Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — April 2, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
4
Games covered
104
Hitters evaluated
8
Pitchers evaluated
April 2, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Cole Ragans | 18.3% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Corbin Carroll | — | vs Reynaldo López | 17.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Robbie Ray | 16.2% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Ketel Marte | — | vs Reynaldo López | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Rafael Devers | — | vs David Peterson | 15.7% | Home Run |
| #6 | Salvador Perez | — | vs Taj Bradley | 15.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | George Springer | — | vs Sean Burke | 14.8% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Matt Olson | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 14.4% | Home Run |
| #9 | Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Taj Bradley | 14.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 14.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Austin Riley | — | vs Ryne Nelson | 13.5% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Vinnie Pasquantino | — | vs Taj Bradley | 13.4% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Sean Burke | 13.3% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Matt Wallner | — | vs Cole Ragans | 12.8% | Home Run |
| #15 | Josh Bell | — | vs Cole Ragans | 12.8% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Chicago White Sox | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 | |
| Cole Ragans | Minnesota Twins | 9.6 | 8 | -1.6 | |
| Ryne Nelson | Atlanta Braves | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 | |
| Robbie Ray | New York Mets | 6.6 | 7 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Sean Burke | Toronto Blue Jays | 6.4 | 7 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Taj Bradley | Kansas City Royals | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| David Peterson | San Francisco Giants | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Reynaldo López | Arizona Diamondbacks | 2.0 | 3 | +1.0 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jung Hoo Lee | — | vs David Peterson | 72.0% | No Hit |
| Bo Bichette | — | vs Robbie Ray | 71.6% | Hit |
| Ernie Clement | — | vs Sean Burke | 71.6% | Hit |
| Luis Arraez | — | vs David Peterson | 70.7% | Hit |
| George Springer | — | vs Sean Burke | 70.2% | Hit |
| Maikel Garcia | — | vs Taj Bradley | 69.7% | Hit |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | — | vs Sean Burke | 69.6% | Hit |
| Geraldo Perdomo | — | vs Reynaldo López | 69.6% | Hit |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Taj Bradley | 69.5% | Hit |
| Alejandro Kirk | — | vs Sean Burke | 69.5% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Robbie Ray | 69.0% | Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Reynaldo López | 68.8% | No Hit |
| Lenyn Sosa | — | vs Dylan Cease | 68.2% | No Hit |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | — | vs Taj Bradley | 68.1% | Hit |
| Jorge Polanco | — | vs Robbie Ray | 68.0% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Rafael Devers — 15.7% HR probability
- Matt Olson — 14.4% HR probability
- Josh Bell — 12.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Robbie Ray — proj 6.6, recorded 7
- Sean Burke — proj 6.4, recorded 7
- David Peterson — proj 4.9, recorded 5
Biggest Surprises
- Ryne Nelson — proj 7.7, recorded 3
- Dylan Cease — proj 10.2, recorded 6
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Rafael Devers. Model HR probability 15.7% — result: Home Run.
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