MLB Model Results — September 22, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Milwaukee Brewers | 7.3 | 11 | +3.7 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Houston Astros | 6.8 | 3 | -3.8 | |
| Taj Bradley | San Francisco Giants | 6.6 | 6 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Parker Messick | Boston Red Sox | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Drew Anderson | Washington Nationals | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Miami Marlins | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| JR Ritchie | Cincinnati Reds | 6.0 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| Payton Tolle | Cleveland Guardians | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Sean Manaea | Texas Rangers | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | |
| Jared Jones | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 | |
| Cristian Javier | Seattle Mariners | 5.4 | 2 | -3.4 | |
| Michael Soroka | Colorado Rockies | 5.1 | 9 | +3.9 | |
| Max Fried | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Carlos Rodón | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.0 | 8 | +3.0 | |
| Michael King | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 7.3, recorded 11
- Shota Imanaga — proj 6.0, recorded 7
- JR Ritchie — proj 6.0, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Drew Rasmussen — proj 4.0, recorded 11
- Michael Soroka — proj 5.1, recorded 9
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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