MLB Model Results — October 3, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded home run projections are available for this slate.
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | San Diego Padres | 7.8 | 6 | -1.8 | |
| Tarik Skubal | Atlanta Braves | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 | On Target |
| Parker Messick | Chicago White Sox | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Gerrit Cole | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Robbie Ray | Milwaukee Brewers | 4.2 | 1 | -3.2 | |
| Drew Rasmussen | New York Yankees | 4.0 | 10 | +6.0 | |
| Hagen Smith | Cleveland Guardians | 2.0 | 4 | +2.0 | |
| Dylan Dodd | Los Angeles Dodgers | 1.7 | 4 | +2.3 |
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
No graded hit projections are available for this slate.
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Strikeout Calls
- Gerrit Cole — proj 5.0, recorded 5
- Drew Rasmussen — proj 4.0, recorded 10
- Hagen Smith — proj 2.0, recorded 4
Biggest Surprises
- Drew Rasmussen — proj 4.0, recorded 10
- Robbie Ray — proj 4.2, recorded 1
See today's slate the same way
This is a graded past slate. EdgeRanked publishes the same home run, strikeout, and hit probability analysis for today's games before first pitch.
3-day free trial. The full results archive stays free.