MLB Results — March 30, 2026

MLB Model Results — March 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Foster Griffin 22.2% No Home Run

#2 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Parker Messick 21.3% No Home Run

#3 Aaron Judge— · vs Luis Castillo 21.1% No Home Run

#4 Cal Raleigh— · vs Ryan Weathers 20.1% No Home Run

#5 Jo Adell— · vs Edward Cabrera 19.4% No Home Run

#6 Oneil Cruz— · vs Chase Burns 18.6% No Home Run

#7 Byron Buxton— · vs Kris Bubic 18.4% No Home Run

#8 Riley Greene— · vs Michael Soroka 18.4% No Home Run

#9 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Kyle Harrison 17.8% No Home Run

#10 James Wood— · vs Taijuan Walker 17.7% No Home Run

#11 Corbin Carroll— · vs Justin Verlander 17.5% Home Run

#12 Jazz Chisholm Jr.— · vs Luis Castillo 17.3% No Home Run

#13 Pete Alonso— · vs Jack Leiter 17.3% No Home Run

#14 Taylor Ward— · vs Jack Leiter 17.2% No Home Run

#15 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Ryan Johnson 17.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chase Burnsvs Pittsburgh Pirates 10.8 7 -3.8

Braxton Ashcraftvs Cincinnati Reds 8.4 3 -5.4

Kyle Harrisonvs Tampa Bay Rays 7.9 8 +0.1On target

Kris Bubicvs Minnesota Twins 7.9 4 -3.9

Kyle Leahyvs New York Mets 7.6 1 -6.6

Ranger Suarezvs Houston Astros 7.3 3 -4.3

Edward Cabreravs Los Angeles Angels 7.3 5 -2.3

Jacob Lopezvs Atlanta Braves 7.2 0 -7.2

Michael Sorokavs Detroit Tigers 7.0 10 +3.0

Chris Bassittvs Texas Rangers 6.8 3 -3.8

Luis Castillovs New York Yankees 6.6 7 +0.4On target

Cody Poncevs Colorado Rockies 6.3 3 -3.3

Bryce Eldervs Athletics 6.2 5 -1.2

Parker Messickvs Los Angeles Dodgers 6.0 5 -1.0On target

Taijuan Walkervs Washington Nationals 5.9 2 -3.9

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Jung Hoo Lee— · vs Walker Buehler 70.4% No Hit

Brice TurangMilwaukee Brewers · vs Nick Martinez 70.1% Hit

Ernie Clement— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 69.9% Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Ryan Weathers 69.9% No Hit

Bo Bichette— · vs Kyle Leahy 69.6% Hit

Brendan Donovan— · vs Ryan Weathers 69.6% Hit

Cody Bellinger— · vs Luis Castillo 69.4% No Hit

Jacob Wilson— · vs Bryce Elder 69.3% No Hit

Ryan O'Hearn— · vs Chase Burns 69.0% Hit

Alejandro Kirk— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 69.0% No Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Parker Messick 68.9% No Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Parker Messick 68.9% Hit

Sal FrelickMilwaukee Brewers · vs Nick Martinez 68.8% No Hit

Nico Hoerner— · vs Ryan Johnson 68.7% Hit

Steven Kwan— · vs Roki Sasaki 68.7% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Corbin Carroll — 17.5% HR probability
George Springer — 15.5% HR probability
Matt Wallner — 12.6% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Kyle Harrison — proj 7.9, recorded 8
Michael Soroka — proj 7.0, recorded 10
Luis Castillo — proj 6.6, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Jacob Lopez — proj 7.2, recorded 0
Kyle Leahy — proj 7.6, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Corbin Carroll. Model HR probability 17.5% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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