MLB Results — July 21, 2026

MLB Model Results — July 21, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Hunter Goodman— · vs Miles Mikolas 31.4% Home Run

#2 Coby Mayo— · vs Ranger Suarez 30.8% No Home Run

#3 Brandon Lowe— · vs Will Warren 30.4% No Home Run

#4 Hunter Goodman— · vs Carson Palmquist 28.6% Home Run

#5 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Tyler Phillips 28.0% No Home Run

#6 James Wood— · vs Michael Lorenzen 27.2% No Home Run

#7 Zach Neto— · vs Matthew Liberatore 27.1% No Home Run

#8 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Zack Wheeler 26.1% No Home Run

#9 Luke Raley— · vs Chase Burns 25.4% No Home Run

#10 Coby Mayo— · vs Eduardo Rivera 25.2% No Home Run

#11 Cal Raleigh— · vs Chase Burns 25.0% No Home Run

#12 Mickey Moniak— · vs Miles Mikolas 24.9% Home Run

#13 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Justin Wrobleski 24.4% No Home Run

#14 Jac Caglianone— · vs Tyler Mahle 24.3% No Home Run

#15 Luis García Jr.— · vs Michael Lorenzen 24.2% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Chase Burnsvs Seattle Mariners 7.1 6 -1.1

Zack Wheelervs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.8 9 +3.2

Parker Messickvs Minnesota Twins 5.3 6 +0.7On target

Drew Rasmussenvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.2 5 -0.2On target

Kevin Gausmanvs Tampa Bay Rays 5.2 1 -4.2

Zac Thorntonvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.1 2 -3.1

Brandon Sproatvs New York Mets 5.1 4 -1.1

Kohl Drakevs Athletics 5.1 5 -0.1On target

Luis Castillovs Cincinnati Reds 4.9 3 -1.9

Matthew Liberatorevs Los Angeles Angels 4.9 7 +2.1

Kumar Rockervs Chicago White Sox 4.9 6 +1.1

Will Warrenvs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.9 1 -3.9

Tyler Mahlevs Kansas City Royals 4.7 4 -0.7On target

Tatsuya Imaivs Miami Marlins 4.7 8 +3.3

Justin Wrobleskivs Philadelphia Phillies 4.5 7 +2.5

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

CJ Abrams— · vs Michael Lorenzen 62.5% Hit

Yordan Alvarez— · vs Tyler Phillips 62.5% Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Reynaldo López 62.1% Hit

James Wood— · vs Michael Lorenzen 62.1% Hit

Shohei Ohtani— · vs Zack Wheeler 62.0% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Brandon Sproat 61.6% No Hit

Luis García Jr.— · vs Michael Lorenzen 61.4% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Luinder Avila 61.3% No Hit

Seiya Suzuki— · vs Framber Valdez 61.2% No Hit

Kyle Schwarber— · vs Justin Wrobleski 61.1% No Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Justin Wrobleski 61.0% Hit

Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Kohl Drake 60.5% Hit

José Tena— · vs Michael Lorenzen 60.3% Hit

Elly De La Cruz— · vs Luis Castillo 60.3% Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Parker Messick 60.2% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Hunter Goodman — 31.4% HR probability
Hunter Goodman — 28.6% HR probability
Mickey Moniak — 24.9% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Zack Wheeler — proj 5.8, recorded 9
Parker Messick — proj 5.3, recorded 6
Matthew Liberatore — proj 4.9, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Kevin Gausman — proj 5.2, recorded 1
Will Warren — proj 4.9, recorded 1

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 31.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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