MLB Results

MLB Model Results — April 1, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — April 1, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
393
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
April 1, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Cade Cavalli22.6%No Home Run
#2Aaron Judge—vs George Kirby20.9%No Home Run
#3Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Gavin Williams20.0%No Home Run
#4Jo Adell—vs Matthew Boyd19.7%No Home Run
#5Cal Raleigh—vs Cam Schlittler19.7%No Home Run
#6Riley Greene—vs Zac Gallen18.4%No Home Run
#7Pete AlonsoBaltimore Oriolesvs Nathan Eovaldi18.4%No Home Run
#8James Wood—vs Cristopher Sánchez18.3%No Home Run
#9Junior CamineroTampa Bay Raysvs Jacob Misiorowski17.3%No Home Run
#10Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Matthew Liberatore17.1%Home Run
#11Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Noah Cameron17.0%No Home Run
#12Oneil Cruz—vs Andrew Abbott16.9%Home Run
#13Jazz Chisholm Jr.—vs George Kirby16.5%No Home Run
#14Corbin Carroll—vs Tarik Skubal16.4%Home Run
#15Pete Crow-Armstrong—vs Yusei Kikuchi16.1%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Kevin GausmanColorado Rockies10.810-0.8On Target
Cristopher SánchezWashington Nationals10.17-3.1
Chris SaleAthletics9.83-6.8
Garrett CrochetHouston Astros9.87-2.8
Yoshinobu YamamotoCleveland Guardians9.32-7.3
Matthew BoydLos Angeles Angels8.610+1.4
Tarik SkubalArizona Diamondbacks8.43-5.4
Jacob MisiorowskiTampa Bay Rays8.37-1.3
Cam SchlittlerSeattle Mariners8.17-1.1
Trevor RogersTexas Rangers8.03-5.0
George KirbyNew York Yankees7.96-1.9
Nick PivettaSan Francisco Giants7.88+0.2On Target
Joe RyanKansas City Royals7.83-4.8
Sandy AlcantaraChicago White Sox7.47-0.4On Target
Freddy PeraltaSt. Louis Cardinals7.37-0.3On Target
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Ernie Clement—vs Kyle Freeland69.9%Hit
Jung Hoo Lee—vs Nick Pivetta69.2%No Hit
Sal FrelickMilwaukee Brewersvs Drew Rasmussen68.8%No Hit
Maikel Garcia—vs Joe Ryan68.4%Hit
Alec Burleson—vs Freddy Peralta68.3%No Hit
Josh Naylor—vs Cam Schlittler68.2%No Hit
Brice Turang—vs Drew Rasmussen68.1%Hit
Trevor Story—vs Mike Burrows68.1%No Hit
Gunnar HendersonBaltimore Oriolesvs Nathan Eovaldi68.0%No Hit
Paul Goldschmidt—vs George Kirby68.0%Hit
Jacob Wilson—vs Chris Sale68.0%Hit
Lenyn Sosa—vs Sandy Alcantara68.0%No Hit
Tyler Soderstrom—vs Chris Sale67.9%No Hit
Alejandro Kirk—vs Kyle Freeland67.8%Hit
Luis Arraez—vs Nick Pivetta67.8%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

  • Juan Soto — 17.1% HR probability
  • Oneil Cruz — 16.9% HR probability
  • Corbin Carroll — 16.4% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

  • Matthew Boyd — proj 8.6, recorded 10
  • Nick Pivetta — proj 7.8, recorded 8
  • Gavin Williams — proj 6.0, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto — proj 9.3, recorded 2
  • Chris Sale — proj 9.8, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Juan Soto. Model HR probability 17.1% — result: Home Run.
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