MLB Results — May 30, 2026

MLB Model Results — May 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Rafael Devers— · vs Ryan Feltner 18.4% No Home Run

#2 Hunter Goodman— · vs Adrian Houser 18.4% No Home Run

#3 Aaron Judge— · vs J.T. Ginn 18.4% No Home Run

#4 Byron Buxton— · vs Mitch Keller 18.4% No Home Run

#5 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Roki Sasaki 18.4% No Home Run

#6 Juan Soto— · vs Tyler Phillips 18.4% No Home Run

#7 Pete Alonso— · vs Trey Yesavage 18.3% No Home Run

#8 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Jesús Luzardo 18.0% No Home Run

#9 Bryce Harper— · vs Roki Sasaki 17.8% No Home Run

#10 Christian Walker— · vs Brandon Sproat 17.6% Home Run

#11 Colson Montgomery— · vs Framber Valdez 17.2% Home Run

#12 Yordan Alvarez— · vs Brandon Sproat 17.0% No Home Run

#13 Tyler Soderstrom— · vs Ryan Weathers 16.6% Home Run

#14 Brandon Lowe— · vs Bailey Ober 16.5% No Home Run

#15 Austin Riley— · vs Brady Singer 16.3% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Reid Detmersvs Tampa Bay Rays 6.9 7 +0.1On target

Parker Messickvs Boston Red Sox 6.8 4 -2.8

Ryan Weathersvs Athletics 6.8 10 +3.2

Bryan Woovs Arizona Diamondbacks 6.2 9 +2.8

Drew Rasmussenvs Los Angeles Angels 6.2 4 -2.2

Martín Pérezvs Cincinnati Reds 5.9 2 -3.9

Foster Griffinvs San Diego Padres 5.9 5 -0.9On target

Michael Kingvs Washington Nationals 5.8 2 -3.8

Trey Yesavagevs Baltimore Orioles 5.7 4 -1.7

Ben Brownvs St. Louis Cardinals 5.7 6 +0.3On target

J.T. Ginnvs New York Yankees 5.6 4 -1.6

Seth Lugovs Texas Rangers 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Jesús Luzardovs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.5 6 +0.5On target

Roki Sasakivs Philadelphia Phillies 5.4 7 +1.6

Peter Lambertvs Milwaukee Brewers 5.4 3 -2.4

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rafael Devers— · vs Ryan Feltner 66.0% No Hit

Hunter Goodman— · vs Adrian Houser 66.0% Hit

Aaron Judge— · vs J.T. Ginn 66.0% No Hit

Colson Montgomery— · vs Framber Valdez 66.0% Hit

Brandon Lowe— · vs Bailey Ober 66.0% Hit

Austin Riley— · vs Brady Singer 66.0% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Foster Griffin 66.0% Hit

Byron Buxton— · vs Mitch Keller 66.0% Hit

Casey Schmitt— · vs Ryan Feltner 66.0% Hit

Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Kumar Rocker 66.0% Hit

Ian Happ— · vs Kyle Leahy 66.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Roki Sasaki 66.0% Hit

Ben Rice— · vs J.T. Ginn 66.0% Hit

Alex Bregman— · vs Kyle Leahy 66.0% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Tyler Phillips 66.0% Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Christian Walker — 17.6% HR probability
Colson Montgomery — 17.2% HR probability
Tyler Soderstrom — 16.6% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Reid Detmers — proj 6.9, recorded 7
Ryan Weathers — proj 6.8, recorded 10
Bryan Woo — proj 6.2, recorded 9

Biggest Surprises

Martín Pérez — proj 5.9, recorded 2
Michael King — proj 5.8, recorded 2

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Christian Walker. Model HR probability 17.6% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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