Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — September 10, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
5
Games covered
143
Hitters evaluated
10
Pitchers evaluated
September 10, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Max Fried | 30.8% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cristian Javier | 29.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Jacob deGrom | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Andrew Benintendi | — | vs Jared Jones | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Zack Wheeler | 24.6% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Jared Jones | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Joc Pederson | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #8 | Michael Harris II | — | vs Nick Martinez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Dominic Canzone | Seattle Mariners | vs Jacob deGrom | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Munetaka Murakami | — | vs Jared Jones | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Austin Riley | — | vs Nick Martinez | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Matt Olson | — | vs Nick Martinez | 23.8% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Corey Seager | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 19.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Justin Foscue | — | vs Logan Gilbert | 18.8% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | — | vs Nick Martinez | 18.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | Houston Astros | 7.1 | 9 | +1.9 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Seattle Mariners | 6.9 | 12 | +5.1 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Texas Rangers | 6.3 | 11 | +4.7 | |
| Jared Jones | Chicago White Sox | 5.8 | 8 | +2.2 | |
| Max Fried | Colorado Rockies | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Cristian Javier | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Ryan Feltner | New York Yankees | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 | |
| Nick Martinez | Atlanta Braves | 3.9 | 3 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Martín Pérez | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.2 | 4 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Hagen Smith | Pittsburgh Pirates | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cristian Javier | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Zack Wheeler | 60.0% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Ryan Feltner | 59.7% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cristian Javier | 59.7% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Martín Pérez | 59.6% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Cristian Javier | 59.6% | No Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Martín Pérez | 59.2% | No Hit |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Hagen Smith | 58.8% | Hit |
| Luis García Jr. | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 58.6% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Hagen Smith | 58.4% | No Hit |
| Luis Arraez | — | vs Cristian Javier | 58.2% | Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Cristian Javier | 58.1% | No Hit |
| Drake Baldwin | — | vs Nick Martinez | 57.6% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Max Fried | 57.4% | No Hit |
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 57.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Joc Pederson — 24.1% HR probability
- Oneil Cruz — 18.5% HR probability
- Cam Smith — 18.5% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 7.1, recorded 9
- Jacob deGrom — proj 6.9, recorded 12
- Logan Gilbert — proj 6.3, recorded 11
Biggest Surprises
- Jacob deGrom — proj 6.9, recorded 12
- Logan Gilbert — proj 6.3, recorded 11
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Joc Pederson. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.
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