MLB Results — September 20, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 20, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 31.0% No Home Run

#2 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Jacob deGrom 31.0% No Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Kade Anderson 29.2% Home Run

#4 Cal Raleigh— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 29.0% No Home Run

#5 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jonah Tong 28.6% No Home Run

#6 Brandon Lowe— · vs Michael Wacha 25.4% No Home Run

#7 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Rhett Lowder 25.2% Home Run

#8 Jac Caglianone— · vs Lake Bachar 24.4% No Home Run

#9 Jackson Merrill— · vs Sandy Alcantara 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Elly De La Cruz— · vs David Peterson 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Troy Melton 23.9% No Home Run

#12 Salvador Perez— · vs Lake Bachar 23.9% No Home Run

#13 Pete Alonso— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 23.9% No Home Run

#14 Royce Lewis— · vs Ryan Johnson 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Francisco Lindor— · vs Cristopher Sánchez 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Jacob Misiorowskivs Baltimore Orioles 8.8 4 -4.8

Gavin Williamsvs Athletics 7.8 9 +1.2

Cristopher Sánchezvs New York Mets 6.2 6 -0.2On target

Jack Perkinsvs Cleveland Guardians 5.8 4 -1.8

Jacob deGromvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.8 2 -3.8

Dean Kremervs Los Angeles Angels 5.7 8 +2.3

Hunter Brownvs Atlanta Braves 5.6 10 +4.4

Quinn Mathewsvs Washington Nationals 5.4 3 -2.4

David Petersonvs Cincinnati Reds 5.3 7 +1.7

Griffin Jaxvs Boston Red Sox 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Michael Wachavs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Will Warrenvs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.1 4 -1.1

Troy Meltonvs Chicago White Sox 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Jonah Tongvs Philadelphia Phillies 4.5 5 +0.5On target

Kade Andersonvs Colorado Rockies 4.4 7 +2.6

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Sandy Alcantara 62.5% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 62.3% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs David Peterson 62.1% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Martín Pérez 62.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Jonah Tong 61.8% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Michael Wacha 61.2% Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Rhett Lowder 61.1% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Michael Wacha 60.9% Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 60.9% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Corbin Burnes 60.8% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Jonah Tong 60.8% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Patrick Sandoval 60.8% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Walker Buehler 60.7% Hit

Dominic Canzone— · vs Tomoyuki Sugano 60.7% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Brandon Young 60.6% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 29.2% HR probability
Pete Crow-Armstrong — 25.2% HR probability
Michael Conforto — 23.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Gavin Williams — proj 7.8, recorded 9
Dean Kremer — proj 5.7, recorded 8
Hunter Brown — proj 5.6, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

Brandon Young — proj 4.2, recorded 9
Jacob Misiorowski — proj 8.8, recorded 4

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 29.2% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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