Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — May 30, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
390
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
May 30, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Rafael Devers | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Adrian Houser | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Aaron Judge | — | vs J.T. Ginn | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Mitch Keller | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Roki Sasaki | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Tyler Phillips | 18.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Trey Yesavage | 18.3% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Jesús Luzardo | 18.0% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Roki Sasaki | 17.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Christian Walker | Houston Astros | vs Brandon Sproat | 17.6% | Home Run |
| #11 | Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Framber Valdez | 17.2% | Home Run |
| #12 | Yordan Alvarez | — | vs Brandon Sproat | 17.0% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Tyler Soderstrom | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 16.6% | Home Run |
| #14 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Bailey Ober | 16.5% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Austin Riley | — | vs Brady Singer | 16.3% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Detmers | Tampa Bay Rays | 6.9 | 7 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Parker Messick | Boston Red Sox | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Athletics | 6.8 | 10 | +3.2 | |
| Bryan Woo | Arizona Diamondbacks | 6.2 | 9 | +2.8 | |
| Drew Rasmussen | Los Angeles Angels | 6.2 | 4 | -2.2 | |
| Martín Pérez | Cincinnati Reds | 5.9 | 2 | -3.9 | |
| Foster Griffin | San Diego Padres | 5.9 | 5 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Michael King | Washington Nationals | 5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | |
| Trey Yesavage | Baltimore Orioles | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Ben Brown | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 6 | +0.3 | On Target |
| J.T. Ginn | New York Yankees | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Seth Lugo | Texas Rangers | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Jesús Luzardo | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Roki Sasaki | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| Peter Lambert | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.4 | 3 | -2.4 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers | — | vs Ryan Feltner | 66.0% | No Hit |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Adrian Houser | 66.0% | Hit |
| Aaron Judge | — | vs J.T. Ginn | 66.0% | No Hit |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | vs Framber Valdez | 66.0% | Hit |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Bailey Ober | 66.0% | Hit |
| Austin Riley | — | vs Brady Singer | 66.0% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Foster Griffin | 66.0% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Mitch Keller | 66.0% | Hit |
| Casey Schmitt | San Francisco Giants | vs Ryan Feltner | 66.0% | Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Kumar Rocker | 66.0% | Hit |
| Ian Happ | Chicago Cubs | vs Kyle Leahy | 66.0% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Roki Sasaki | 66.0% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | — | vs J.T. Ginn | 66.0% | Hit |
| Alex Bregman | Chicago Cubs | vs Kyle Leahy | 66.0% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Tyler Phillips | 66.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Christian Walker — 17.6% HR probability
- Colson Montgomery — 17.2% HR probability
- Tyler Soderstrom — 16.6% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Reid Detmers — proj 6.9, recorded 7
- Ryan Weathers — proj 6.8, recorded 10
- Bryan Woo — proj 6.2, recorded 9
Biggest Surprises
- Martín Pérez — proj 5.9, recorded 2
- Michael King — proj 5.8, recorded 2
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Christian Walker. Model HR probability 17.6% — result: Home Run.
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