MLB Results — September 10, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 10, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Max Fried 30.8% No Home Run

#2 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Cristian Javier 29.2% No Home Run

#3 Cal Raleigh— · vs Jacob deGrom 25.4% No Home Run

#4 Andrew Benintendi— · vs Jared Jones 25.2% No Home Run

#5 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Zack Wheeler 24.6% No Home Run

#6 Colson Montgomery— · vs Jared Jones 24.3% No Home Run

#7 Joc Pederson— · vs Logan Gilbert 24.1% Home Run

#8 Michael Harris II— · vs Nick Martinez 23.9% No Home Run

#9 Dominic Canzone— · vs Jacob deGrom 23.8% No Home Run

#10 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Jared Jones 23.8% No Home Run

#11 Austin Riley— · vs Nick Martinez 23.8% No Home Run

#12 Matt Olson— · vs Nick Martinez 23.8% No Home Run

#13 Corey Seager— · vs Logan Gilbert 19.3% No Home Run

#14 Justin Foscue— · vs Logan Gilbert 18.8% No Home Run

#15 Ronald Acuña Jr.— · vs Nick Martinez 18.6% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Zack Wheelervs Houston Astros 7.1 9 +1.9

Jacob deGromvs Seattle Mariners 6.9 12 +5.1

Logan Gilbertvs Texas Rangers 6.3 11 +4.7

Jared Jonesvs Chicago White Sox 5.8 8 +2.2

Max Friedvs Colorado Rockies 5.5 7 +1.5

Cristian Javiervs Philadelphia Phillies 5.0 5 -0.0On target

Ryan Feltnervs New York Yankees 4.1 2 -2.1

Nick Martinezvs Atlanta Braves 3.9 3 -0.9On target

Martín Pérezvs Tampa Bay Rays 3.2 4 +0.8On target

Hagen Smithvs Pittsburgh Pirates 2.2 3 +0.8On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Bryce Harper— · vs Cristian Javier 61.1% No Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Zack Wheeler 60.0% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Ryan Feltner 59.7% Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Cristian Javier 59.7% No Hit

Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays · vs Martín Pérez 59.6% Hit

Brandon Marsh— · vs Cristian Javier 59.6% No Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Martín Pérez 59.2% No Hit

Oneil Cruz— · vs Hagen Smith 58.8% Hit

Luis García Jr.— · vs Ryan Feltner 58.6% Hit

Bryan Reynolds— · vs Hagen Smith 58.4% No Hit

Luis Arraez— · vs Cristian Javier 58.2% Hit

Trea Turner— · vs Cristian Javier 58.1% No Hit

Drake Baldwin— · vs Nick Martinez 57.6% Hit

TJ Rumfield— · vs Max Fried 57.4% No Hit

Jose Altuve— · vs Zack Wheeler 57.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Joc Pederson — 24.1% HR probability
Oneil Cruz — 18.5% HR probability
Cam Smith — 18.5% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Zack Wheeler — proj 7.1, recorded 9
Jacob deGrom — proj 6.9, recorded 12
Logan Gilbert — proj 6.3, recorded 11

Biggest Surprises

Jacob deGrom — proj 6.9, recorded 12
Logan Gilbert — proj 6.3, recorded 11

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Joc Pederson. Model HR probability 24.1% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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