MLB Results — March 31, 2026

MLB Model Results — March 31, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs PJ Poulin 21.8% Home Run

#2 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Tanner Bibee 19.8% No Home Run

#3 Aaron Judge— · vs Logan Gilbert 19.5% No Home Run

#4 Cal Raleigh— · vs Max Fried 19.4% No Home Run

#5 Jo Adell— · vs Jameson Taillon 18.7% No Home Run

#6 James Wood— · vs Andrew Painter 18.1% No Home Run

#7 Juan Soto— · vs Andre Pallante 17.6% No Home Run

#8 Riley Greene— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 17.5% No Home Run

#9 Pete Alonso— · vs Jacob deGrom 17.4% Home Run

#10 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Brandon Woodruff 17.3% No Home Run

#11 Oneil Cruz— · vs Brandon Williamson 17.1% Home Run

#12 Corbin Carroll— · vs Casey Mize 16.9% No Home Run

#13 Michael Busch— · vs José Soriano 16.5% No Home Run

#14 Jazz Chisholm Jr.— · vs Logan Gilbert 15.6% No Home Run

#15 Rafael Devers— · vs Germán Márquez 15.5% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Hunter Brownvs Boston Red Sox 9.4 8 -1.4

Brandon Woodruffvs Tampa Bay Rays 8.8 6 -2.8

Logan Gilbertvs New York Yankees 8.6 6 -2.6

Bubba Chandlervs Cincinnati Reds 8.6 6 -2.6

Jacob deGromvs Baltimore Orioles 8.1 7 -1.1

Logan Webbvs San Diego Padres 7.5 5 -2.5

José Suarezvs Athletics 7.4 6 -1.4

Max Friedvs Seattle Mariners 7.2 6 -1.2

Shohei Ohtanivs Cleveland Guardians 7.0 6 -1.0

Janson Junkvs Chicago White Sox 6.8 5 -1.8

Tanner Bibeevs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.5 4 -2.5

José Sorianovs Chicago Cubs 6.4 4 -2.4

Jameson Taillonvs Los Angeles Angels 6.2 3 -3.2

Brandon Williamsonvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.2 3 -3.2

Max Scherzervs Colorado Rockies 5.9 4 -1.9

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Sal FrelickMilwaukee Brewers · vs Shane McClanahan 69.3% Hit

Ernie Clement— · vs Ryan Feltner 69.1% Hit

Brendan Donovan— · vs Max Fried 68.8% Hit

Henry Davis— · vs Brandon Williamson 68.7% No Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Max Fried 68.6% Hit

Jung Hoo Lee— · vs Germán Márquez 68.5% Hit

Steven Kwan— · vs Shohei Ohtani 68.4% No Hit

Jacob Young— · vs Andrew Painter 68.4% No Hit

Spencer Horwitz— · vs Brandon Williamson 68.3% No Hit

Adam Frazier— · vs Jameson Taillon 68.1% No Hit

Alec Bohm— · vs PJ Poulin 68.1% No Hit

Curtis Mead— · vs Andrew Painter 68.0% No Hit

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Jacob deGrom 67.9% Hit

Cody Bellinger— · vs Logan Gilbert 67.9% Hit

Brice TurangMilwaukee Brewers · vs Shane McClanahan 67.8% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Kyle Schwarber — 21.8% HR probability
Pete Alonso — 17.4% HR probability
Oneil Cruz — 17.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Andrew Painter — proj 5.8, recorded 8
Kodai Senga — proj 5.1, recorded 9
Casey Mize — proj 5.1, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Casey Mize — proj 5.1, recorded 9
PJ Poulin — proj 4.9, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 21.8% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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