MLB Results

MLB Model Results — May 30, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersAnalytics LabHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
← May 29, 2026Back to Results ArchiveMay 31, 2026 →
Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — May 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
390
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
May 30, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Rafael DeversSan Francisco Giantsvs Ryan Feltner18.4%No Home Run
#2Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Adrian Houser18.4%No Home Run
#3Aaron Judge—vs J.T. Ginn18.4%No Home Run
#4Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Mitch Keller18.4%No Home Run
#5Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Roki Sasaki18.4%No Home Run
#6Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Tyler Phillips18.4%No Home Run
#7Pete Alonso—vs Trey Yesavage18.3%No Home Run
#8Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Jesús Luzardo18.0%No Home Run
#9Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Roki Sasaki17.8%No Home Run
#10Christian Walker—vs Brandon Sproat17.6%Home Run
#11Colson MontgomeryChicago White Soxvs Framber Valdez17.2%Home Run
#12Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Brandon Sproat17.0%No Home Run
#13Tyler SoderstromAthleticsvs Ryan Weathers16.6%Home Run
#14Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Bailey Ober16.5%No Home Run
#15Austin RileyAtlanta Bravesvs Brady Singer16.3%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Reid DetmersTampa Bay Rays6.97+0.1On Target
Parker MessickBoston Red Sox6.84-2.8
Ryan WeathersAthletics6.810+3.2
Bryan WooArizona Diamondbacks6.29+2.8
Drew RasmussenLos Angeles Angels6.24-2.2
Martín PérezCincinnati Reds5.92-3.9
Foster GriffinSan Diego Padres5.95-0.9On Target
Michael KingWashington Nationals5.82-3.8
Trey YesavageBaltimore Orioles5.74-1.7
Ben BrownSt. Louis Cardinals5.76+0.3On Target
J.T. GinnNew York Yankees5.64-1.6
Seth LugoTexas Rangers5.56+0.5On Target
Jesús LuzardoLos Angeles Dodgers5.56+0.5On Target
Roki SasakiPhiladelphia Phillies5.47+1.6
Peter LambertMilwaukee Brewers5.43-2.4
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Rafael DeversSan Francisco Giantsvs Ryan Feltner66.0%No Hit
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Adrian Houser66.0%Hit
Aaron Judge—vs J.T. Ginn66.0%No Hit
Colson MontgomeryChicago White Soxvs Framber Valdez66.0%Hit
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Bailey Ober66.0%Hit
Austin RileyAtlanta Bravesvs Brady Singer66.0%No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Foster Griffin66.0%Hit
Byron BuxtonMinnesota Twinsvs Mitch Keller66.0%Hit
Casey Schmitt—vs Ryan Feltner66.0%Hit
Bobby Witt Jr.—vs Kumar Rocker66.0%Hit
Ian Happ—vs Kyle Leahy66.0%Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Roki Sasaki66.0%Hit
Ben RiceNew York Yankeesvs J.T. Ginn66.0%Hit
Alex Bregman—vs Kyle Leahy66.0%Hit
Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Tyler Phillips66.0%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Christian Walker. Model HR probability 17.6% — result: Home Run.
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