MLB Results — September 22, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 22, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Michael Soroka 31.2% No Home Run

#2 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Dustin May 31.1% No Home Run

#3 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Shota Imanaga 31.1% No Home Run

#4 Brandon Lowe— · vs Andre Pallante 31.0% No Home Run

#5 Coby Mayo— · vs Max Scherzer 31.0% No Home Run

#6 Jac Caglianone— · vs Anthony Kay 26.6% No Home Run

#7 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Chris Bassitt 26.5% No Home Run

#8 Jo Adell— · vs Payton Tolle 25.2% No Home Run

#9 Cal Raleigh— · vs Cristian Javier 25.2% No Home Run

#10 Zach Neto— · vs Brady Basso 25.0% No Home Run

#11 Jackson Merrill— · vs Brock Stewart 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Salvador Perez— · vs Anthony Kay 24.4% No Home Run

#13 Michael Conforto— · vs Janson Junk 24.2% No Home Run

#14 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Logan Gilbert 24.2% Home Run

#15 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Janson Junk 24.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Zack Wheelervs Milwaukee Brewers 7.3 11 +3.7

Logan Gilbertvs Houston Astros 6.8 3 -3.8

Taj Bradleyvs San Francisco Giants 6.6 6 -0.6On target

Parker Messickvs Boston Red Sox 6.2 5 -1.2

Drew Andersonvs Washington Nationals 6.1 5 -1.1

Shota Imanagavs Miami Marlins 6.0 7 +1.0On target

JR Ritchievs Cincinnati Reds 6.0 8 +2.0

Payton Tollevs Cleveland Guardians 5.9 5 -0.9On target

Sean Manaeavs Texas Rangers 5.8 9 +3.2

Jared Jonesvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 9 +3.3

Cristian Javiervs Seattle Mariners 5.4 2 -3.4

Michael Sorokavs Colorado Rockies 5.1 9 +3.9

Max Friedvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.1 4 -1.1

Carlos Rodónvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.0 8 +3.0

Michael Kingvs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Brock Stewart 63.6% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs JR Ritchie 63.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Logan Gilbert 63.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Dustin May 62.6% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Andre Pallante 62.4% No Hit

Ketel Marte— · vs Kyle Freeland 62.3% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Unknown Pitcher 62.2% Hit

Shea Langeliers— · vs Yusei Kikuchi 62.1% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Nick Martinez 62.1% No Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Andre Pallante 62.0% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Janson Junk 61.9% Hit

Brett Baty— · vs MacKenzie Gore 61.8% Hit

Zach Neto— · vs Brady Basso 61.7% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs MacKenzie Gore 61.5% Hit

Gabriel Moreno— · vs Kyle Freeland 61.4% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Yordan Alvarez — 24.2% HR probability
Pete Alonso — 24.1% HR probability
Mickey Moniak — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Zack Wheeler — proj 7.3, recorded 11
Shota Imanaga — proj 6.0, recorded 7
JR Ritchie — proj 6.0, recorded 8

Biggest Surprises

Drew Rasmussen — proj 4.0, recorded 11
Michael Soroka — proj 5.1, recorded 9

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 24.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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