MLB Results — September 19, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 19, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Robert Gasser 31.9% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Bryce Miller 31.6% No Home Run

#3 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Christian Scott 30.9% No Home Run

#4 Zach Neto— · vs Joe Ryan 30.4% No Home Run

#5 Riley Greene— · vs Sean Burke 27.2% No Home Run

#6 Cal Raleigh— · vs Jose Quintana 27.0% Home Run

#7 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Cal Quantrill 26.6% No Home Run

#8 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Grant Holmes 26.6% No Home Run

#9 Francisco Lindor— · vs Andrew Painter 26.2% No Home Run

#10 Pete Crow-Armstrong— · vs Nick Lodolo 25.2% No Home Run

#11 Royce Lewis— · vs Reid Detmers 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Jac Caglianone— · vs Bubba Chandler 24.1% No Home Run

#13 Pete Alonso— · vs Robert Gasser 24.1% No Home Run

#14 Oneil Cruz— · vs Noah Cameron 24.0% No Home Run

#15 Brandon Lowe— · vs Noah Cameron 23.9% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Tarik Skubalvs San Francisco Giants 7.8 3 -4.8

Joe Ryanvs Los Angeles Angels 6.2 5 -1.2

Cam Schlittlervs Arizona Diamondbacks 6.1 6 -0.1On target

Reid Detmersvs Minnesota Twins 6.1 5 -1.1

Christian Scottvs Philadelphia Phillies 6.0 7 +1.0On target

Noah Cameronvs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.8 6 +0.2On target

Trevor Rogersvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.7 10 +4.3

Andrew Alvarezvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 8 +2.3

Robert Gasservs Baltimore Orioles 5.7 2 -3.7

Jackson Jobevs Chicago White Sox 5.6 9 +3.4

José Sorianovs Texas Rangers 5.5 8 +2.5

Sean Burkevs Detroit Tigers 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Brandon Pfaadtvs New York Yankees 5.5 3 -2.5

Eury Pérezvs San Diego Padres 5.4 4 -1.4

Matthew Boydvs Cincinnati Reds 5.3 4 -1.3

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Grant Holmes 64.5% Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Jose Quintana 64.1% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Eury Pérez 62.4% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Brandon Pfaadt 62.3% No Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Matthew Boyd 62.3% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Nick Lodolo 62.3% Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Jose Quintana 61.6% No Hit

Kyle Stowers— · vs Casey Mize 61.4% Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Noah Cameron 61.4% Hit

Dominic Canzone— · vs Jose Quintana 61.2% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Bryce Miller 61.0% Hit

Julio Rodríguez— · vs Jose Quintana 61.0% Hit

Freddie Freeman— · vs Yunior Marte 61.0% No Hit

J.P. Crawford— · vs Jose Quintana 60.9% No Hit

CJ Abrams— · vs Michael McGreevy 60.7% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Cal Raleigh — 27.0% HR probability
Brandon Lowe — 23.9% HR probability
Carter Jensen — 23.2% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Christian Scott — proj 6.0, recorded 7
Noah Cameron — proj 5.8, recorded 6
Trevor Rogers — proj 5.7, recorded 10

Biggest Surprises

Brayan Bello — proj 3.7, recorded 11
Tarik Skubal — proj 7.8, recorded 3

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Cal Raleigh. Model HR probability 27.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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