MLB Results — June 11, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 11, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

208

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

June 11, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	vs Keider Montero	18.4%	No Home Run
#2	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Edward Cabrera	18.4%	No Home Run
#3	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Mitch Keller	17.5%	Home Run
#4	Juan Soto	New York Mets	vs Hunter Dobbins	16.4%	Home Run
#5	Pete Alonso	Baltimore Orioles	vs Bryan Woo	16.4%	Home Run
#6	Seiya Suzuki	—	vs Ryan Feltner	16.3%	Home Run
#7	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Justin Wrobleski	16.2%	Home Run
#8	Max Muncy	—	vs Mitch Keller	15.8%	No Home Run
#9	Kerry Carpenter	—	vs Zebby Matthews	15.8%	No Home Run
#10	Ian Happ	—	vs Ryan Feltner	15.7%	No Home Run
#11	Marcell Ozuna	—	vs Justin Wrobleski	14.9%	No Home Run
#12	Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	vs Michael Wacha	11.3%	No Home Run
#13	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Bryan Woo	10.6%	No Home Run
#14	Corey Seager	—	vs Michael Wacha	9.4%	Home Run
#15	Taylor Ward	—	vs Bryan Woo	9.1%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Zebby Matthews	Detroit Tigers	6.2	4	-2.2
Michael Wacha	Texas Rangers	6.1	2	-4.1
Kyle Bradish	Seattle Mariners	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Bryan Woo	Baltimore Orioles	5.7	4	-1.7
Christian Scott	St. Louis Cardinals	5.2	6	+0.8	On Target
Keider Montero	Minnesota Twins	4.7	4	-0.7	On Target
Hunter Dobbins	New York Mets	4.7	5	+0.3	On Target
Justin Wrobleski	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.6	1	-3.6
Mitch Keller	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.6	3	-1.6
Kumar Rocker	Kansas City Royals	4.5	3	-1.5
Edward Cabrera	Colorado Rockies	4.3	5	+0.7	On Target
Tyler Phillips	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.9	5	+1.1
Merrill Kelly	Miami Marlins	3.8	1	-2.8
Ryan Feltner	Chicago Cubs	3.6	3	-0.6	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Byron Buxton	Minnesota Twins	vs Keider Montero	65.0%	No Hit
Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Edward Cabrera	65.0%	No Hit
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Justin Wrobleski	65.0%	Hit
Ian Happ	—	vs Ryan Feltner	65.0%	Hit
Max Muncy	—	vs Mitch Keller	65.0%	No Hit
Carson Kelly	—	vs Ryan Feltner	65.0%	Hit
Michael Busch	—	vs Ryan Feltner	65.0%	Hit
Dansby Swanson	—	vs Ryan Feltner	65.0%	No Hit
Freddie Freeman	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Mitch Keller	65.0%	Hit
Alec Burleson	St. Louis Cardinals	vs Christian Scott	65.0%	Hit
Bryan Reynolds	—	vs Justin Wrobleski	64.7%	Hit
Andy Pages	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Mitch Keller	64.6%	Hit
Jake Burger	Texas Rangers	vs Michael Wacha	63.9%	Hit
Seiya Suzuki	—	vs Ryan Feltner	62.7%	Hit
Marcell Ozuna	—	vs Justin Wrobleski	62.7%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Shohei Ohtani. Model HR probability 17.5% — result: Home Run.

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