MLB Results — September 11, 2026

MLB Model Results — September 11, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Coby Mayo— · vs Max Scherzer 31.0% Home Run

#2 Bo Naylor— · vs Andrew Abbott 29.8% No Home Run

#3 Kazuma Okamoto— · vs Chris Bassitt 26.6% Home Run

#4 Joc Pederson— · vs Merrill Kelly 26.6% No Home Run

#5 Cal Raleigh— · vs Jeffrey Springs 26.2% No Home Run

#6 Heriberto Hernández— · vs Unknown Pitcher 24.9% No Home Run

#7 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Chris Sale 24.4% No Home Run

#8 Hunter Goodman— · vs Framber Valdez 24.2% No Home Run

#9 Colson Montgomery— · vs Matthew Liberatore 24.2% No Home Run

#10 Oneil Cruz— · vs Shota Imanaga 24.1% No Home Run

#11 Austin Riley— · vs Aaron Nola 24.1% Home Run

#12 Rafael Devers— · vs Robbie Ray 24.0% Home Run

#13 Munetaka Murakami— · vs Matthew Liberatore 24.0% No Home Run

#14 Justin Foscue— · vs Merrill Kelly 23.9% No Home Run

#15 Zach Neto— · vs Cade Cavalli 23.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chris Salevs Philadelphia Phillies 8.0 6 -2.0

Nolan McLeanvs New York Yankees 6.8 5 -1.8

Aaron Nolavs Atlanta Braves 6.0 3 -3.0

Taj Bradleyvs Cleveland Guardians 5.9 6 +0.1On target

Shota Imanagavs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.9 4 -1.9

Parker Messickvs Minnesota Twins 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Mason Adamsvs Detroit Tigers 5.8 5 -0.8On target

Carlos Rodónvs New York Mets 5.6 8 +2.4

Matthew Liberatorevs Chicago White Sox 5.6 2 -3.6

Yusei Kikuchivs Washington Nationals 5.5 5 -0.5On target

George Kirbyvs Athletics 5.4 5 -0.4On target

Sonny Grayvs Kansas City Royals 5.3 5 -0.3On target

Cade Cavallivs Los Angeles Angels 4.8 9 +4.2

Dustin Mayvs Cincinnati Reds 4.6 6 +1.4

MacKenzie Gorevs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 2 -2.6

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Aaron Judge— · vs Nolan McLean 62.9% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Anthony Molina 62.8% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Robbie Ray 62.1% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Dustin May 61.7% No Hit

Randy Arozarena— · vs Jeffrey Springs 61.6% Hit

Andrew VaughnMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andrew Abbott 61.1% Hit

Jackson ChourioMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andrew Abbott 60.8% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Carlos Rodón 60.8% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Nolan McLean 60.3% Hit

Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewers · vs Andrew Abbott 60.3% Hit

Zack Gelof— · vs George Kirby 60.2% Hit

Wilyer Abreu— · vs Seth Lugo 60.2% Hit

Iván Herrera— · vs Anthony Kay 60.1% No Hit

Josh Naylor— · vs Jeffrey Springs 60.1% Hit

Randal Grichuk— · vs Matthew Liberatore 60.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Coby Mayo — 31.0% HR probability
Kazuma Okamoto — 26.6% HR probability
Austin Riley — 24.1% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Taj Bradley — proj 5.9, recorded 6
Carlos Rodón — proj 5.6, recorded 8
Cade Cavalli — proj 4.8, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Cade Cavalli — proj 4.8, recorded 9
Matthew Liberatore — proj 5.6, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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