Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — March 29, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
12
Games covered
342
Hitters evaluated
24
Pitchers evaluated
March 29, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs MacKenzie Gore | 22.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Slade Cecconi | 20.2% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Jo Adell | — | vs Tatsuya Imai | 19.3% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | vs Shane Baz | 18.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | James Wood | — | vs Shota Imanaga | 18.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Dustin May | 17.8% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | vs Bailey Ober | 17.3% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | — | vs Jake Irvin | 17.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Oneil Cruz | — | vs Nolan McLean | 17.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Juan Soto | New York Mets | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 16.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Zach Neto | — | vs Tatsuya Imai | 16.3% | Home Run |
| #12 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | vs Tatsuya Imai | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Max Meyer | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Taylor Ward | — | vs Bailey Ober | 15.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | George Springer | — | vs Luis Morales | 15.8% | Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9.9 | 8 | -1.9 | |
| Eric Lauer | Athletics | 9.9 | 9 | -0.9 | On Target |
| Connelly Early | Cincinnati Reds | 9.0 | 6 | -3.0 | |
| Jesús Luzardo | Texas Rangers | 8.9 | 7 | -1.9 | |
| Emerson Hancock | Cleveland Guardians | 8.6 | 9 | +0.4 | On Target |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | New York Mets | 8.1 | 8 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Shota Imanaga | Washington Nationals | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 | On Target |
| MacKenzie Gore | Philadelphia Phillies | 7.0 | 7 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Max Meyer | Colorado Rockies | 6.8 | 5 | -1.8 | |
| Shane Baz | Minnesota Twins | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| Grant Holmes | Kansas City Royals | 6.1 | 4 | -2.1 | |
| Steven Matz | St. Louis Cardinals | 6.1 | 2 | -4.1 | |
| Rhett Lowder | Boston Red Sox | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Tatsuya Imai | Los Angeles Angels | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Seth Lugo | Atlanta Braves | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Clement | — | vs Luis Morales | 71.4% | No Hit |
| Gunnar Henderson | Baltimore Orioles | vs Bailey Ober | 70.9% | Hit |
| Josh Naylor | — | vs Slade Cecconi | 70.8% | No Hit |
| Bo Bichette | — | vs Carmen Mlodzinski | 70.6% | No Hit |
| Jacob Wilson | — | vs Eric Lauer | 70.6% | Hit |
| Sal Frelick | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Anthony Kay | 70.3% | Hit |
| Alec Burleson | — | vs Steven Matz | 70.2% | No Hit |
| Alec Bohm | — | vs MacKenzie Gore | 70.2% | No Hit |
| Ryan O'Hearn | — | vs Nolan McLean | 70.0% | Hit |
| Brice Turang | — | vs Anthony Kay | 69.8% | Hit |
| Carlos Correa | — | vs Jack Kochanowicz | 69.6% | No Hit |
| Jose Altuve | — | vs Jack Kochanowicz | 69.6% | Hit |
| Nico Hoerner | — | vs Jake Irvin | 69.6% | Hit |
| Maikel Garcia | — | vs Grant Holmes | 69.4% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs MacKenzie Gore | 69.2% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Zach Neto — 16.3% HR probability
- George Springer — 15.8% HR probability
- Brandon Lowe — 14.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Emerson Hancock — proj 8.6, recorded 9
- MacKenzie Gore — proj 7.0, recorded 7
- Slade Cecconi — proj 4.8, recorded 5
Biggest Surprises
- Steven Matz — proj 6.1, recorded 2
- Connelly Early — proj 9.0, recorded 6
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Zach Neto. Model HR probability 16.3% — result: Home Run.
Explore More