MLB Model Results — September 11, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | Philadelphia Phillies | 8.0 | 6 | -2.0 | |
| Nolan McLean | New York Yankees | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| Aaron Nola | Atlanta Braves | 6.0 | 3 | -3.0 | |
| Taj Bradley | Cleveland Guardians | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Shota Imanaga | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| Parker Messick | Minnesota Twins | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Mason Adams | Detroit Tigers | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Carlos Rodón | New York Mets | 5.6 | 8 | +2.4 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | Chicago White Sox | 5.6 | 2 | -3.6 | |
| Yusei Kikuchi | Washington Nationals | 5.5 | 5 | -0.5 | On Target |
| George Kirby | Athletics | 5.4 | 5 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Sonny Gray | Kansas City Royals | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Cade Cavalli | Los Angeles Angels | 4.8 | 9 | +4.2 | |
| Dustin May | Cincinnati Reds | 4.6 | 6 | +1.4 | |
| MacKenzie Gore | Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.6 | 2 | -2.6 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.9, recorded 6
- Carlos Rodón — proj 5.6, recorded 8
- Cade Cavalli — proj 4.8, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Cade Cavalli — proj 4.8, recorded 9
- Matthew Liberatore — proj 5.6, recorded 2
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
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