Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 20, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
446
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
September 20, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Jacob deGrom | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Hunter Goodman | — | vs Kade Anderson | 29.2% | Home Run |
| #4 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 29.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Jonah Tong | 28.6% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Brandon Lowe | — | vs Michael Wacha | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 25.2% | Home Run |
| #8 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Lake Bachar | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Elly De La Cruz | — | vs David Peterson | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Troy Melton | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Lake Bachar | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jacob Misiorowski | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Ryan Johnson | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Cristopher Sánchez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Baltimore Orioles | 8.8 | 4 | -4.8 | |
| Gavin Williams | Athletics | 7.8 | 9 | +1.2 | |
| Cristopher Sánchez | New York Mets | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Jack Perkins | Cleveland Guardians | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Dean Kremer | Los Angeles Angels | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Hunter Brown | Atlanta Braves | 5.6 | 10 | +4.4 | |
| Quinn Mathews | Washington Nationals | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 | |
| David Peterson | Cincinnati Reds | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 | |
| Griffin Jax | Boston Red Sox | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Michael Wacha | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Will Warren | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Troy Melton | Chicago White Sox | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Jonah Tong | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Kade Anderson | Colorado Rockies | 4.4 | 7 | +2.6 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | — | vs Sandy Alcantara | 62.5% | Hit |
| Randy Arozarena | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 62.3% | No Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | — | vs David Peterson | 62.1% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Martín Pérez | 62.0% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | — | vs Jonah Tong | 61.8% | Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | — | vs Michael Wacha | 61.2% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | — | vs Rhett Lowder | 61.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | — | vs Michael Wacha | 60.9% | Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs Corbin Burnes | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | — | vs Jonah Tong | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | — | vs Patrick Sandoval | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | — | vs Walker Buehler | 60.7% | Hit |
| Dominic Canzone | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 60.7% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | — | vs Brandon Young | 60.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 29.2% HR probability
- Pete Crow-Armstrong — 25.2% HR probability
- Michael Conforto — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Gavin Williams — proj 7.8, recorded 9
- Dean Kremer — proj 5.7, recorded 8
- Hunter Brown — proj 5.6, recorded 10
Biggest Surprises
- Brandon Young — proj 4.2, recorded 9
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.8, recorded 4
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 29.2% — result: Home Run.
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