Shane McClanahan | 67.8% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kyle Schwarber — 21.8% HR probability
- Pete Alonso — 17.4% HR probability
- Oneil Cruz — 17.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Andrew Painter — proj 5.8, recorded 8
- Kodai Senga — proj 5.1, recorded 9
- Casey Mize — proj 5.1, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Casey Mize — proj 5.1, recorded 9
- PJ Poulin — proj 4.9, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 21.8% — result: Home Run.
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