MLB Results — April 2, 2026

MLB Model Results — April 2, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

#1 Byron Buxton— · vs Cole Ragans 18.3% No Home Run

#2 Corbin Carroll— · vs Reynaldo López 17.0% No Home Run

#3 Juan Soto— · vs Robbie Ray 16.2% No Home Run

#4 Ketel Marte— · vs Reynaldo López 15.9% No Home Run

#5 Rafael Devers— · vs David Peterson 15.7% Home Run

#6 Salvador Perez— · vs Taj Bradley 15.2% No Home Run

#7 George Springer— · vs Sean Burke 14.8% No Home Run

#8 Matt Olson— · vs Ryne Nelson 14.4% Home Run

#9 Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Taj Bradley 14.1% No Home Run

#10 Ronald Acuña Jr.— · vs Ryne Nelson 14.0% No Home Run

#11 Austin Riley— · vs Ryne Nelson 13.5% No Home Run

#12 Vinnie Pasquantino— · vs Taj Bradley 13.4% No Home Run

#13 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Sean Burke 13.3% No Home Run

#14 Matt Wallner— · vs Cole Ragans 12.8% Home Run

#15 Josh Bell— · vs Cole Ragans 12.8% Home Run

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Dylan Ceasevs Chicago White Sox 10.2 6 -4.2

Cole Ragansvs Minnesota Twins 9.6 8 -1.6

Ryne Nelsonvs Atlanta Braves 7.7 3 -4.7

Robbie Rayvs New York Mets 6.6 7 +0.4On target

Sean Burkevs Toronto Blue Jays 6.4 7 +0.6On target

Taj Bradleyvs Kansas City Royals 5.0 3 -2.0

David Petersonvs San Francisco Giants 4.9 5 +0.1On target

Reynaldo Lópezvs Arizona Diamondbacks 2.0 3 +1.0On target

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Jung Hoo Lee— · vs David Peterson 72.0% No Hit

Bo Bichette— · vs Robbie Ray 71.6% Hit

Ernie Clement— · vs Sean Burke 71.6% Hit

Luis Arraez— · vs David Peterson 70.7% Hit

George Springer— · vs Sean Burke 70.2% Hit

Maikel Garcia— · vs Taj Bradley 69.7% Hit

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.— · vs Sean Burke 69.6% Hit

Geraldo Perdomo— · vs Reynaldo López 69.6% Hit

Bobby Witt Jr.— · vs Taj Bradley 69.5% Hit

Alejandro Kirk— · vs Sean Burke 69.5% Hit

Juan Soto— · vs Robbie Ray 69.0% Hit

Ketel Marte— · vs Reynaldo López 68.8% No Hit

Lenyn Sosa— · vs Dylan Cease 68.2% No Hit

Vinnie Pasquantino— · vs Taj Bradley 68.1% Hit

Jorge Polanco— · vs Robbie Ray 68.0% No Hit

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Rafael Devers — 15.7% HR probability
Matt Olson — 14.4% HR probability
Josh Bell — 12.8% HR probability

Top Strikeout Calls

Robbie Ray — proj 6.6, recorded 7
Sean Burke — proj 6.4, recorded 7
David Peterson — proj 4.9, recorded 5

Biggest Surprises

Ryne Nelson — proj 7.7, recorded 3
Dylan Cease — proj 10.2, recorded 6

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Rafael Devers. Model HR probability 15.7% — result: Home Run.

Live on EdgeRanked

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