MLB Results — September 21, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 21, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Trey Yesavage 31.2% No Home Run

#2 Pete Alonso— · vs Trey Yesavage 24.1% Home Run

#3 Riley Greene— · vs DJ Herz 24.1% No Home Run

#4 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Shane Baz 24.1% No Home Run

#5 Samuel Basallo— · vs Trey Yesavage 18.5% No Home Run

#6 Gunnar Henderson— · vs Trey Yesavage 18.4% Home Run

#7 James Wood— · vs River Ryan 18.1% No Home Run

#8 Dylan Beavers— · vs Trey Yesavage 17.8% No Home Run

#9 Colton Cowser— · vs Trey Yesavage 17.6% No Home Run

#10 Daylen Lile— · vs River Ryan 17.1% No Home Run

#11 Christian Encarnacion-Strand— · vs Trey Yesavage 17.1% No Home Run

#12 Jeremiah Jackson— · vs Trey Yesavage 16.0% No Home Run

#13 Kody Clemens— · vs Blade Tidwell 16.0% No Home Run

#14 Abimelec Ortiz— · vs River Ryan 15.9% No Home Run

#15 Hao-Yu Lee— · vs DJ Herz 14.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

DJ Herzvs Detroit Tigers 5.8 4 -1.8

Trey Yesavagevs Baltimore Orioles 5.7 3 -2.7

River Ryanvs Washington Nationals 5.6 3 -2.6

Blade Tidwellvs Minnesota Twins 4.9 4 -0.9On target

Zebby Matthewsvs San Francisco Giants 4.6 9 +4.4

Shane Bazvs Toronto Blue Jays 4.3 2 -2.3

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Gunnar Henderson— · vs Trey Yesavage 59.6% Hit

Brett Bateman— · vs Shane Baz 59.1% No Hit

Pete Alonso— · vs Trey Yesavage 58.4% Hit

Luke Keaschall— · vs Blade Tidwell 58.0% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs River Ryan 57.9% No Hit

James Wood— · vs River Ryan 57.5% Hit

George Springer— · vs Shane Baz 57.3% Hit

Alejandro Kirk— · vs Shane Baz 56.5% Hit

Riley Greene— · vs DJ Herz 56.2% No Hit

Walker Jenkins— · vs Blade Tidwell 56.1% Hit

Brooks Lee— · vs Blade Tidwell 55.6% Hit

Eduardo Valencia— · vs DJ Herz 55.5% Hit

Ryan Jeffers— · vs Blade Tidwell 54.9% No Hit

Nathan Lukes— · vs Shane Baz 54.8% Hit

Alan Roden— · vs Blade Tidwell 53.9% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Pete Alonso — 24.1% HR probability
Gunnar Henderson — 18.4% HR probability
Spencer Torkelson — 12.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Zebby Matthews — proj 4.6, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Zebby Matthews — proj 4.6, recorded 9
Trey Yesavage — proj 5.7, recorded 3

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Pete Alonso. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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