MLB Results

MLB Model Results — June 10, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 10, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
391
Hitters evaluated
29
Pitchers evaluated
June 10, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Framber Valdez18.4%Home Run
#2Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Shota Imanaga18.4%No Home Run
#3Yordan Alvarez—vs Reid Detmers18.3%No Home Run
#4Shea Langeliers—vs Brandon Sproat17.9%No Home Run
#5Nick Kurtz—vs Brandon Sproat17.9%No Home Run
#6Bryce Harper—vs Max Scherzer17.6%Home Run
#7Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Jared Jones17.5%Home Run
#8Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Andre Pallante17.5%No Home Run
#9Pete AlonsoBaltimore Oriolesvs George Kirby17.5%Home Run
#10Kyle Schwarber—vs Max Scherzer17.5%Home Run
#11Christian Walker—vs Reid Detmers17.2%No Home Run
#12Tyler Soderstrom—vs Brandon Sproat17.1%No Home Run
#13Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Shohei Ohtani16.5%No Home Run
#14Seiya SuzukiChicago Cubsvs Michael Lorenzen16.3%No Home Run
#15Junior Caminero—vs Jake Bennett15.7%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Shohei OhtaniPittsburgh Pirates7.46-1.4
Chris SaleChicago White Sox7.36-1.3
Reid DetmersHouston Astros7.29+1.8
Parker MessickNew York Yankees6.74-2.7
Drew RasmussenBoston Red Sox6.213+6.8
Jesús LuzardoToronto Blue Jays5.88+2.2
Foster GriffinSan Francisco Giants5.85-0.8On Target
Michael KingCincinnati Reds5.73-2.7
Carlos RodónCleveland Guardians5.77+1.3
Seth LugoTexas Rangers5.72-3.7
MacKenzie GoreKansas City Royals5.56+0.5On Target
Shota ImanagaColorado Rockies5.57+1.5
Ryne NelsonMiami Marlins5.52-3.5
George KirbyBaltimore Orioles5.510+4.5
Peter LambertLos Angeles Angels5.36+0.7On Target
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Framber Valdez65.0%Hit
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Shota Imanaga65.0%Hit
Christian Walker—vs Reid Detmers65.0%Hit
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Shohei Ohtani65.0%Hit
Dansby SwansonChicago Cubsvs Michael Lorenzen65.0%No Hit
Ian HappChicago Cubsvs Michael Lorenzen65.0%Hit
Michael BuschChicago Cubsvs Michael Lorenzen65.0%Hit
Michael ConfortoChicago Cubsvs Michael Lorenzen65.0%No Hit
Andrés Chaparro—vs Robbie Ray65.0%No Hit
Shea Langeliers—vs Brandon Sproat65.0%Hit
Junior Caminero—vs Jake Bennett65.0%Hit
Austin Martin—vs Framber Valdez65.0%Hit
Dane Myers—vs Michael King65.0%Hit
Bryce Harper—vs Max Scherzer64.0%Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.—vs Brady Singer64.0%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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