MLB Model Results — September 19, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | San Francisco Giants | 7.8 | 3 | -4.8 | |
| Joe Ryan | Los Angeles Angels | 6.2 | 5 | -1.2 | |
| Cam Schlittler | Arizona Diamondbacks | 6.1 | 6 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Reid Detmers | Minnesota Twins | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Christian Scott | Philadelphia Phillies | 6.0 | 7 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Noah Cameron | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Trevor Rogers | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 | |
| Robert Gasser | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| Jackson Jobe | Chicago White Sox | 5.6 | 9 | +3.4 | |
| José Soriano | Texas Rangers | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| Sean Burke | Detroit Tigers | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Brandon Pfaadt | New York Yankees | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Eury Pérez | San Diego Padres | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Matthew Boyd | Cincinnati Reds | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Christian Scott — proj 6.0, recorded 7
- Noah Cameron — proj 5.8, recorded 6
- Trevor Rogers — proj 5.7, recorded 10
Biggest Surprises
- Brayan Bello — proj 3.7, recorded 11
- Tarik Skubal — proj 7.8, recorded 3
See today's slate the same way
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