MLB Results

MLB Model Results — May 31, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — May 31, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
389
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
May 31, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Janson Junk18.4%Home Run
#2Rafael Devers—vs Tanner Gordon18.4%No Home Run
#3Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Robbie Ray18.4%No Home Run
#4Aaron Judge—vs Jacob Lopez18.4%No Home Run
#5Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Yoshinobu Yamamoto18.4%No Home Run
#6Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Andrew Painter18.4%No Home Run
#7Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Yoshinobu Yamamoto17.6%No Home Run
#8Colson MontgomeryChicago White Soxvs Keider Montero17.6%Home Run
#9Mike TroutLos Angeles Angelsvs Shane McClanahan17.0%No Home Run
#10Brent RookerAthleticsvs Will Warren16.8%Home Run
#11Christian WalkerHouston Astrosvs Jacob Misiorowski16.6%No Home Run
#12Austin Riley—vs Nick Lodolo16.0%No Home Run
#13Nick KurtzAthleticsvs Will Warren16.0%No Home Run
#14Oneil Cruz—vs Zebby Matthews16.0%No Home Run
#15Junior CamineroTampa Bay Raysvs Jack Kochanowicz15.9%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Braxton AshcraftMinnesota Twins7.711+3.3
Nolan McLeanMiami Marlins7.62-5.6
Will WarrenAthletics7.25-2.2
Spencer StriderCincinnati Reds6.88+1.2
Zebby MatthewsPittsburgh Pirates6.57+0.5On Target
Sean BurkeDetroit Tigers6.46-0.4On Target
Yoshinobu YamamotoPhiladelphia Phillies6.310+3.7
Bryce MillerArizona Diamondbacks6.26-0.2On Target
Jack LeiterKansas City Royals6.010+4.0
Tanner GordonSan Francisco Giants5.82-3.8
Kyle BradishToronto Blue Jays5.84-1.8
Jacob MisiorowskiHouston Astros5.88+2.2
Shane McClanahanLos Angeles Angels5.73-2.7
Michael WachaTexas Rangers5.55-0.5On Target
Tanner BibeeBoston Red Sox5.55-0.5On Target
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Juan SotoNew York Metsvs Janson Junk66.0%Hit
Rafael Devers—vs Tanner Gordon66.0%Hit
Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Robbie Ray66.0%No Hit
Aaron Judge—vs Jacob Lopez66.0%Hit
Austin Riley—vs Nick Lodolo66.0%No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Zack Littell66.0%No Hit
Ben Rice—vs Jacob Lopez66.0%Hit
Anthony Volpe—vs Jacob Lopez66.0%Hit
Austin Wells—vs Jacob Lopez66.0%No Hit
Junior CamineroTampa Bay Raysvs Jack Kochanowicz66.0%Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Yoshinobu Yamamoto66.0%No Hit
Casey SchmittSan Francisco Giantsvs Tanner Gordon66.0%Hit
Trent Grisham—vs Jacob Lopez66.0%Hit
Ezequiel Tovar—vs Robbie Ray66.0%Hit
Matt Olson—vs Nick Lodolo66.0%No Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

  • Juan Soto — 18.4% HR probability
  • Colson Montgomery — 17.6% HR probability
  • Brent Rooker — 16.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

  • Braxton Ashcraft — proj 7.7, recorded 11
  • Spencer Strider — proj 6.8, recorded 8
  • Zebby Matthews — proj 6.5, recorded 7

Biggest Surprises

  • Nolan McLean — proj 7.6, recorded 2
  • Ranger Suarez — proj 5.2, recorded 10
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Juan Soto. Model HR probability 18.4% — result: Home Run.
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