Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — March 30, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
401
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
March 30, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Foster Griffin | 22.2% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Parker Messick | 21.3% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Aaron Judge | — | vs Luis Castillo | 21.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 20.1% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Jo Adell | — | vs Edward Cabrera | 19.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Chase Burns | 18.6% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Kris Bubic | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Riley Greene | — | vs Michael Soroka | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Kyle Harrison | 17.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | James Wood | — | vs Taijuan Walker | 17.7% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Corbin Carroll | — | vs Justin Verlander | 17.5% | Home Run |
| #12 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | — | vs Luis Castillo | 17.3% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jack Leiter | 17.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Taylor Ward | — | vs Jack Leiter | 17.2% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 17.2% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | Pittsburgh Pirates | 10.8 | 7 | -3.8 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Cincinnati Reds | 8.4 | 3 | -5.4 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Tampa Bay Rays | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Kris Bubic | Minnesota Twins | 7.9 | 4 | -3.9 | |
| Kyle Leahy | New York Mets | 7.6 | 1 | -6.6 | |
| Ranger Suarez | Houston Astros | 7.3 | 3 | -4.3 | |
| Edward Cabrera | Los Angeles Angels | 7.3 | 5 | -2.3 | |
| Jacob Lopez | Atlanta Braves | 7.2 | 0 | -7.2 | |
| Michael Soroka | Detroit Tigers | 7.0 | 10 | +3.0 | |
| Chris Bassitt | Texas Rangers | 6.8 | 3 | -3.8 | |
| Luis Castillo | New York Yankees | 6.6 | 7 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Cody Ponce | Colorado Rockies | 6.3 | 3 | -3.3 | |
| Bryce Elder | Athletics | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Parker Messick | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.0 | 5 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Taijuan Walker | Washington Nationals | 5.9 | 2 | -3.9 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jung Hoo Lee | — | vs Walker Buehler | 70.4% | No Hit |
| Brice Turang | — | vs Nick Martinez | 70.1% | Hit |
| Ernie Clement | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 69.9% | Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 69.9% | No Hit |
| Bo Bichette | — | vs Kyle Leahy | 69.6% | Hit |
| Brendan Donovan | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 69.6% | Hit |
| Cody Bellinger | New York Yankees | vs Luis Castillo | 69.4% | No Hit |
| Jacob Wilson | — | vs Bryce Elder | 69.3% | No Hit |
| Ryan O'Hearn | — | vs Chase Burns | 69.0% | Hit |
| Alejandro Kirk | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 69.0% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Parker Messick | 68.9% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Parker Messick | 68.9% | Hit |
| Sal Frelick | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Nick Martinez | 68.8% | No Hit |
| Nico Hoerner | — | vs Ryan Johnson | 68.7% | Hit |
| Steven Kwan | — | vs Roki Sasaki | 68.7% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Corbin Carroll — 17.5% HR probability
- George Springer — 15.5% HR probability
- Matt Wallner — 12.6% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Kyle Harrison — proj 7.9, recorded 8
- Michael Soroka — proj 7.0, recorded 10
- Luis Castillo — proj 6.6, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Jacob Lopez — proj 7.2, recorded 0
- Kyle Leahy — proj 7.6, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Corbin Carroll. Model HR probability 17.5% — result: Home Run.
Explore More