Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 21, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
3
Games covered
85
Hitters evaluated
6
Pitchers evaluated
September 21, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Coby Mayo | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 31.2% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #3 | Riley Greene | — | vs DJ Herz | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Shane Baz | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Samuel Basallo | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 18.5% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Gunnar Henderson | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 18.4% | Home Run |
| #7 | James Wood | — | vs River Ryan | 18.1% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Dylan Beavers | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 17.8% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Colton Cowser | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 17.6% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Daylen Lile | — | vs River Ryan | 17.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 17.1% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jeremiah Jackson | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 16.0% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kody Clemens | — | vs Blade Tidwell | 16.0% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Abimelec Ortiz | — | vs River Ryan | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Hao-Yu Lee | — | vs DJ Herz | 14.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Herz | Detroit Tigers | 5.8 | 4 | -1.8 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 3 | -2.7 | |
| River Ryan | Washington Nationals | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Blade Tidwell | Minnesota Twins | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Zebby Matthews | San Francisco Giants | 4.6 | 9 | +4.4 | |
| Shane Baz | Toronto Blue Jays | 4.3 | 2 | -2.3 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 59.6% | Hit |
| Brett Bateman | — | vs Shane Baz | 59.1% | No Hit |
| Pete Alonso | — | vs Trey Yesavage | 58.4% | Hit |
| Luke Keaschall | — | vs Blade Tidwell | 58.0% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs River Ryan | 57.9% | No Hit |
| James Wood | — | vs River Ryan | 57.5% | Hit |
| George Springer | — | vs Shane Baz | 57.3% | Hit |
| Alejandro Kirk | — | vs Shane Baz | 56.5% | Hit |
| Riley Greene | — | vs DJ Herz | 56.2% | No Hit |
| Walker Jenkins | — | vs Blade Tidwell | 56.1% | Hit |
| Brooks Lee | — | vs Blade Tidwell | 55.6% | Hit |
| Eduardo Valencia | — | vs DJ Herz | 55.5% | Hit |
| Ryan Jeffers | — | vs Blade Tidwell | 54.9% | No Hit |
| Nathan Lukes | — | vs Shane Baz | 54.8% | Hit |
| Alan Roden | — | vs Blade Tidwell | 53.9% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Pete Alonso — 24.1% HR probability
- Gunnar Henderson — 18.4% HR probability
- Spencer Torkelson — 12.2% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zebby Matthews — proj 4.6, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Zebby Matthews — proj 4.6, recorded 9
- Trey Yesavage — proj 5.7, recorded 3
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Pete Alonso. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.
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