Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 11, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
8
Games covered
208
Hitters evaluated
16
Pitchers evaluated
June 11, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Keider Montero | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Edward Cabrera | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Mitch Keller | 17.5% | Home Run |
| #4 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Martín Pérez | 16.7% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Hunter Dobbins | 16.4% | Home Run |
| #6 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Bryan Woo | 16.4% | Home Run |
| #7 | Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Ryan Feltner | 16.3% | Home Run |
| #8 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Justin Wrobleski | 16.2% | Home Run |
| #9 | Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Zebby Matthews | 15.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Max Muncy | — | vs Mitch Keller | 15.8% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Ian Happ | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 15.7% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Marcell Ozuna | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 14.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Austin Riley | — | vs Unknown Pitcher | 14.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Jake Burger | — | vs Michael Wacha | 11.3% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Bryan Woo | 10.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | Detroit Tigers | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Michael Wacha | Texas Rangers | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| Kyle Bradish | Seattle Mariners | 5.7 | 5 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Bryan Woo | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Christian Scott | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Keider Montero | Minnesota Twins | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 | On Target |
| Hunter Dobbins | New York Mets | 4.7 | 5 | +0.3 | On Target |
| Justin Wrobleski | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.6 | 1 | -3.6 | |
| Mitch Keller | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.6 | 3 | -1.6 | |
| Kumar Rocker | Kansas City Royals | 4.5 | 3 | -1.5 | |
| Edward Cabrera | Colorado Rockies | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 | On Target |
| Tyler Phillips | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.9 | 5 | +1.1 | |
| Merrill Kelly | Miami Marlins | 3.8 | 1 | -2.8 | |
| Ryan Feltner | Chicago Cubs | 3.6 | 3 | -0.6 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Keider Montero | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Edward Cabrera | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Justin Wrobleski | 65.0% | Hit |
| Ian Happ | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 65.0% | Hit |
| Max Muncy | — | vs Mitch Keller | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Carson Kelly | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 65.0% | Hit |
| Michael Busch | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 65.0% | Hit |
| Dansby Swanson | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Mitch Keller | 65.0% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Christian Scott | 65.0% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Justin Wrobleski | 64.7% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Mitch Keller | 64.6% | Hit |
| Jake Burger | — | vs Michael Wacha | 63.9% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Ryan Feltner | 62.7% | Hit |
| Marcell Ozuna | — | vs Justin Wrobleski | 62.7% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Shohei Ohtani — 17.5% HR probability
- Juan Soto — 16.4% HR probability
- Pete Alonso — 16.4% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Christian Scott — proj 5.2, recorded 6
- Hunter Dobbins — proj 4.7, recorded 5
- Edward Cabrera — proj 4.3, recorded 5
Biggest Surprises
- Michael Wacha — proj 6.1, recorded 2
- Justin Wrobleski — proj 4.6, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Shohei Ohtani. Model HR probability 17.5% — result: Home Run.
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