Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 21, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
423
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
July 21, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Miles Mikolas | 31.4% | Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Carson Palmquist | 28.6% | Home Run |
| #3 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Tyler Phillips | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Michael Lorenzen | 27.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Zach Neto | — | vs Matthew Liberatore | 27.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Zack Wheeler | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Luke Raley | Seattle Mariners | vs Chase Burns | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Cal Raleigh | Seattle Mariners | vs Chase Burns | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Miles Mikolas | 24.9% | Home Run |
| #10 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Justin Wrobleski | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Jac Caglianone | — | vs Tyler Mahle | 24.3% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Heliot Ramos | — | vs Luinder Avila | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Luis García Jr. | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Parker Messick | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Casey Schmitt | — | vs Luinder Avila | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | Seattle Mariners | 7.1 | 6 | -1.1 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.8 | 9 | +3.2 | |
| Parker Messick | Minnesota Twins | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Drew Rasmussen | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Kevin Gausman | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.2 | 1 | -4.2 | |
| Brandon Sproat | New York Mets | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Kohl Drake | Athletics | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Zac Thornton | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Luis Castillo | Cincinnati Reds | 4.9 | 3 | -1.9 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | Los Angeles Angels | 4.9 | 7 | +2.1 | |
| Kumar Rocker | Chicago White Sox | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| Tyler Mahle | Kansas City Royals | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Tatsuya Imai | Miami Marlins | 4.7 | 8 | +3.3 | |
| Justin Wrobleski | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 | |
| Walbert Ureña | St. Louis Cardinals | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Tyler Phillips | 62.5% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Michael Lorenzen | 62.5% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Reynaldo López | 62.1% | Hit |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Michael Lorenzen | 62.1% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Zack Wheeler | 62.0% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Brandon Sproat | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Luis García Jr. | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.4% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Luinder Avila | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Framber Valdez | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Justin Wrobleski | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Justin Wrobleski | 61.0% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Kohl Drake | 60.5% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Luis Castillo | 60.3% | Hit |
| José Tena | Washington Nationals | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.3% | Hit |
| Curtis Mead | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.2% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 31.4% HR probability
- Hunter Goodman — 28.6% HR probability
- Mickey Moniak — 24.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 5.8, recorded 9
- Parker Messick — proj 5.3, recorded 6
- Matthew Liberatore — proj 4.9, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Kevin Gausman — proj 5.2, recorded 1
- Framber Valdez — proj 4.4, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 31.4% — result: Home Run.
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