MLB Results — May 31, 2026

MLB Model Results — May 31, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Juan Soto— · vs Janson Junk 18.4% Home Run

#2 Rafael Devers— · vs Tanner Gordon 18.4% No Home Run

#3 Hunter Goodman— · vs Robbie Ray 18.4% No Home Run

#4 Aaron Judge— · vs Jacob Lopez 18.4% No Home Run

#5 Kyle Schwarber— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 18.4% No Home Run

#6 Shohei Ohtani— · vs Andrew Painter 18.4% No Home Run

#7 Bryce Harper— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 17.6% No Home Run

#8 Colson Montgomery— · vs Keider Montero 17.6% Home Run

#9 Mike Trout— · vs Shane McClanahan 17.0% No Home Run

#10 Brent Rooker— · vs Will Warren 16.8% Home Run

#11 Christian Walker— · vs Jacob Misiorowski 16.6% No Home Run

#12 Austin Riley— · vs Nick Lodolo 16.0% No Home Run

#13 Nick Kurtz— · vs Will Warren 16.0% No Home Run

#14 Oneil Cruz— · vs Zebby Matthews 16.0% No Home Run

#15 Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Jack Kochanowicz 15.9% No Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Braxton Ashcraftvs Minnesota Twins 7.7 11 +3.3

Nolan McLeanvs Miami Marlins 7.6 2 -5.6

Will Warrenvs Athletics 7.2 5 -2.2

Spencer Stridervs Cincinnati Reds 6.8 8 +1.2

Zebby Matthewsvs Pittsburgh Pirates 6.5 7 +0.5On target

Sean Burkevs Detroit Tigers 6.4 6 -0.4On target

Yoshinobu Yamamotovs Philadelphia Phillies 6.3 10 +3.7

Bryce Millervs Arizona Diamondbacks 6.2 6 -0.2On target

Jack Leitervs Kansas City Royals 6.0 10 +4.0

Tanner Gordonvs San Francisco Giants 5.8 2 -3.8

Kyle Bradishvs Toronto Blue Jays 5.8 4 -1.8

Jacob Misiorowskivs Houston Astros 5.8 8 +2.2

Shane McClanahanvs Los Angeles Angels 5.7 3 -2.7

Michael Wachavs Texas Rangers 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Tanner Bibeevs Boston Red Sox 5.5 5 -0.5On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Juan Soto— · vs Janson Junk 66.0% Hit

Rafael Devers— · vs Tanner Gordon 66.0% Hit

Hunter Goodman— · vs Robbie Ray 66.0% No Hit

Aaron Judge— · vs Jacob Lopez 66.0% Hit

Austin Riley— · vs Nick Lodolo 66.0% No Hit

Fernando Tatis Jr.— · vs Zack Littell 66.0% No Hit

Ben Rice— · vs Jacob Lopez 66.0% Hit

Anthony Volpe— · vs Jacob Lopez 66.0% Hit

Austin Wells— · vs Jacob Lopez 66.0% No Hit

Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays · vs Jack Kochanowicz 66.0% Hit

Bryce Harper— · vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto 66.0% No Hit

Casey Schmitt— · vs Tanner Gordon 66.0% Hit

Trent Grisham— · vs Jacob Lopez 66.0% Hit

Ezequiel Tovar— · vs Robbie Ray 66.0% Hit

Matt Olson— · vs Nick Lodolo 66.0% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Juan Soto — 18.4% HR probability
Colson Montgomery — 17.6% HR probability
Brent Rooker — 16.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Braxton Ashcraft — proj 7.7, recorded 11
Spencer Strider — proj 6.8, recorded 8
Zebby Matthews — proj 6.5, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

Nolan McLean — proj 7.6, recorded 2
Ranger Suarez — proj 5.2, recorded 10

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Juan Soto. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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